985
FXUS63 KGLD 201913
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION INCREASE FROM NEXT WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH JUST ENTERING THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. WITH AS FAR SOUTH AS THESE FEATURES ARE, CHANCES FOR RAIN
TODAY ARE NEAR ZERO AS THEY WILL LIKELY BE TOO FAR TO IMPACT
THE AREA OTHER THAN THE INITIAL CLOUD COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA AND MAYBE A FEW SMALL SHOWERS IN THE OUTER BANDS
OF THE LOW. WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY, THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND
ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
UNDERNEATH SUNNY SKIES, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO
THE 60S TODAY.
TONIGHT, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 MPH. WITH THE WESTERLY WINDS, LOW ARE
LIKELY TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
TOMORROW, SKIES ARE FORECAST TO START CLEAR AND ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOW 80S. THE 80S ARE MORE
LIKELY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. DURING THE DAY, AN UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE WINDS AND ALLOW
FOR SOME CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CHANCES WITH DRY AIR FORECAST TO
BE IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, THE LOW MAY BE TOO BROAD
(WEAKENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WINDS) AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY MAY NOT DROP BELOW 15% UNTIL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WHEN
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED. AS SUCH, DIDN'T HAVE THE
CONFIDENCE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME.
TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT, THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST
TO SWING OVER THE PLAINS WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
EAST OVER THE AREA. CURRENTLY, THIS SYSTEM ISN'T FORECAST TO DO
MUCH AS PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE UNLIKELY OR ISOLATED DUE TO AN
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 30S AND 40S WITH THE WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH AS THE
LOW PASSES, THOUGH THEY COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER IF THE
LOW IS BROAD OR SLOWS OVER THE AREA AND WEAKENS THE WINDS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
PER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS
THAT BOTH MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BOTH MODELS BRING A 500MB SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE POSITION OF A
FRONT/LOW DO DIFFER BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES THE
SYSTEM MORE INTO THE CWA ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. THIS WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF/FORCING INTO THE REGION ALONG
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST RAIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. NBM
GUIDANCE CLOSER STILL TO THE ECMWF W/ THIS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
STORMS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
COINCIDES WELL WITH THE FRONT BEING A BIT CLOSER TO THE CWA.
THE SYSTEM CLEARS EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB. THIS WILL
TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER
IN THE SPEED OF THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, AIDED BY INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON S/SE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE. THERE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) OVER THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD, BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES MORE EAST TOWARDS THE CWA THAT INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION(00Z-06Z SATURDAY).
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, BETTER CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE FRONT/LOW COMING IN
FROM THE WEST IS STALLED DUE TO RIDGE FROM SURFACE TO 500MB BLOCKING
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FEEDING INTO THE REGION. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY, THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD COME ABOUT IN EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO THE BURLINGTON,
COLORADO AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, UPPER 50S WEST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.
AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, 60S ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO 70S
FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAINLY MID 40S WEST INTO THE LOWER 50S
EAST.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
NORTHWEST WIND UP TO 10KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE FROM 02Z-04Z. AFTER 05Z, SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 11KTS
THROUGH 15Z INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE 12-15KT RANGE WITH SOME
GUSTS FROM 16Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
NORTHERLY WIND AROUND 7KTS AT TAF ISSUANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
00Z, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FROM 01Z-14Z. AFTER 15Z, WINDS
BECOME WESTERLY AT SPEEDS UP TO 10KTS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
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