409
FXUS63 KGLD 250510
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT, IF ANY, WILL BE LIMITED TO
JUST AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL UP TO
QUARTER SIZED AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH. AREAS OF FOG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP TOWARDS 12Z IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE WIND AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
TONIGHT...CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
GFS/NAM/HRRR MODELS BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE IN THE 20%-40% RANGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AND
WE'RE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. ONCE AGAIN, THE 700-500MB LAYER IS
RATHER DRY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE
20%-30% RANGE WHICH MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 30%-60% RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE. IF THE NAM/GEM MODELS VERIFY, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. I'M NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING
IN, LEAVING US ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE IN THE
30%-50% RANGE WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE GFS MODEL
HAS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AIDING
IN DEEPENING THE MOISTURE COLUMN. CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE IN THE 30%-60% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20%-50%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 27. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH.
GFS/GEM MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE 0.5-1KM WIND SPEEDS AND 0-2KM
LAPSE RATES FOR BLOWING DUST BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH FINDINGS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN STEEP (UNFAVORABLE) 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES, ITS
UNLIKELY THE DUST WOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE GROUND AND
INSTEAD WOULD EASILY LIFT AND DISSIPATE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE SO
FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A BLOWING DUST MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT,
THE DRYLINE EXITS THE AREA AND WE SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT SLOWLY DECREASE WHILE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST) APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE DAY, MOVING INTO THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE
850-500MB LAYER TO SUPPORT A 20%-30% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM FLAGLER TO NORTON. WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WEST OF HIGHWAY 27 DURING THE DAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
TUESDAY...AS MONDAY NIGHTS TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, WE WATCH TO
OUR NORTHWEST AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES. PRESENTLY, NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
WEDNESDAY...AS ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH, THERE WILL
BE A 20%-50% CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 70S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 40S.
THURSDAY...THERE IS CURRENTLY A 20%-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
IFR LIKELY TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO MOST OF FRIDAY DUE TO LOW CEILINGS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT EITHER
TERMINAL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT WILL BE MOVING EAST
AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 12Z. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY
12Z IN THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND COULD FURTHER REDUCE THE FLIGHT
CATEGORY TO VLIFR AROUND 12Z. WHILE ANY VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
WILL PROBABLY ONLY LAST UNTIL MID MORNING AT THE LATEST, THE
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WINDS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024
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