772
FXUS63 KGLD 161710
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1110 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS SOUTH
DAKOTA ATTRIBUTING TO A BREEZY WIND FIELD CONTINUING FOR THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY BLOWING DUST CONCERNS TODAY BUT SOME VERY
LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES NEAR FIELDS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AS WE DID RECEIVE AN MPING REPORT OF SOME DUST NEAR A FIELD IN
NORTHERN SHERMAN COUNTY DURING THE MORNING HOURS, HAVE NOT HAD
ANY DETAILS OF WHAT THE VISIBILITY WAS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN SOME VORTICITY MAXIMA ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT WITH A
500MB SHORTWAVE INCREASES THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE SOME. AM
CONTINUING TO THINK THAT SOME VIRGA, SPRINKLES OR SPOTTY SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FORCING, HOWEVER WITH DRY LOW LEVELS IN
WAKE OF YESTERDAY'S FRONT DO THINK ANY FORM PRECIPITATION WILL
BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH THE SURFACE. I DO STILL HAVE SOME
CONCERNS OF SEVERE DOWNBURST POTENTIAL IN THE DISSIPATING STAGES
OF ANY UPDRAFT AS CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS REMAIN AROUND 60
KNOTS AND INVERTED V SOUNDINGS IN PLACE. HREF MAX WIND GUSTS
ALSO DO SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL AS WELL AS HINTING AT SOME
SPLOTCHY INSTANCES OF 50-55 MPH WINDS PRIMARILY ALONG AND WEST
OF HIGHWAY 25 INTO THE EVENING HOURS; GIVEN HOW STRONG THE
CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR VECTORS ARE AND THE WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS DO THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF 55-65 MPH.
FRIDAY, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AND AS IT DOES SO WIND ACROSS THE
NORTHER PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
THIS, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE HAVE SOME 45 TO EVEN 50 MPH
WINDS ACROSS SW NEBRASKA. MAY NEED HAVE AN INCREASE IN FIRE
SPREAD POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY IF THOSE WINDS DO PAN OUT AS RH
VALUES ARE THEN FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
AS THE MAJORITY OF OUT SW NEBRASKA COUNTIES MISSED OUT ON ANY
RAINFALL.
SATURDAY, TROUGHING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WINDS DO LOOK TO BECOME BREEZY WITH THE SOUTHEASTERN
WINDS AS WELL GUSTING TO 35-40 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST. THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY DOES LOOK TO BE DRY BUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DOES LOOK TO MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DEW POINTS ARE FAIRLY MEAGER IN
THE 40S BASED ON CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE BUT WIND SHEAR IS MORE
THAN ADEQUATE AROUND 40 KNOTS TO SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL
ORGANIZATION OF STORMS. LARGE HAIL AT THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE THE
PRIMARY HAZARD. AN EVEN MORE CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY BE FURTHER
SOUTH AS MOISTURE WILL BE A LITTLE BIT BETTER ALONG THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE FORCING FURTHER SOUTH IS
NOT NEARLY AS GOOD BUT DOES NEED WATCHING.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 126 PM MDT THU MAY 15 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, SUNDAY IS CURRENTLY THE DAY TO WATCH.
A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARDS THE AREA AS A SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AND IS FORECAST
TO EJECT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES. FOG
AND STRATUS MAY BE PRESENT AS WELL DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY WITH THE CONTINUED STREAM OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. AS THE
LOW MOVES TO THE NORTH ADDITIONAL MID LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH EJECTS INTO THE AREA. AS THE SURFACE
LOW BEGINS TO EJECT THIS WILL CREATE A DRY LINE TO THE EAST AND
A WARM FRONT MOVING TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THESE FEATURES COMBINED
SETS UP FOR A CLASSIC SEVERE WEATHER EVENT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1500-2500 J/KG AND NEAR 50 KNOTS
OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DO SHOW A CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO THAT MAY HINDER
DEVELOPMENT SOME BUT 12Z NAM RUNS INDICATE LOADED GUN SOUNDINGS
IN PLACE. AS OF CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THIS SET UP AND THE OTHER MORE CONDITIONAL CAP ISSUE DAYS IS
THAT THE AREA HAS ADDITIONAL AND CLOSER TO THE AREA FORCING THAT
SHOULD HELP OVERCOME THIS. EVERYTHING MENTIONED ABOVE ALL
ALIGNS WITH THE CURRENT DAY 4 15% OUTLOOK THAT THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS BUT AT THIS TIME ALL HAZARDS MAY BE
IN PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE CWA.
MONDAY, THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
SURFACE LOW DOES SOME RETROGRADING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHICH MAY
AGAIN BRINGS SOME CONCERN FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA IS A LITTLE IFFY AT THIS TIME BASED
ON THE QUALITY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS DO REMAIN
BREEZY AS WELL THROUGHOUT THE DAY AGAIN GUSTING AROUND 30-40 MPH
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE TUESDAY AS
THIS LOW FINALLY DEPARTS THE AREA, ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM THE GFS IS CURRENTLY INDICATING A 700MB JET OF 45-55 KNOT
WIND GUSTS IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN WINDS MAY NEED TO BE
INCREASED A BIT IN FUTURE FORECASTS.
WEDNESDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, AM
SEEING AN INCREASED SIGNAL FOR RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS CONTINUES THEN A REPRIEVE FROM ACTIVE AND
MAYBE EVEN BREEZY CONDITIONS AND A WARM UP MAY ENSUE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.. WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~7,000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS AT 20-30 KNOTS (GUSTING UP TO ~35 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON) WILL DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON (~00Z). WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND, OR
SHORTLY AFTER, SUNSET THIS EVENING.. BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY
~03Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE ESE-SE AND INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (~18Z SAT).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.. WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~5,000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON. WNW TO NW WINDS AT 25-35 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO
15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~00Z). WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNSET THIS EVENING..
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY ~03Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO
THE ESE-SE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (~18Z SAT).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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