597
FXUS63 KGLD 211937
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
137 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
- RAIN CHANCES OVER THE REGION INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME MINOR FLOODING IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 831 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
A SUBTLE 700MB SHORTWAVE IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN 700-500MB MOISTURE. ECHOS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS MORGAN AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN
COLORADO. THIS SIGNAL HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
SO HAVE ADDED IN A PERIOD OF 15% CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS EVENING DUE
TO A LOWERING DEW POINT DEPRESSION , ALBEIT STILL AROUND 20-25
DEGREES, WHICH WOULD AT LEAST SUPPORT A RELATIVE BETTER CHANCE AT
SOME THE PRECIPITATION HITTING THE GROUND. OVERALL NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT A ROGUE GUST
AROUND 45-50 MPH CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH DOWNSHEAR VECTORS
AROUND 40 KNOTS. AT THIS TIME YUMA AND NORTHERN KIT CARSON
COUNTIES ARE FAVORED BUT DID EXTEND THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION LITTLE FURTHER EAST DUE TO ALREADY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN LOWER DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS.
A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR MONDAY AS THE POSITIONING OF THIS DEVELOPING LOW WILL LEAD
TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS (FURNACE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA)
LEADING TO HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. THE RED FLAG
WARNING THAT WAS ISSUED ON THE DAY SHIFT CONTINUES TO LOOK ON
TRACK AS WINDS REMAIN FORECAST TO GUST AROUND 25 MPH AND RH
FALLS IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS. I'M THINKING THAT THE WINDS MAY
BE MORE OF A "HIGHER" SUSTAINED WITH 20-25 KNOTS PRESENT
THROUGHOUT NEARLY THE ENTIRE MIXING LAYER IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. I'M ALSO CONTINUING TO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
SHOWERS AS WELL MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR SOME
SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 34 FORMING ALONG A WEAK COLD
FRONT THAT LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.
TUESDAY, HAS SOME POTENTIAL TO BE INTERESTING. THE COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES THROUGH MONDAY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
AS CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG IT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE
ARE A HANDFUL OF ECMWF MEMBERS THAT HAVE THE FRONT STALLING
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA WHICH WOULD LEAD TO SOME
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL; MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING
HOWEVER IS ONLY AROUND 5%. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OFF OF THE PALMER DIVIDE DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH A 700MB VORT MAX. THERE IS FAIRLY
DECENT SIGNAL THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CWA
DURING THE EVENING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH
750-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE ALONG WITH 38 KNOTS OF SHEAR. HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE IS POSSIBLE WITH AN EBWD AROUND 39 KNOTS AND
UNSTABLE LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS AS 47
KNOTS OF A CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTOR IS SEEN ON BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE AGAIN FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2025
TONIGHT...SCATTERED CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING WILL DISSIPATE LEAVING
A CLEAR SKY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 30S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...ZONAL FLOW IS FORECAST DURING THE DAY, AHEAD
OF A BROAD UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT. BREEZY
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY. DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST
DURING THE DAY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
EVENING ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS THERE MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB LAYER AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOWER 80S
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING,
CONTINUING EAST OVERNIGHT. I'VE NUDGED POPS INTO THE 20% RANGE FOR
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHWEST YUMA COUNTY IN THE 21Z-00Z
TIMEFRAME GIVEN THE TIMING AND QPF FORECASTS FROM THE NAM/GFS
MODELS. OVERNIGHT, WE'LL HAVE 30%-50% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S
TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A
40%-70% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY,
INCREASING INTO THE 60%-90% RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S. THE
NAM MODEL IS MUCH COLDER WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 40S
TO UPPER 50S UNDER CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
LOOKING AT GFS/ECMWF 850-500MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECASTS, THE
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK RATHER HIGH/TOO OPTIMISTIC GIVEN A
LACK OF MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER. IN FACT, WE MAY BE IN A LULL BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY NIGHTS SYSTEM EXITING THE AREA AND THE NEXT ONE REACHING
FAR EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
GEFS MODEL 6 HOUR QPF SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE NBM QPF SO FOR NOW THERE
WONT BE ANY CHANGES.
THE GEFS/EPS QPF FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOWS WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE MOVES
THROUGH, SUPPORTING THE CURRENT LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH 12Z GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED 500MB
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WORKS IN TANDEM ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION OF
NORTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY, TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS
THE WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, THE CWA WILL SEE
INCREASED, UPSLOPE MOISTURE AND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FROM
00Z-12Z SATURDAY, APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LEE-SIDE LOW WILL
FUNNEL INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON S/SE FLOW. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR A 30-60% CHANCE IN PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 FOR BOTH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL MAKE A
SLOW PUSH EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. GUIDANCE
IS MIXED AS TO THE EXTENT EASTWARD OF THIS DUE TO THE BLOCKING SFC-
500MB RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT S/SE
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, PROVIDING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PW VALUES RANGING 0.80-1.00" MAINLY
EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A GENERAL 40-50% CHANCE DURING
THE DAY GIVES WAY TO A 40-70% CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EVENING, BEST CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. THESE CHANCES INCLUDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT NOW LINGERS/EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION FOR THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF LOW QPF
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME, BUT WITH THE SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE
REGION, THE NBM DOES CARRY AT LEAST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE EAST. THIS LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE COMPARED THE THE GFS/ECMWF WHERE THE FRONT IS
POSITIONED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SW
THAT MAY HELP TO CUT BACK ON MOISTURE CHANCES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
AND RETROGRADES A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A 500MB
SHORTWAVE THAT GUIDANCE BRINGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS MORE INCREASED
MOISTURE POTENTIAL COMPARED THE THE ECMWF, WHICH WRAPS IN DRIER AIR
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WHILE THE GFS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
AS AN OPEN WAVE, THE ECMWF IS A SLOWER CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS
MORE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
WEST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S MAINLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MID 60S EAST TO AROUND 70F IN THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S
SUNDAY W/ WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AND FOR NEXT
MONDAY, 70S ARE EXPECTED W/ WARMEST SPOTS ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK, NE SOUTHWEST TO SHARON SPRINGS, KANSAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT, MID
40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, TRENDING COLDER
FROM WEST TO EAST W/ LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. EAST OF THERE, UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. AND
FOR NEXT MONDAY NIGHT, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN COLORADO. EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER, MAINLY 40S EXPECTED W/ SOME LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AROUND 50F.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT MON APR 21 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35KTS ARE FORECAST FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 01Z, SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY
FROM 00Z-03Z.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35KTS ARE FORECAST FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 01Z, WEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS SLOWLY VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 11KTS. HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD BE IN THE
VICINITY FROM 23Z-03Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
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