679
FXUS63 KGLD 200025
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
625 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION INCREASE FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 620 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
HAVE CONTINUED TO BACK OFF POPS FOR THIS EVENING AND THE
REMINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FAVORING DRIER MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING INTO
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. THE FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO
BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 23 FAVORING EASTERN GOVE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES
AT THIS POINT AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY. DUE TO THIS FURTHER SOUTH
TRACK HAVE ALSO BROUGHT DOWN TEMPERATURES FOR TONIGHT AS WELL
DUE TO MORE ANTICIPATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
PERIODS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
TONIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THERE ARE VARYING DEGREES OF MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER
THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH, MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO
PINPOINT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. IN GENERAL, THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINFALL WILL BE EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE A 20%-40%
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO AROUND 30 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE
LOWER TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE (20%-60%)
OF LIGHT RAINFALL IN THE MORNING FOR THOSE EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER
IN THE MORNING BEFORE 850-500MB MOISTURE DECREASES, PRODUCING
DECREASING CLOUDINESS FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON. A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY, AHEAD
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER AS THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
CONTINUING EAST OVERNIGHT. WE'LL HAVE A 20%-30% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY. THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE SO THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF AREAL
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME, BUT IS NOT SHOWING CONSISTENCY COMPARED TO
THE GFS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW/AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB FROM THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME ON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE SURFACE TO
850MB RANGE AS TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGES WILL FOCUS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES THAT ACCOMPANY EACH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS A BIT DRIER ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
SURFACE COLD FRONTS.
LOOKING FOR DEWPTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING HOURS, HIGHEST NUMBERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, AND WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
27, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS THUNDER. CLOUD COVER
COULD HELP TO INHIBIT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER CHANCES, BUT SOME DECENT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WILL HAVE 50-70%
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND A 30-50% CHANCE THEREAFTER. BASED ON
THE TRACK/TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, HIGHEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25.
THE LATEST GEFS TOTAL QPF DOES FAVOR THE EASTERN CWA FOR HIGHEST
TOTALS, WITH THE 850 TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTS NOT TAPPING INTO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY UNTIL THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
BE STAYING CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS COULD MIX INTO
THE EQUATION AS THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME APPROACHES.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 70S, WITH WARMEST
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO SHARON
SPRINGS, KANSAS. MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY,
WITH 60S AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY. GOING INTO SATURDAY, WARMER WITH
MAINLY 70S AREA-WIDE ONCE AGAIN. SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST. WARMEST LOCALES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S, WARMEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. SOME LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 50F.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 453 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD. AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER IS FORECAST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF
THE OF THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS SSE WINDS ARE SLOWLY FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT AROUND 05-09 KNOTS FOR THE ENTIRE
DURATION OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. INCLUDING AMD NOT SKED FOR THE
KMCK TAF DUE TECHNICAL ISSUES WITH THE ASOS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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