143
FXUS63 KGLD 221933
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
133 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
- STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25; ADDITIONAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
- POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORMS WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THERE ARE QUITE A FEW FAILURE MODES FOR
SEVERE WEDNESDAY WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE SOME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 150 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE A 20%-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM KIT CARSON TO GOODLAND AND MCCOOK AS ENOUGH MOISTURE
IN THE 700-500MB LAYER AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON THE TAIL END OF A WEATHER SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD IS WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH GIVEN FAVORABLE DCAPE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO YUMA
COUNTY TO FLAGLER BY LATE AFTERNOON, SUPPORTING A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT, PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE A
BIT INTO THE 40% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS CURRENTLY CALLING FOR A
40%-80% CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, I'M THINKING THE POPS ARE A BIT ON THE HIGH SIDE,
ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TUESDAY NIGHTS
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA IN THE MORNING, LEAVING US IN A LULL
UNTIL THE AFTERNOON WHEN MOISTURE BELOW 700MB MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH AND 700-500MB MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST, ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. IF CLEARING DEVELOPS
EARLIER AND LASTS LONGER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
HIGHER. IF THE CLOUDS AND PRECIP LAST LONGER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
BIT COOLER.
OVERNIGHT, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE 70%-90%
RANGE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTS NORTHWARD WHILE THE ABOVE
MENTIONED WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE FROM 0.70 TO 1.10 INCHES (HIGHEST
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83) WITH 0-5KM WIND SPEEDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...IT APPEARS THAT BASED ON THE NAM/GFS
MODELS, A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY WHILE
BELOW 700MB, THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE. I DONT THINK IT
SUPPORTS THE 50%-80% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY
IN THE FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THE RELATIVELY LOW QPF FORECAST
NUMBERS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER 60S TO
LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB WHILE
A DRY SLOT PERSISTS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AT 60%-80%, POSSIBLY ON THE HIGH SIDE GIVEN SOMEWHAT
UNFAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF, BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE
FAVORING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH SFC TO 500MB RIDGING PROVIDING A BLOCKING EFFECT TO THE EAST TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRUDGE EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION W/ A 500/700MB WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST, WILL MAKE A SLOW TREK
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY ON INTO
SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DEGRADE FROM THE WEST AS A DRY RH
LAYER FROM 850-700MB COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE
RETREATING SOUTH AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WORKS
SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH DECENT PW VALUES OF 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST TO
THE COLORADO BORDER WITH FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 60-70%
DURING THE DAY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER W/ 40-50% WEST. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS NOW A 50-60% CHANCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, WITH
A 25-40% CHANCE WEST W/ THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD W/ STILL
A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25 W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S/60S TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WRAP-AROUND SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM THE EXITING LOW TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH 500-700MB TROUGH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH OF I-
70 TO BRING ABOUT INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. TRENDING COOLER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK W/
MONDAY HAVING MAINLY 70S WEST OF A LINE FROM MAINLY CULBERTSON,
NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. EAST OF THIS LINE, UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. BY TUESDAY, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED W/ MAINLY 60S IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, TO LOWER TO MID
50S FOR KS/NE. TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40F ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, COLDEST
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF THERE, 40S WILL PERSIST. WARMEST
LOCALES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND UP TO 11KTS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WILL BE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
SUB VFR CIGS (IF THE NAM MODEL IS CORRECT) AFTER ABOUT 12Z.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA
FROM EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z BUT GIVEN THE OVERALL
LACK OF COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE THERE WONT BE A MENTION IN THE
TAF FORECAST.
KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT SPEEDS UP TO 11KTS. SIMILAR TO KGLD, WILL BE WATCHING
FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SUB VFR CIGS (PER NAM MODEL) AFTER ABOUT
15Z. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IN THE
AREA FROM AROUND 03Z-09Z THEN AGAIN AFTER 15Z. GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE AND OVERALL LACK OF COVERAGE, THERE WILL NOT BE A
MENTION IN THE TAF FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...99
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