275
FXUS63 KGLD 230438
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
TONIGHT...A SUBTLE WEATHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT REACHES PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SUPPORTING 20%-30%
POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN A LACK OF STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE 20%-30% RANGE WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY, REMAINING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA IN THE
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. I'VE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT DURING
THE MORNING WITH A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. AS
THE 850-500MB LAYER BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE 30%-60%
RANGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE INCREASES, PROMOTING A LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION. SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB,
INCLUDING THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ITS LOOKING LIKELY A GENERALLY CLOUDY
DAY. I'VE TRIED TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY MODEST
GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. FOR NOW, POPS ARE
IN THE 50%-80% RANGE, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT,
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH, PROVIDING DEEPER MOISTURE
THROUGH ABOUT 500MB. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE 60%-
70% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60
TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. NAM MODEL HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF WE'RE UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ITS LOOKING TO BE A GENERALLY CLOUDY DAY GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WE'LL NEED TO RELY ON THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO PRODUCE OUR
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE 20%-40% RANGE DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT, CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE 50%-70% RANGE AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF, BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE
FAVORING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH SFC TO 500MB RIDGING PROVIDING A BLOCKING EFFECT TO THE EAST TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRUDGE EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION W/ A 500/700MB WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST, WILL MAKE A SLOW TREK
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY ON INTO
SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DEGRADE FROM THE WEST AS A DRY RH
LAYER FROM 850-700MB COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE
RETREATING SOUTH AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WORKS
SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH DECENT PW VALUES OF 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST TO
THE COLORADO BORDER WITH FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 60-70%
DURING THE DAY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER W/ 40-50% WEST. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS NOW A 50-60% CHANCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, WITH
A 25-40% CHANCE WEST W/ THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD W/ STILL
A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25 W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S/60S TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WRAP-AROUND SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM THE EXITING LOW TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH 500-700MB TROUGH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH OF I-
70 TO BRING ABOUT INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. TRENDING COOLER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK W/
MONDAY HAVING MAINLY 70S WEST OF A LINE FROM MAINLY CULBERTSON,
NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. EAST OF THIS LINE, UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. BY TUESDAY, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED W/ MAINLY 60S IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, TO LOWER TO MID
50S FOR KS/NE. TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40F ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, COLDEST
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF THERE, 40S WILL PERSIST. WARMEST
LOCALES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
A DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST LOOKS TO PRESENT ITSELF THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR TONIGHT CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
ROGUE THUNDERSHOWER FOR EACH TERMINAL BUT DUE TO THE SPOTTY
NATURE OF THESE WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW BUT WILL
MONITOR CLOSELY. AM ALSO STARTING TO SEE SOME HINTS AT SOME FOG
POTENTIAL MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO FOR THIS MORNING SO
WILL WATCH CLOSELY AS WELL FOR KGLD. A LOW LEVEL JET IS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL IMPACT EACH TERMINAL. A
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS, PERHAPS SEVERE TO
EACH TERMINAL. THE ONE CAVEAT IS IF OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WILL EMANATE ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND
DISRUPT THE STORM SET UP. THIS IS REASON FOR THE VICINITY
WORDING AND THE PROB30 AS IT STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK RAINFALL
EVENT AS OF NOW. HOWEVER DO HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN
RAINFALL IMPACTING KMCK TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO
THE NEXT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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