957
FXUS63 KGLD 231552
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
952 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES, WIND GUSTS
AROUND 65 MPH AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF STORMS. ANY FLOODING THREAT WOULD BE MAXIMIZED
WHEREVER TRAINING DOES OCCUR.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 854 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG AROUND
PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. CURRENT SHOWER/STORM
ACTIVITY IN THE EAST CONTINUES A SLOW PUSH EASTWARD, WITH
NOTHING SEVERE AT THIS TIME. THE LATEST CAMS(CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING MODELS) CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MORNING ACTIVITY TO CLEAR
THE CWA IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM TO PICK UP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
TONIGHT...A SUBTLE WEATHER SYSTEM EMBEDDED WITHIN NEARLY ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT REACHES PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON,
CONTINUING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SUPPORTING 20%-30%
POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. GIVEN A LACK OF STRONG ELEVATED
INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE IN THE 20%-30% RANGE WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S.
WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE BELOW 700MB INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY, REMAINING OVER THE AREA DURING THE
NIGHT. A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA IN THE
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. I'VE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT DURING
THE MORNING WITH A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS EAST OF HIGHWAY 27. AS
THE 850-500MB LAYER BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE DUE TO THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE 30%-60%
RANGE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
UPPER 70S.
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD AS UPPER JET DIVERGENCE INCREASES, PROMOTING A LARGE AREA
OF PRECIPITATION. SOME EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS THIS SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE BELOW 700MB,
INCLUDING THE BOUNDARY LAYER, ITS LOOKING LIKELY A GENERALLY CLOUDY
DAY. I'VE TRIED TO KEEP THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FAIRLY MODEST
GIVEN AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT. FOR NOW, POPS ARE
IN THE 50%-80% RANGE, MAINLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT,
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE THROUGH, PROVIDING DEEPER MOISTURE
THROUGH ABOUT 500MB. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE 60%-
70% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 60
TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. NAM MODEL HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WHICH IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF WE'RE UNDER WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER
30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...ITS LOOKING TO BE A GENERALLY CLOUDY DAY GIVEN
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WITH A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT OVER THE AREA DURING THE DAY,
WE'LL NEED TO RELY ON THE MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO PRODUCE OUR
PRECIPITATION WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN THE 20%-40% RANGE DURING THE
DAY. OVERNIGHT, CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE 50%-70% RANGE AS A WEATHER
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF, BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE
FAVORING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH SFC TO 500MB RIDGING PROVIDING A BLOCKING EFFECT TO THE EAST TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRUDGE EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION W/ A 500/700MB WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST, WILL MAKE A SLOW TREK
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY ON INTO
SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DEGRADE FROM THE WEST AS A DRY RH
LAYER FROM 850-700MB COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE
RETREATING SOUTH AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WORKS
SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH DECENT PW VALUES OF 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST TO
THE COLORADO BORDER WITH FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 60-70%
DURING THE DAY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER W/ 40-50% WEST. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS NOW A 50-60% CHANCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, WITH
A 25-40% CHANCE WEST W/ THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD W/ STILL
A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25 W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S/60S TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WRAP-AROUND SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM THE EXITING LOW TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH 500-700MB TROUGH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH OF I-
70 TO BRING ABOUT INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. TRENDING COOLER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK W/
MONDAY HAVING MAINLY 70S WEST OF A LINE FROM MAINLY CULBERTSON,
NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. EAST OF THIS LINE, UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. BY TUESDAY, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED W/ MAINLY 60S IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, TO LOWER TO MID
50S FOR KS/NE. TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40F ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, COLDEST
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF THERE, 40S WILL PERSIST. WARMEST
LOCALES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
EXPECTING BOTH TERMINALS(KMCK/KGLD) TO SEE A TRANSITION FROM
VFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BY 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISSUES, EXPECTING AT LEAST 4-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN W/ SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES,
EXPECTING MORE IFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BELOW OVC010 ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. WINDS
MEANDERING EAST-NORTHEAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 10-15KTS.
CONTINUING THE AMD NOT SKED FOR KMCK, AS THERE HAS BEEN
CONTINUED INTERMITTENT COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES WITH THE REPORTING
OF THE ASOS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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