169
FXUS63 KGLD 241935
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
135 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- FOG, POSSIBLY DENSE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
TONIGHT...CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING BUT
THE BETTER CHANCE MAY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE GFS/NAM/HRRR MODELS
BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 20%-40%
RANGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AND WE'RE WATCHING FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO A SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER. ONCE AGAIN, THE 700-500MB LAYER IS RATHER DRY DURING
THE DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DAYTIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 20%-30% RANGE WHICH MAY BE
A BIT OPTIMISTIC. OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 30%-60%
RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO
60 DEGREE RANGE. IF THE NAM/GEM MODELS VERIFY, HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA TO
THE EAST DURING THE DAY. I'M NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING IN,
LEAVING US ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE IN THE
30%-50% RANGE WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE GFS MODEL
HAS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AIDING
IN DEEPENING THE MOISTURE COLUMN. CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE IN THE 30%-60% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20%-50% CHANCE) ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A DRYLINE MAINLY IN THE
VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 27. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH. GFS/GEM MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE
0.5-1KM WIND SPEEDS AND 0-2KM LAPSE RATES FOR BLOWING DUST BASED ON
LOCAL RESEARCH FINDINGS. HOWEVER, GIVEN STEEP (UNFAVORABLE) 2-2.5KM
LAPSE RATES, ITS UNLIKELY THE DUST WOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE
GROUND AND INSTEAD WOULD EASILY LIFT AND DISSIPATE INTO THE
ATMOSPHERE SO FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A BLOWING DUST MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.
OVERNIGHT, THE DRYLINE EXITS THE AREA AND WE SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT SLOWLY DECREASE WHILE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE
LOWER 40S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST) APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY, MOVING INTO THE AREA
DURING THE NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE 850-500MB
LAYER TO SUPPORT A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE
FROM FLAGLER TO NORTON. WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO
MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY...AS MONDAY NIGHTS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, WE WATCH TO OUR
NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES. PRESENTLY, NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL BE A
20%-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20%-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 AM MDT THU APR 24 2025
KGLD...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. OVERALL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW SO AT THIS TIME, ONLY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 18Z-21Z WHERE WIND COVERGENCE IS
SHOWN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY JUST TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE
TERMINAL. THIS AREA SHOULD PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE FOG, POSSIBLE DENSE
FROM AROUND 09Z-14Z.
KMCK...SUB VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 14KTS (HIGHEST WINDS AROUND
06Z). PRESENTLY, NO PRECIPITATION IS IN THE TAF FORECAST BUT
GIVEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ITS POSSIBLE THEY COULD POP
UP THEN DOWN AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME SO WATCH FOR LATER UPDATES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...99
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