687
FXUS63 KGLD 141826
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1226 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FORECAST WEDNESDAY
EVENING MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36 AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND BLOWING DUST ALONG
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT ARE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL FOSTER NEAR CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AROUND THE HIGHWAY 25/83 VICINITY
CURRENTLY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH ON THE
BACK SIDE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE LOW WITH 60 DEW POINTS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
RED WILLOW, NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE
FOCUS FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON (5- 10% CHANCE). SHOULD A STORM GO IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM/NAMNEST WHICH IS HANDLING
THE DEW POINTS THE BEST OF NOW, INTENSE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SPLITTING
OF CELLS. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL
BE KEY IN IF THIS WILL HAPPEN AS ANY INITIATION MAY BE CONFINED
UP CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THE
LOW IS KEEPING MY CONFIDENCE LOWER VERSUS IF IT WAS FURTHER
WEST.
NOW ONTO ROUND 2 OF STORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
CONVERGENCE MAY YIELD SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. THESE MAY STRUGGLE A BIT DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD REMAIN SUPPORT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A LANDSPOUT AS WELL.
BETTER COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COMES WITH THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHEN JET IN THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVELS. WITH THIS
ACTIVITY LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. IF CELLS, ARE ABLE TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER A PERIOD OF A QLCS (LINEAR) TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
DEVELOP AS THE MEAN WIND IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT AND INCREASING 0-3 CAPE AROUND 30 KNOTS AND AN
INCREASING 0-1 AND 0-3 SRH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING, WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE AWARE OF BLOWING DUST, PERHAPS EVEN A HABOOB
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKER OR IF
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT RATHER LOW BUT DO
THINK SOME DUST WILL BE LOFTED AND POTENTIALLY CAPPED ALONG THE
FRONT AS THE 2-2.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. WITH
THIS FRONT, A VERY STRONG 3 HOUR AND 1 HOUR PRESSURE RISE OF
11MB AND 5 MB RESPECTIVELY ARE SEEN TO OCCUR WHICH WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 55-60 MPH THAT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. IF SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEN
SOME ROGUE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. I WAS CONTEMPLATING A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING AS IT IS TOUGHER TO GET WINDS TO REACH THEIR
FULL POTENTIAL AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN, COVERAGE AND
THE POTENTIAL FINE LINE OF NON THUNDERSTORM VS THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW BUT A SHORT FUSED WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE FULLEST POTENTIAL CAN BE REALIZED.
THURSDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S
FORECAST. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WHICH MAY BRING SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO YUMA
AND SW NEBRASKA BUT FUELS MAY BE MITIGATED SOME THE RAINFALL FROM
TONIGHT.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS A SUBTLE 500MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS MAINLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED INSTANCES WHERE RAIN CAN
REACH THE SURFACE. THE INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/MICROBURSTS WITH THE
VIRGA/SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AS CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND
50-60 KNOTS. A ROGUE AND BRIEF WIND GUST OF 60-65 MPH CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY, CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE TRANQUIL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM TODAY RESIDES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY WINDS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THINK THEY WON'T BE AS NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE LOW BEING FURTHER AWARE FROM THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT TUE MAY 13 2025
TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
EJECT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BREEZY TO STRONG WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AS WELL IN WAKE OF THE LOW. THE
STRONGEST WINDS AT THIS TIME APPEAR TO BE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
WHERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
AGAIN FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS SO MAY AGAIN
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT MAY BE
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH RAINFALL FALLS TO NIGHT BEFORE.
A REPRIEVE IN THE WIND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR FRIDAY AS WE BECOME
SEMI ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS. STILL ON THE "COOLER" SIDE OF THE LOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE 70S ACROSS THE
AREA AND OVERALL DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST WITH NO CLEAR CUT
FORCING FOR ANYTHING SEEN AT THIS TIME.
SATURDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK A MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN MAY DEVELOP. DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS
WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM AND POTENTIALLY SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE AS WELL. HOWEVER, A MULTITUDE OF
VARIABLE MAY ENHANCE OR DECREASE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL SO WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SET UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HOWEVER DO LOOK TO BE MORE SEASONABLE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S ACROSS THE AREA.
A DEVELOPING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHING IS ALSO FORECAST
TO EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY BRING IN SOME COLDER
AIR INTO THE AREA. A HANDFUL OF ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRINGS IN
SOME AIR AROUND 10 TO 13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHICH IF IT DOES
PAN MAY BRING SOME NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO NW PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL OR LIVESTOCK INTERESTS MAY
WANT TO KEEP AN EYE ON UPCOMING FORECASTS AND SEE IF THIS TREND
HOLDS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT TUE MAY 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THE PERIOD FOR EACH
TERMINAL. BREEZY SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE
GUSTING 25-30 KNOTS FOR EACH TERMINAL. A COUPLE OF STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD REMAIN
AWAY FROM THE KGLD TERMINAL BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF FOR
ADDITIONAL TURBULENCE CONCERNS. FAIRLY DECENT CONSENSUS IN
ANOTHER LLJ DEVELOPING TONIGHT SO HAVE INCLUDED LLWS FOR EACH
TERMINAL AS THE LLJ AS OF LATE HAS BEEN STRONGER THAN WHAT
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. INCREASING SIGNAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND PERHAPS
SOME FOG FOR KMCK WEDNESDAY MORNING. SHOULD WINDS BECOME A
LITTLE LIGHTER THAN VISIBILITIES MAY BE LOWERED MORE THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST BUT EITHER WAY FAIRLY GOOD CONSENSUS WITH
IFR CEILINGS DUE TO LOW STRATUS WITH THE STRATUS POTENTIALLY
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1052 AM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WITH NW WINDS
GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS AT KGLD AND SE WINDS AT KMCK REMAINING
AROUND 10 KNOTS. BREEZY WINDS AT KGLD ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME LESSENING OF THE WINDS AT KMCK AS THE
LOW NEARS. THERE IS A 5-10% CHANCE OF A SEVERE STORM DEVELOPING
NEAR KMCK THIS AFTERNOON FROM AROUND 3P-6P CT BUT WITH THE
CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THIS WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW. A
BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING THE KMCK TERMINAL DOES EXIST
THIS EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL OF HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS. ANY
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KGLD BUT AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING STRONG TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME
BLOWING DUST. IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKER THEN THE DUST
MAY BE MORE SIGNIFICANT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH
THE NIGH AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page