403
FXUS63 KGLD 251925
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
125 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- FOG EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING DENSE FOG WITH LOW VISIBILITY, IMPACTING TRAVEL.
- MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 123 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY AS THE AREA
REMAINS DOMINATED BY A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE. AS OF 100 PM MT,
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING ONLY IN THE 40S ON NORTHEAST WINDS. PATCHY
FOG IS STILL PREVALENT IN WESTERN LOCALES.
THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE GOING TO
FOCUS ON THE THREAT FOR FOG AREA-WIDE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING,
SHOWERS AND STORMS TONIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND. STORMS ON SUNDAY HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE FOR NEAR
CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY, GUIDANCE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE CWA TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SETTING
UP A SOUTHERLY MOIST FLOW DURING THE DAY. FIRST OFF THOUGH WILL BE
THE RETURN OF SOME POTENTIALLY DENSE FOG AS THE RIDGE RETREATS EAST.
A FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL WORK EAST IN TANDEM WITH A
WEAK 500/700MB SHORTWAVE TONIGHT, BRINGING RW/TRW CHANCES TO THE
AREA AS WELL. THE LATEST CAMS(HRRR, RAP AND NAMNEST) ARE SHOWING
SCATTERED COVERAGE INTO SATURDAY. THIS SCENARIO COULD BE SLOWED SOME
BY THE BLANKET OF LOW CLOUD INHIBITING DAYTIME WARMTH/INSTABILITY.
A TIGHT 1-2 DEGREE T/TD SPREAD IS GOING TO PERSIST AND VISIBILITY
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT SHOWING INCREASED COVERAGE OF FOG
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE RIDGE IN THE AREA. THIS WILL MIX INTO THE
EXPECTED PRECIP. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A DFA(DENSE FOG
ADVISORY) LATER TONIGHT AS SOME AREAS COULD SEE A MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.
GOING INTO SATURDAY, GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, BUT WILL GIVE WAY TO RW/TRW CHANCES (40-80%) DURING
THIS 24 HOUR PERIOD. A LEE-SIDE TROUGH/FRONT SETS UP THROUGH THE
DAY, HELPING TO FUNNEL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM
WEST WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE DAY, PUTTING HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE EAST. A SECOND SHORTWAVE OVERNIGHT WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES AREA-WIDE, WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
MENTION THUNDER.
FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH A SURFACE-850 TROUGH IN THE WEST AND A
BLOCKING RIDGE EAST, A TIGHT SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WILL ENSUE, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO REACH AT LEAST 30-40 MPH. THE SYSTEM WEST
WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE DAY, AND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING AROUND
+20C TO +24C, ABOVE NORMAL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THIS WILL
PUT THE FOCUS FOR RW/TRW IN THE EAST BUT IS DEPENDENT ON THE
POSITIONING OF THE FRONT/TROUGH. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE BEING MET FOR
A PORTION OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY, PROMPTING A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THE WARMER AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE
WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON/CHEYENNE
COUNTIES IN COLORADO COULD BE UNDER NEAR CRITICAL/CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS. FOR NOW, AREAL COVERAGE DOES NOT MET CRITERIA FOR A FIRE
WX WATCH.
FOR TEMPS, LOOKING FOR A COOL DAY ON SATURDAY FOR HIGHS WITH UPPER
50S TO LOW 60S EXPECTED, COOLER IN THE EAST DUE TO EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/RAIN. GOING INTO SUNDAY, MUCH WARMER WITH UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 30S INTO
THE MID 40S. SATURDAY NIGHT, MID 40S TO MID 50S AND FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT, A WIDE RANGE IS EXPECTED WITH LOW 40S EAST GIVING WAY TO MID
50S EAST.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1211 PM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A 500MB TROUGH SWINGING EAST
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT. FRONT SWINGING
THROUGH AS WELL WILL TRIGGER A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RW/TRW MAINLY NORTH
OF I-70. UPPER RIDGE BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR TUESDAY, PROVIDING
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY
ONWARD, GUIDANCE DOES SPLIT AS TO THE TIMING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
THROUGH THE AREA, WITH THE GFS A BIT FASTER FOR WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY,
WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A ROUND OF RW/TRW. THE NBM
CURRENTLY FAVORS THE GFS W/ HIGHEST POPS IN THE 40-60% RANGE,
TAPERING TO 20-30% ON THURSDAY. AMPLIFIED 500MB RIDGE WORKS EAST OF
THE ROCKIES FOR FRIDAY. A LEE SIDE TROUGH SETS UP LATE IN THE DAY,
ALLOWING FOR INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS RAIN CHANCES.
FOR TEMPS, HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL RANGE AROUND 70-80F. THERE IS A WEST
TO EAST GRADIENT ON THIS DAY, WITH WARMEST AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
OBERLIN, KANSAS SOUTHWEST TO TRIBUNE, KANSAS. GOING INTO TUESDAY,
MID TO UPPER 60S EXPECTED. 70S RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY ONLY TO DROP
BACK TO 60S AND 70S FOR THURSDAY AND THEN A BOUNCE BACK TO THE 70S
FOR NEXT FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOR TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHTS WILL BE IN THE 40S, WARMEST EAST. FOR MONDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHTS, UPPER 30S WEST INTO THE LOWER 40S EAST. SOME LOCALES IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO COULD SEE WIND CHILL READINGS INTO THE UPPER
20S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 928 AM MDT FRI APR 25 2025
FOR KGLD, THE TERMINAL WILL CONTINUE TO SEE CEILINGS BELOW
OVC010 THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD (OVC003-009). 6SM IN PATCHY
FOG THROUGH 20Z, THEN IFR/MVFR FOG AND LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 05Z
SATURDAY ONWARD. WINDS, NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 05Z
SATURDAY, THEN SHIFTING SOUTHEAST.
FOR KMCK, THE TERMINAL WILL SEE INCREASED CEILINGS FROM MVFR TO
VFR BY 02Z SATURDAY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, THE
CEILINGS WILL DROP TO MVFR BY 04Z, THEN OVC004-007 FROM 08Z
ONWARD. 4-6SM IN LIGHT RAIN/FOG POSSIBLE FROM 08Z ONWARD. WINDS,
NORTHEAST AROUND 10KTS THROUGH 02Z SATURDAY, THEN EAST-
SOUTHEAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...JN
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