927
FXUS63 KGLD 200813
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION INCREASE FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH JUST ENTERING THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
WITH AS FAR SOUTH AS THESE FEATURES ARE, CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY ARE
NEAR ZERO AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR TO IMPACT THE AREA OTHER
THAN THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA AND
MAYBE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS IN THE OUTER BANDS OF THE LOW. WITH THE
SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, THE
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE 60S TODAY.
TONIGHT, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO
OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 MPH. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS, LOW ARE LIKELY
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO START CLEAR AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. THE 80S ARE MORE LIKELY EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83. DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS AND ALLOW FOR SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CHANCES
WITH DRY AIR FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE LOW
MAY BE TOO BROAD (WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS) AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY MAY NOT DROP BELOW 15% UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. AS SUCH, DIDN'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO
SWING OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING EAST OVER
THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM ISN'T FORECAST TO DO MUCH AS
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE UNLIKELY OR ISOLATED DUE TO AN OVERALL
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30S AND
40S WITH THE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH AS THE LOW PASSES, THOUGH
THEY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THE LOW IS BROAD OR SLOWS OVER
THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE WINDS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 114 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY. THE LATEST
NBM GUIDANCE IS FAVORING MORE SO THE ECMWF IN TERMS OF AREAL
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME, BUT IS NOT SHOWING CONSISTENCY COMPARED TO
THE GFS.
SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH A COMBINATION OF
ZONAL FLOW/AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB FROM THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME ON
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THESE SYSTEMS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES EACH DAY, THE FOCUS WILL BE ON THE SURFACE TO
850MB RANGE AS TROUGH/FRONT PASSAGES WILL FOCUS AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ALONG THE BOUNDARIES THAT ACCOMPANY EACH MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE. THE GFS IS A BIT DRIER ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE WEEK
DUE TO STRONG RIDGING FROM THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
SURFACE COLD FRONTS.
LOOKING FOR DEWPTS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S DURING THE AFTERNOON/
EVENING HOURS, HIGHEST NUMBERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, AND WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
27, THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS THUNDER. CLOUD COVER
COULD HELP TO INHIBIT AT LEAST SOME THUNDER CHANCES, BUT SOME DECENT
RAIN IS POSSIBLE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY WILL HAVE 50-70%
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION, AND A 30-50% CHANCE THEREAFTER. BASED ON
THE TRACK/TIMING OF THESE SYSTEMS, HIGHEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR EAST
OF HIGHWAY 25.
THE LATEST GEFS TOTAL QPF DOES FAVOR THE EASTERN CWA FOR HIGHEST
TOTALS, WITH THE 850 TROUGH/SURFACE FRONTS NOT TAPPING INTO THE
DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY UNTIL THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. FOR NOW
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY/TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS THROUGH THE REGION, WILL
BE STAYING CLOSE TO THE NBM, BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER GFS COULD MIX INTO
THE EQUATION AS THE MIDWEEK TIMEFRAME APPROACHES.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL RANGE IN THE 70S, WITH WARMEST
AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO SHARON
SPRINGS, KANSAS. MID 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY,
WITH 60S AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY. GOING INTO SATURDAY, WARMER WITH
MAINLY 70S AREA-WIDE ONCE AGAIN. SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST. WARMEST LOCALES SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH
NIGHT MAINLY IN THE 40S, WARMEST EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. SOME LOCALES
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MAY ONLY DROP TO AROUND 50F.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 950 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS NEW MEXICO WHERE
AN INCREASE IN SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS IS FORECAST FOR OVERNIGHT
BUT VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL. THE LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST BEFORE EJECTING INTO
EASTERN KANSAS SUNDAY WITH SKIES SLOWLY CLEARING WEST TO EAST.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE TRICKY WITH SOME BACKING OF
THE WINDS TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. KMCK HOWEVER IS
FORECAST TO VEER BACK TO THE EAST AFTER BACKING TO THE NORTH DUE
TO PROXIMITY OF THE EJECTING LOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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