810
FXUS63 KGLD 210247
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
847 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING IN
FLOOD PRONE AREA
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
A SUBTLE 700MB SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700-500MB MOISTURE. ECHOS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
SO HAVE ADDED IN A PERIOD OF 15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE
TO A LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSION , ALBEIT STILL AROUND 20-25
DEGREES, WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT A RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE AT
SOME THE PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT A ROGUE GUST
AROUND 45-50 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH DOWNSHEAR VECTORS
AROUND 40 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME YUMA AND NORTHERN KIT CARSON
COUNTIES ARE FAVORED BUT DID EXTEND THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATIONA LITTLE FURTHER EAST DUE TO ALREADY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR MONDAY AS THE POSITIONING OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (FURNACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA)
LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE RED FLAG
WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
TRACK AS WINDS REMAIN FORECAST TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH AND RH
FALLS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. I'M THINKING THAT THE WINDS MAY
BE MORE OF A "HIGHER" SUSTAINED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PRESENT
THROUGHOUT NEARLY THE ENTIRE MIXING LAYER IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. I'M ALSO CONTINUING TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AS WELL MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 FORMING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY, HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BE INTERESTING. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE A HANDFUL OF ECMWF MEMBERS THAT HAVE THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL; MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING
HOWEVER IS ONLY AROUND 5%. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A 700MB VORT MAX. THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SIGNAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
750-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 38 KNOTS OF SHEAR. HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH AN EBWD AROUND 39 KNOTS AND
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AS 47
KNOTS OF A CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTOR IS SEEN ON BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
A CLEAR SKY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 30S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY, AHEAD
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
CONTINUING EAST OVERNIGHT. I'VE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 20% RANGE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY IN THE 21Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE TIMING AND QPF FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS
MODELS. OVERNIGHT, WE'LL HAVE 30%-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A
40%-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY,
INCREASING INTO THE 60%-90% RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE
NAM MODEL IS MUCH COLDER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO UPPER 50S UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF 850-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS, THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK RATHER HIGH/TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN A
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. IN FACT, WE MAY BE IN A LULL BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT ONE REACHING
FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
GEFS MODEL 6 HOUR QPF SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE NBM QPF SO FOR NOW THERE
WONT BE ANY CHANGES.
THE GEFS/EPS QPF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES
THROUGH, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
***8:31PM MT UPDATE: HAVE BEEN SEEING A FAVORABLE AND CONTINUED
SIGNAL FOR THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAIN SETUP WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
SHORTWAVE AFTER 00Z IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LEADING
TO A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A FAVORED ESE UPSLOPE
PATTERN AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HELP SUPPORT THE
RAINFALL AND HELP LEAD TO THE LONGEVITY OF THE SYSTEM. OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE CORFIDI
UPSHEAR AND DOWNSHEAR VECTORS TO AROUND 10 KNOTS WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT SLOW MOVING STORMS. STRAIGHT LINED HODOGRAPHS ALSO
SUPPORT SPLITTING OF CELLS WHICH AGAIN WOULD FAVOR ADDITIONAL
UPDRAFTS WITH COLD POOLS. PWAT VALUES OF 0.9-1.1 INCHES ARE
ALSO FAVORED IN ALL GUIDANCE WHICH FURTHER RAISES MY CONFIDENCE
IN THIS. WITH THIS IN PLACE HAVE AROUND 50% CONFIDENCE IN
FLOODING OF FLOOD PRONE AREAS AND CITY STREETS AND AROUND
10-20% IN FLASH FLOODING. CONFIDENCE WOULD BE HIGHER IN THESE
HAZARDS IF IT WASN'T FOR THE DRY SOILS IN PLACE ALREADY. THIS
WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING DAYS AND SEE IF
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS**
PER THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF, THERE CONTINUES TO BE SIGNS
THAT BOTH MODELS ARE IN SOME AGREEMENT TO BRING IN CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY.
FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT, BOTH MODELS BRING A 500MB SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION. AT THE SURFACE, THE POSITION OF A
FRONT/LOW DO DIFFER BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS. GFS IS A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA BORDER, WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES THE
SYSTEM MORE INTO THE CWA ALONG THE KS/NE BORDER. THIS WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN THE AMOUNT OF QPF/FORCING INTO THE REGION ALONG
THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW THERE IS A 60-80% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST RAIN TO
IMPACT THE AREA, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. NBM
GUIDANCE CLOSER STILL TO THE ECMWF W/ THIS ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
STORMS FROM MID MORNING ONWARD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS
COINCIDES WELL WITH THE FRONT BEING A BIT CLOSER TO THE CWA.
THE SYSTEM CLEARS EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, WITH SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AHEAD OF AMPLIFIED RIDGING AT 500MB. THIS WILL
TRAVERSE THE PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE GUIDANCE DOES DIFFER
IN THE SPEED OF THE RIDGE PUSHING EAST LATE IN THE DAY. ANOTHER LOW
WILL DEVELOP ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE, AIDED BY INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON S/SE FLOW INTO THE AREA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
RIDGE. THERE WILL BE SHOWER CHANCES (30-50%) OVER THE 24-HOUR
PERIOD, BUT IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
PUSHES MORE EAST TOWARDS THE CWA THAT INCREASED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION(00Z-06Z SATURDAY).
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THERE WILL BE A 30-60% CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION, BETTER CHANCES IN THE EAST. THE FRONT/LOW COMING IN
FROM THE WEST IS STALLED DUE TO RIDGE FROM SURFACE TO 500MB BLOCKING
ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THE ECMWF IS MORE GENEROUS WITH QPF
POTENTIAL FEEDING INTO THE REGION. WITH THE INCONSISTENCY, THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD COME ABOUT IN EASTERN AREAS.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY TO RANGE MAINLY IN THE 60S
WEST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK, NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO THE BURLINGTON,
COLORADO AREA. SOUTH OF THIS LINE, UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EXPECTED.
GOING INTO FRIDAY, UPPER 50S WEST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.
AND FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, 60S ON SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO 70S
FOR SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S WEST TO MID
40S EAST ON THURSDAY NIGHT, LOW TO MID 40S FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, AND FOR
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND MAINLY MID 40S WEST INTO THE LOWER 50S
EAST.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 455 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN FORECASTED FOR EACH TERMINAL. I AM
WATCHING FOR A LOW CHANCE (LESS THAN 10%) OF SOME VIRGA OR
PERHAPS SPRINKLES MOVING TOWARDS THE KGLD TERMINAL AROUND 02-04Z
THIS EVENING WITH A EVEN LOWER CHANCE OF GUSTY TO STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AROUND 45-50 MPH SO WILL MONITOR THAT POTENTIAL
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHER THAN THAT LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS STARTING AROUND 17Z MONDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON MDT /1 PM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM
CDT/ MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN/TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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