162
FXUS63 KGLD 162124
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
324 PM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE IN THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA. CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW (CENTERED OVER MINNESOTA AT 20Z THIS
AFTERNOON) WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS (SAT-SAT NIGHT).
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
TODAY-TONIGHT: ONGOING BREEZY TO STRONG WNW-NW WINDS (MCCOOK
MEASURED A 51 MPH GUST AT 1740 UTC).. ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT
MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN
FRINGE OF THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW.. WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH
AT/AROUND SUNSET THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PROGRESSES EAST TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES.. THE MSLP-850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT SLACKENS..
INSOLATION WANES AND VERTICAL MIXING ABRUPTLY DECREASES. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.. AS MODEST SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DAKOTAS EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE TRI-
STATE AREA.
SAT-SAT NIGHT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEST ESE-SE LOW-
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME ESTABLISHED SAT AFT-
EVE.. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. VIRTUALLY ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE REGION..
SUGGESTING LITTLE, IF ANY, POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MEAGER HIGH-BASED
UPDRAFTS WILL BE CONFINED TO TOPOGRAPHICALLY/GEOGRAPHICALLY
FAVORED AREAS (HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE) WHERE
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE WEAKER (THOUGH, SO WILL
INSTABILITY). WHILE ~15 KNOT SSW STEERING FLOW MAY USHER
UPDRAFTS TOWARD PORTIONS OF KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES IN CO..
INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT/CAPPED ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST WILL TEND TO WEAKEN/SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT (WITH EASTERN
EXTENT).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
SUN-SUN NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SSE ASHORE THE
PACIFIC COAST SAT-SAT NIGHT WILL BROADEN AND STALL IN VICINITY
OF THE 4-CORNERS ON SUN. CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH (OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES) WILL FOSTER
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH (IN THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES) AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL ASSIST
THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE.. TO THE I-70
CORRIDOR (POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 36).. AND THAT STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY DEVELOP BEHIND THE DRYLINE SUN AFTERNOON.
WHILE THERMODYNAMIC/ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER (ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT OVER
CENTRAL-EASTERN KS, WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT).. THESE AREAS WILL ALSO BE FURTHER REMOVED FROM UPPER
FORCING (AND IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE)..
AND SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
(AND WHERE) LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
CONVECTION INHIBITION. AT THIS TIME, IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR
NOT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IN THE NWS GOODLAND CWA. OVERALL,
CONVECTION APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST CO AND
SOUTHWEST NE (IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING).. WHERE
THERMODYNAMIC/ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LESS FAVORABLE FOR..
ALBEIT STILL SUPPORTIVE-OF.. SEVERE WEATHER.
MON-TUE: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE BROAD UPPER
TROUGH / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS IN THIS PERIOD. EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION AND NEAR-AVERAGE TO BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
WED: SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE BROAD UPPER LOW DEPARTING
THE REGION WILL FOSTER DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.
THU-FRI: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A MODEST
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE NEXT WEEK.. AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT FRI MAY 16 2025
GLD: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.. WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~7,000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS AT 20-30 KNOTS (GUSTING UP TO ~35 KNOTS
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON) WILL DECREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON (~00Z). WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND, OR
SHORTLY AFTER, SUNSET THIS EVENING.. BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY
~03Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY
OF SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO THE ESE-SE AND INCREASING TO
10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD (~18Z SAT).
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.. WITH
CLOUD COVER CONFINED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ~5,000 FT AGL
THIS AFTERNOON. WNW TO NW WINDS AT 25-35 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO
15-25 KNOTS AN HOUR OR TWO PRIOR TO SUNSET (~00Z). WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DIMINISH AROUND, OR SHORTLY AFTER, SUNSET THIS EVENING..
BECOMING LIGHT/VARIABLE BY ~03Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SATURDAY MORNING, SHIFTING TO
THE ESE-SE AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD (~18Z SAT).
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT
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