920
FXUS63 KGLD 150510
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 55 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING DUST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT MT OR 1 AM CT BEFORE
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN SETS UP WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR
STORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE
POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
RESIDUAL WINDS AND PATCHY BLOWING DUST WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
THURSDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
70S WITH BRISK WESTERLY WINDS. A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATING AROUND
THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL COME OUT OF
COLORADO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH
THE DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY WINDS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. NONETHELESS, MIGHT SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS DURING THAT TIME WITH A TRACE OR HUNDREDTH OF MOISTURE.
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS NEAR SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, BUT
DCAPE IS FORECAST TO BE ONLY AROUND 1000 J/KG AND NOT SEEING ANY
GUSTY WINDS IN THE CAMS, SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT HAZARD
OCCURRING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
THE SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED AROUND THE HIGHWAY 25/83 VICINITY
CURRENTLY WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 35 MPH ON THE
BACK SIDE. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES ON THE LEE SIDE
OF THE LOW WITH 60 DEW POINTS CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ACROSS
RED WILLOW, NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE
FOCUS FOR A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR A STORM OR TWO TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON (5- 10% CHANCE). SHOULD A STORM GO IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT, AS DEPICTED BY THE NAM/NAMNEST WHICH IS HANDLING
THE DEW POINTS THE BEST OF NOW, INTENSE SUPERCELLS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WOULD ALSO SUPPORT POTENTIAL SPLITTING
OF CELLS. HOWEVER, THE NORTHEASTERN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW WILL
BE KEY IN IF THIS WILL HAPPEN AS ANY INITIATION MAY BE CONFINED
UP CLOSER TO THE I-80 CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT POSITIONING OF THE
LOW IS KEEPING MY CONFIDENCE LOWER VERSUS IF IT WAS FURTHER
WEST.
NOW ONTO ROUND 2 OF STORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY
CONVERGENCE MAY YIELD SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF AN
INCOMING COLD FRONT. THESE MAY STRUGGLE A BIT DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, BUT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD REMAIN SUPPORT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A LANDSPOUT AS WELL.
BETTER COVERAGE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COMES WITH THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHEN JET IN THE 850MB AND 700MB LEVELS. WITH THIS
ACTIVITY LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH WOULD
BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. IF CELLS, ARE ABLE TO MERGE/INTERACT WITH
EACH OTHER A PERIOD OF A QLCS (LINEAR) TORNADO THREAT MAY BE
DEVELOP AS THE MEAN WIND IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT AND INCREASING 0-3 CAPE AROUND 30 KNOTS AND AN
INCREASING 0-1 AND 0-3 SRH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THIS EVENING, WE WILL
ALSO NEED TO BE AWARE OF BLOWING DUST, PERHAPS EVEN A HABOOB
POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IF THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH QUICKER OR IF
ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
AT THIS TIME THINK THE POTENTIAL FOR THAT RATHER LOW BUT DO
THINK SOME DUST WILL BE LOFTED AND POTENTIALLY CAPPED ALONG THE
FRONT AS THE 2-2.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES BECOME MORE STABLE. WITH
THIS FRONT, A VERY STRONG 3 HOUR AND 1 HOUR PRESSURE RISE OF
11MB AND 5 MB RESPECTIVELY ARE SEEN TO OCCUR WHICH WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL BRING SOME STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AROUND 55-60 MPH THAT ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. IF SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THEN
SOME ROGUE EVEN HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. I WAS CONTEMPLATING A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT
DUE TO THE TIMING AS IT IS TOUGHER TO GET WINDS TO REACH THEIR
FULL POTENTIAL AS THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION SETS IN, COVERAGE AND
THE POTENTIAL FINE LINE OF NON THUNDERSTORM VS THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS AM OPTING TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW BUT A SHORT FUSED WARNING
MAY BE NEEDED IF THE FULLEST POTENTIAL CAN BE REALIZED.
THURSDAY, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BREEZY IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S
FORECAST. LOWER DEW POINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
WHICH MAY BRING SOME NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO YUMA
AND SW NEBRASKA BUT FUELS MAY BE MITIGATED SOME THE RAINFALL FROM
TONIGHT.
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS A SUBTLE 500MB WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS.
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS MAINLY VIRGA IS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH CAN'T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED INSTANCES WHERE RAIN CAN
REACH THE SURFACE. THE INTERESTING PART OF THE DAY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURSTS/MICROBURSTS WITH THE
VIRGA/SPRINKLES/SHOWERS AS CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE AROUND
50-60 KNOTS. A ROGUE AND BRIEF WIND GUST OF 60-65 MPH CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT WITH THE ACTIVITY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY, CONTINUES TO LOOK MORE TRANQUIL AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM TODAY RESIDES IN THE UPPER MIDWEST. BREEZY WINDS WILL STILL BE
ACROSS THE AREA BUT THINK THEY WON'T BE AS NOTICEABLE DUE TO
THE LOW BEING FURTHER AWARE FROM THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THE
FORECAST LOOKS DRY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BE PRESENT ONCE AGAIN.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD ON SATURDAY AND INTO THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES APPEAR TO DEVELOP.
DEEP TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN CONUS ALONG
WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SATURDAY, THE
BETTER MOISTURE APPEARS TO FAVOR SOUTHERN KANSAS AND DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID 40S TO
MID 40S MAY MAKE IT UP TOWARDS AROUND THE I-70 CORRIDOR WHICH
MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STORM THREAT AS WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY BE THE DAYS THAT NEED TO BE WATCHED AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO. DEPENDING ON HOW THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LOW
WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE AND IF DRY SLOTTING MAY BE OF A
CONCERN. THE ECMWF DOES SHOW INCREASING 700MB WINDS WHICH WOULD HELP
SUPPORT ANY UPDRAFT ATTEMPTS EACH DAY. THERE IS SOME 500MB
DIVERGENCE SEEN AS WELL JUST AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE ON SUNDAY WHICH
WOULD BETTER HELP ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. WITH THE SEMI
CONCERNS FOR DRY SLOTTING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE
TO SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR EACH DAY. WINDS DO LOOK TO BE BREEZY AS
WELL WITH SE WINDS ADVECTING IN MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW SUNDAY.
MAY ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR FOG AND STRATUS POTENTIAL THE
CLOSER WE GET.
BEHIND THE LOW ON MONDAY SOME BELOW NORMAL AIR MAY TRY TO MOVE IN
FOR TUESDAY MORNING WHERE LOW TEMPERATURES MAY TRY TO FALL INTO THE
30S ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH BRINGS SOME CONCERN
FOR A FROST, ESPECIALLY IF WE DO GET RAINFALL AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER CAN BECOME MORE SATURATED. ENSEMBLES HOWEVER DON'T SHOW
NEARLY AS POTENT OF AIR AS WHAT WAS SEEN 24 HOURS SO WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS TRENDS.
TUESDAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY EJECT ACROSS KANSAS FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS BUT THERE IS A TON OF VARYING SOLUTIONS WITH THE TRACK OF
THAT AND IF THAT SYSTEM WILL EVEN DEVELOP IN THE FIRST PLACE. AFTER
THAT SOME MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO RETURN WITH A QUIET END TO THE
WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1103 PM MDT WED MAY 14 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTS OF
20-30KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO IS
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW PROBABILITIES
OF IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
KSZ003-004-013>016-027>029-041-042.
CO...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090>092.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ091-092.
NE...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
NEZ079>081.
BLOWING DUST WARNING UNTIL 1 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NEZ081.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...024
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