263
FXUS63 KGLD 211950
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
- CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WITH WIND GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE.
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 20%-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM KIT CARSON TO GOODLAND AND MCCOOK AS ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THE TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH GIVEN FAVORABLE DCAPE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO YUMA
COUNTY TO FLAGLER BY LATE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A
BIT INTO THE 40% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A
40%-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, I'M THINKING THE POPS ARE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TUESDAY NIGHTS
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA IN THE MORNING, LEAVING US IN A LULL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE BELOW 700MB MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND 700-500MB MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. IF CLEARING DEVELOPS
EARLIER AND LASTS LONGER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER. IF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP LAST LONGER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER.
OVERNIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE 70%-90%
RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD WHILE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.70 TO 1.10 INCHES (HIGHEST
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83) WITH 0-5KM WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE NAM/GFS
MODELS, A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
BELOW 700MB, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE. I DONT THINK IT
SUPPORTS THE 50%-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THE RELATIVELY LOW QPF FORECAST
NUMBERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WHILE
A DRY SLOT PERSISTS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AT 60%-80%, POSSIBLY ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
FOR THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE LATEST
RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...BOTH 12Z GUIDANCE RUNS SHOW AN AMPLIFIED 500MB
RIDGE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE WORKS IN TANDEM ALLOWING FOR A TRANSITION OF
NORTHERLY FLOW TO START THE DAY, TO SOUTHEAST BY 00Z SATURDAY. AS
THE WINDS SHIFT MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY, THE CWA WILL SEE
INCREASED, UPSLOPE MOISTURE AND A 20-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. FROM
00Z-12Z SATURDAY, APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LEE-SIDE LOW WILL
FUNNEL INCREASED MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON S/SE FLOW. THERE WILL
BE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY ALLOWING FOR A 30-60% CHANCE IN PRECIP
OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 FOR BOTH SHOWERS
AND STORMS.
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE/LEE-SIDE TROUGH WILL MAKE A
SLOW PUSH EAST OFF THE FRONT RANGE OVER THE 24-HOUR PERIOD. GUIDANCE
IS MIXED AS TO THE EXTENT EASTWARD OF THIS DUE TO THE BLOCKING SFC-
500MB RIDGE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERSISTENT S/SE
FLOW OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY, PROVIDING AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH PW VALUES RANGING 0.80-1.00" MAINLY
EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING INTO
THE UPPER RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY, WHICH WILL HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP
CHANCES GOING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A GENERAL 40-50% CHANCE DURING
THE DAY GIVES WAY TO A 40-70% CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE
EVENING, BEST CHANCES EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. THESE CHANCES INCLUDE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT NOW LINGERS/EXTENDS
OVER THE REGION FOR THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF LOW QPF
POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME, BUT WITH THE SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE
REGION, THE NBM DOES CARRY AT LEAST A 30-40% CHANCE FOR RW/TRW FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE FRONT TO THE EAST. THIS LOOKS MORE
REASONABLE COMPARED THE THE GFS/ECMWF WHERE THE FRONT IS
POSITIONED. THE ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE DRIER AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SW
THAT MAY HELP TO CUT BACK ON MOISTURE CHANCES.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...A LOW FORMS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
AND RETROGRADES A BIT WEST DURING THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A 500MB
SHORTWAVE THAT GUIDANCE BRINGS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS SHOWS MORE INCREASED
MOISTURE POTENTIAL COMPARED THE THE ECMWF, WHICH WRAPS IN DRIER AIR
AHEAD OF THE UPPER SYSTEM. WHILE THE GFS SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION
AS AN OPEN WAVE, THE ECMWF IS A SLOWER CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS
MORE POTENTIAL FOR WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TOWARDS 12Z TUESDAY.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
WEST INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S MAINLY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER.
GOING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, MID 60S EAST TO AROUND 70F IN THE
WEST FOR SATURDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MID 70S THROUGH THE LOWER 80S
SUNDAY W/ WARMEST AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. AND FOR NEXT
MONDAY, 70S ARE EXPECTED W/ WARMEST SPOTS ALONG/EAST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOOK, NE SOUTHWEST TO SHARON SPRINGS, KANSAS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S FRIDAY NIGHT, MID
40S TO LOWER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, TRENDING COLDER
FROM WEST TO EAST W/ LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27. EAST OF THERE, UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. AND
FOR NEXT MONDAY NIGHT, UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S IN COLORADO. EAST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER, MAINLY 40S EXPECTED W/ SOME LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 AROUND 50F.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1040 AM MDT MON APR 21 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35KTS ARE FORECAST FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 01Z, SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS
SHIFT TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. HIGH BASED
SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD BE IN THE VICINITY
FROM 00Z-03Z.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35KTS ARE FORECAST FROM TAF
ISSUANCE THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 01Z, WEST WINDS AROUND 11KTS SLOWLY VEER
TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS UNDER 11KTS. HIGH
BASED SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD BE IN THE
VICINITY FROM 23Z-03Z.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
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