103
FXUS63 KGLD 251812
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1212 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 135 PM MDT THU APR 24 2025
TONIGHT...CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING BUT THE BETTER CHANCE MAY BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
GFS/NAM/HRRR MODELS BRING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE IN THE 20%-40% RANGE. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME FOG AND
WE'RE WATCHING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...IT WILL BE A CLOUDY PERIOD DUE TO A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. ONCE AGAIN, THE 700-500MB LAYER IS
RATHER DRY DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVERNIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. DAYTIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE
20%-30% RANGE WHICH MAY BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC. OVERNIGHT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE IN THE 30%-60% RANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE 50 TO 60 DEGREE
RANGE. IF THE NAM/GEM MODELS VERIFY, HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COLDER IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. LOW
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...MORNING PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA
TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY. I'M NOT TERRIBLY EXCITED ABOUT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT MOVING
IN, LEAVING US ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON MOISTURE BELOW 700MB TO
GENERATE PRECIPITATION. RIGHT NOW, RAINFALL CHANCES ARE IN THE
30%-50% RANGE WHICH MAY BE OPTIMISTIC. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
QUICKLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT, THE GFS MODEL
HAS A WEATHER SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST, AIDING
IN DEEPENING THE MOISTURE COLUMN. CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ARE IN THE 30%-60% RANGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 60 TO 65 DEGREE RANGE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
40S TO LOWER 50S.
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (20%-50%
CHANCE) ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY, ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
DRYLINE MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY 27. BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 40 MPH.
GFS/GEM MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE 0.5-1KM WIND SPEEDS AND 0-2KM
LAPSE RATES FOR BLOWING DUST BASED ON LOCAL RESEARCH FINDINGS.
HOWEVER, GIVEN STEEP (UNFAVORABLE) 2-2.5KM LAPSE RATES, ITS
UNLIKELY THE DUST WOULD BE CONFINED CLOSER TO THE GROUND AND
INSTEAD WOULD EASILY LIFT AND DISSIPATE INTO THE ATMOSPHERE SO
FOR NOW WILL NOT INCLUDE A BLOWING DUST MENTION IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. OVERNIGHT,
THE DRYLINE EXITS THE AREA AND WE SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE.
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT SLOWLY DECREASE WHILE
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE LOWER 40S TO NEAR 60.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500MB TROUGH SWINGING EAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH AS WELL WILL TRIGGER A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RW/TRW MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70. UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY, PROVIDING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, GUIDANCE DOES SPLIT AS TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY,
WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF RW/TRW. THE NBM
CURRENTLY FAVORS THE GFS W/ HIGHEST POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE,
TAPERING TO 20-30% ON THURSDAY. AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE WORKS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP LATE IN THE DAY,
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS RAIN CHANCES.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND 70-80F. THERE IS A WEST
TO EAST GRADIENT ON THIS DAY, WITH WARMEST AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
OBERLIN, KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. GOING INTO TUESDAY,
MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. 70S RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO DROP
BACK TO 60S AND 70S FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A BOUNCE BACK TO THE 70S
FOR NEXT FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S, WARMEST EAST. FOR MONDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS, UPPER 30S WEST INTO THE LOWER 40S EAST. SOME LOCALES IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD SEE WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE UPPER
20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
FOR KGLD, THE TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CEILINGS BELOW
OVC010 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (OVC003-009). 6SM IN PATCHY
FOG THROUGH 20Z, THEN IFR/MVFR FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 05Z
SATURDAY ONWARD. WINDS, NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 05Z
SATURDAY, THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
FOR KMCK, THE TERMINAL WILL SEE INCREASED CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO
VFR BY 02Z SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY 04Z, THEN OVC004-007 FROM 08Z
ONWARD. 4-6SM IN LIGHT RAIN/FOG POSSIBLE FROM 08Z ONWARD. WINDS,
NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY, THEN EAST-
SOUTHEAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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