334
FXUS63 KGLD 151929
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
129 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- OVERALL DRIER THURSDAY BUT A 10-15% CHANCE FOR SEVERE
DOWNBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH VIRGA/SPRINKLES/SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 25.
- BREEZY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
- A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN THEN SETS UP THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE
START OF THE WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
THE CURRENT FAVORED DAY BEING SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ATTRIBUTING TO A BREEZY WIND FIELD CONTINUING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY BLOWING DUST CONCERNS TODAY BUT SOME VERY LOCALIZED
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES NEAR FIELDS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WE DID
RECEIVE AN MPING REPORT OF SOME DUST NEAR A FIELD IN NORTHERN
SHERMAN COUNTY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HAVE NOT HAD ANY DETAILS OF
WHAT THE VISIBILITY WAS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN SOME
VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WITH A 500MB
SHORTWAVE INCREASES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOME. AM CONTINUING
TO THINK THAT SOME VIRGA, SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING, HOWEVER WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN WAKE
OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT DO THINK ANY FORM PRECIPITATION WILL BE
HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SURFACE. I DO STILL HAVE SOME CONCERNS
OF SEVERE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN THE DISSIPATING STAGES OF ANY
UPDRAFT AS CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS REMAIN AROUND 60 KNOTS AND
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN PLACE. HREF MAX WIND GUSTS ALSO DO
SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HINTING AT SOME SPLOTCHY
INSTANCES OF 50-55 MPH WINDS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 25 INTO THE EVENING HOURS; GIVEN HOW STRONG THE CORFIDI
DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE AND THE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE INVERTED V
SOUNDINGS DO THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC WIND
GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH.
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BEGINS TO
MOVE TO THE EAST AND AS IT DOES SO WIND ACROSS THE NORTHER
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THIS,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE SOME 45 TO EVEN 50 MPH WINDS
ACROSS SW NEBRASKA. MAY NEED HAVE AN INCREASE IN FIRE SPREAD
POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF THOSE WINDS DO PAN OUT AS RH VALUES ARE
THEN FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S AS THE
MAJORITY OF OUT SW NEBRASKA COUNTIES MISSED OUT ON ANY RAINFALL.
SATURDAY, TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS DO LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN
WINDS AS WELL GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY DOES LOOK TO BE DRY BUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FAIRLY MEAGER IN
THE 40S BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BUT WIND SHEAR IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE AROUND 40 KNOTS TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. LARGE HAIL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. AN EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY BE FURTHER
SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER ALONG THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE FORCING FURTHER
SOUTH IS NOT NEARLY AS GOOD BUT DOES NEED WATCHING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE DAY TO WATCH.
A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS FORECAST
TO EJECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT THIS WILL CREATE A DRY LINE TO THE EAST AND
A WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED
SETS UP FOR A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1500-2500 J/KG AND NEAR 50 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THAT MAY HINDER
DEVELOPMENT SOME BUT 12Z NAM RUNS INDICATE LOADED GUN SOUNDINGS
IN PLACE. AS OF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THIS SET UP AND THE OTHER MORE CONDITIONAL CAP ISSUE DAYS IS
THAT THE AREA HAS ADDITIONAL AND CLOSER TO THE AREA FORCING
THAT SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THIS. EVERYTHING MENTIONED ABOVE ALL
ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 15% OUTLOOK THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT AT THIS TIME ALL HAZARDS MAY BE
IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE CWA.
MONDAY, THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE SURFACE
LOW DOES SOME RETROGRADING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH MAY AGAIN BRINGS
SOME CONCERN FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
THE CWA IS A LITTLE IFFY AT THIS TIME BASED ON THE QUALITY OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DO REMAIN BREEZY AS WELL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AGAIN GUSTING AROUND 30-40 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY AS THIS LOW
FINALLY DEPARTS THE AREA, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM THE GFS
IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A 700MB JET OF 45-55 KNOT WIND GUSTS IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN WINDS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED A BIT
IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AM
SEEING AN INCREASED SIGNAL FOR RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS. IF THIS CONTINUES THEN A REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE AND
MAYBE EVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A WARM UP MAY ENSUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR EACH
TERMINAL ALONG WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS WINDS GUSTS 30-35 KNOTS CONTINUE. THERE IS A
10-15% CHANCE FOR SOME VIRGA,SPRINKLES, SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING CAPABLE OF DOWNBURST, PERHAPS SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS. CHANCES OF THAT IMPACTING A TERMINAL ARE EVEN
LESS THAN THE FORMATION SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SOME SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND THEN
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH WINDS RETURNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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