528
FXUS63 KGLD 231956
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
156 PM MDT WED APR 23 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAIN HAZARDS ARE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES, WIND GUSTS
AROUND 65 MPH AND A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR TORNADOES MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
- THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO SLOW MOVING STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR TRAINING OF STORMS. ANY FLOODING THREAT WOULD BE MAXIMIZED
WHEREVER TRAINING DOES OCCUR.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN
THREATS.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2025
ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES ARE MIXED FROM
SUNNY IN SOME LOCALES DOWN TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT
THAT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. A SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO, WHILE CLOUD COVER/CONVECTION PERSIST
IN THE EAST FROM THIS MORNING'S ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ARE VARYING
WIDELY BASED ON THE CURRENT PLACEMENT OF THE FROM. SOME AREAS SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE ARE SEEING SOUTHERLY GUSTY WINDS 25-30 MPH AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80F. AREAS IN THE NORTH, EAST
AND WEST ARE MIXED WITH MAINLY 60S TO LOWER 70S, AND EASTERLY FLOW.
THE MAIN WX CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE GOING TO FOCUS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT RAP40 500/700MB ANALYSES IN TANDEM WITH MID
LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, ARE SHOWING AMPLIFIED RIDGING CONTINUING
TO PUSH SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA, PUTTING THE REGION UNDER W/SW FLOW
ALOFT. THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE RIDGE, AIDING IN THE CONVECTION NOW MAINLY EAST OF THE CWA.
AT THE SURFACE, THERE IS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER WESTERN KANSAS W/ A
SURFACE LOW ATTACHED NEAR THE SE COLORADO/SW KANSAS BORDER. A
DRYLINE DOES EXTEND SOUTH FROM THIS. THERE IS AN 850MB INVERTED
TROUGH OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY
FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 850MB ALONG/SOUTH OF THE FRONT, COMPARED TO
W/SW FLOW ALOFT.
FROM THE LATEST CAMS(HRRR, RAP, NAMNEST), THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS
DOES NOT PICK UP IN INTENSITY UNTIL AROUND THE 00Z THURSDAY
TIMEFRAME FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST, EXPANDING NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
SPC CONTINUES TO CARRY A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE FOR THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA, WITH A MARGINAL RISK IN THE WEST. THERE IS STILL
CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AREA-WIDE. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW AROUND 00Z THAT THERE WILL BE DECENT DCAPE AROUND 1000-1200J/KG
AND MUCAPE/SBCAPE IN THE 1000-1500J/KG RANGE. PROFILES DO SHOW
INVERTED-V'S BUT DO TIGHTEN UP AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. SIG/LARGE
HAIL PARAMETER IS IN THE 1-4 RANGE FOR THE CWA, BEST NORTH. WITH
THIS, STILL LOOKING FOR HAIL POTENTIAL IN THE 1-2" RANGE WITH WINDS
55-65 MPH. THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING WORKING
ALONG THE 850/SFC BOUNDARIES, WITH WEAK SHEAR POTENTIAL. SO CAN'T
RULE OUT A TORNADO THREAT EARLY ON. ALSO THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVING HEAVY
RAIN. PW VALUES APPROACH AN INCH IN THE EAST, SO THIS COULD BE THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY FLOODING CONCERNS.
GUIDANCE CARRIES THE PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT DO SHIFT SOME BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, ALLOWING FOR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OVER
POTENTIAL SEVERE STORMS. SPC DOES CARRY A MARGINAL RISK FOR THE
AREA, BUT BASED ON WHERE THE FRONT MAY SET UP, EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA HAVE THE BEST CHANCE. WIND AND HAIL THREATS REMAIN AS DCAPE
RANGES IN THE 500-700J/KG AND SBCAPE/MUCAPE IN THE 1400-1600J/KG
RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TAPERS FROM WEST TO EAST
THURSDAY EVENING AS UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A WEAK
TROUGH BEHIND THE RIDGE WILL TRIGGER SOME RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES,
ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT WHEN 40-60% CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S,
WARMEST EAST/SOUTHEAST NEAR 70F. ON FRIDAY, MAINLY 50S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S EACH NIGHT, WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT MON APR 21 2025
FROM THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF, BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE ARE
FAVORING THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION.
WITH SFC TO 500MB RIDGING PROVIDING A BLOCKING EFFECT TO THE EAST TO
START OFF THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW TRUDGE EAST INTO THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IN
COMBINATION W/ A 500/700MB WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE EAST, WILL MAKE A SLOW TREK
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY ON INTO
SUNDAY.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL ALSO DEGRADE FROM THE WEST AS A DRY RH
LAYER FROM 850-700MB COMES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A CLOSED
LOW IN THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PEAK OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY BEFORE
RETREATING SOUTH AS THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WORKS
SOUTH.
FOR SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT, DEWPTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, COMBINED WITH DECENT PW VALUES OF 0.80-1.00" AT LEAST TO
THE COLORADO BORDER WITH FUEL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES 60-70%
DURING THE DAY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER W/ 40-50% WEST. BY
SATURDAY NIGHT THERE IS NOW A 50-60% CHANCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25, WITH
A 25-40% CHANCE WEST W/ THE DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD W/ STILL
A 20-40% CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ESPECIALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY
25 W/ DEWPTS IN THE 50S/60S TO KEEP A MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE
FORECAST.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, A 20-30% CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS
EXPANDS FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH AS WRAP-AROUND SURFACE MOISTURE
FROM THE EXITING LOW TO THE NORTH INTERACTS WITH 500-700MB TROUGH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DRY AIR SOUTH OF I-
70 TO BRING ABOUT INCREASED FIRE DANGER ON MONDAY AFTERNOON, AND
WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON SATURDAY ARE GOING TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S
EAST INTO THE LOWER AND MID 70S WEST. THE DIFFERENCE IS DUE TO THE
MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER/CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. MUCH WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S EXPECTED AREA-WIDE. TRENDING COOLER GOING INTO NEXT WEEK W/
MONDAY HAVING MAINLY 70S WEST OF A LINE FROM MAINLY CULBERTSON,
NEBRASKA SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. EAST OF THIS LINE, UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. BY TUESDAY, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED W/ MAINLY 60S IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO, AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 70S EAST OF THERE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS WILL HAVE A WIDE RANGE
FROM THE MID AND UPPER 40S IN NORTHEAST COLORADO, TO LOWER TO MID
50S FOR KS/NE. TRENDING SLIGHTLY COLDER FOR NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHTS WITH MID 30S TO AROUND 40F ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 27, COLDEST
IN NORTHEAST COLORADO. EAST OF THERE, 40S WILL PERSIST. WARMEST
LOCALES WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 951 AM MDT WED APR 23 2025
WITH A FRONT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD,
EXPECTING BOTH TERMINALS(KMCK/KGLD) TO SEE A TRANSITION FROM
VFR CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BY 00Z THURSDAY. EXPECTING THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE REGION, BUT WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING ISSUES, EXPECTING AT LEAST 4-5SM IN LIGHT
RAIN W/ SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES,
EXPECTING MORE IFR CLOUDS TO DEVELOP BELOW OVC010 ALONG WITH
LIGHT RAIN TO PERSIST. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS NEEDED. WINDS
MEANDERING EAST-NORTHEAST FOR BOTH TERMINALS AROUND 10-15KTS.
CONTINUING THE AMD NOT SKED FOR KMCK, AS THERE HAS BEEN
CONTINUED INTERMITTENT COMMUNICATIONS ISSUES WITH THE REPORTING
OF THE ASOS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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