276
FXUS63 KGLD 171934
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
134 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE THIS AFT-EVE (~5-10 PM MDT). SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (IF ANY)
THIS AFT/EVE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF THE NWS GOODLAND
CWA.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN 4-8 PM MDT / 5-9 PM CDT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1235 AM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT, A FEW CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA AS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE FRONT
RANGE. AT THE SURFACE, TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER INTO THE
UPPER 30S AND 40S WITH CALM WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
FOR SATURDAY, RELATIVELY MILD CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA
AS THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT. WITH IT, MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES, HIGHS IN THE 70S, AND INITIALLY LIGHT WINDS AROUND 10-
15 MPH ARE FORECAST. AS THE DAY GOES ON, THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE MORE EAST INTO THE MOUNTAIN WEST AND HELP DEVELOP
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AND STRENGTHEN WINDS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND NEIGHBORING
COUNTIES. SPEEDS COULD REACH 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON.
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE FORECAST STILL
CALLS FOR SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TRY AND MAKE THEIR WAY INTO
PARTS OF THE AREA. A POTENTIAL BATCH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO, ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE LOW. SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO BE UNLIKELY WITH THIS BATCH GIVEN
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING LOW INSTABILITY (CAPE < 1000J/KG AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.0 C/KM) AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS
THROUGH THE CLOUD LAYER (MID LEVEL WINDS AND CORFIDI DOWNSHEAR
VECTORS AROUND 30-40 KTS). THIS BATCH OF STORMS IS FORECAST TO
STRUGGLE TO REACH THE AREA AS THE AIR IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT DRIER
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS IN EASTERN COLORADO. THE SECOND POTENTIAL
BATCH FAVORS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, CLOSER TO
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS BATCH HAS THE BETTER CHANCE TO BE SEVERE, IF IT
CAN FORM. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THIS AREA AND LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. IF
STORMS DO FORM, SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY
BE ABLE TO MOVE IN AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE AREA IN THE LOW
LEVELS. WITH THIS, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME QUICK
STORMS TO FIRE AND PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR IN SIZE (MUCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG, MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8-9 C/KM). THE
BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND DURING THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. AS THE EVENING CONTINUES, MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THIS,
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT FOG AND EVEN SOME DENSE FOG COULD
DEVELOP. THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE SATURATED
AIR WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH IF THE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG AND MIX
OUT THE LOWER LEVEL SATURATION, BUT MOST OF NORTHWEST KANSAS COULD
SEE FOG LATE IN THE NIGHT SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY. IF THE FOG
AND/OR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP, LOCALES UNDERNEATH WOULD LIKELY
STAY IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S FOR LOWS. THE REST OF THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO COOL INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY A SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN
PLACE AROUND THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA/NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE LINES AS
BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH AS 30 KNOT 850MB JET REMAIN IN
PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A 45-50 KNOT 700MB JET REMAINS IN
PLACE, ASSUMING IF SOME MIXING CAN OCCUR THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF A ROGUE 60 MPH GUST OCCURS IF THESE TRENDS HOLD. AT THIS TIME
TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY BUT IF THE LOW SETS UP A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST THEN SOME VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW MOVES IT A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH IS FORECAST TO
DROP WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH
ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING A
PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THEY SHIFT TO THE WEST. IF THIS SHIFT
TO THE WEST IS SLOWER TO OCCUR THEN TEMPERATURES MAY DROP EVEN
FURTHER WHICH MAY BRING SOME FROST OR MAYBE FREEZE CONCERNS TO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH WOULD BE IMPACTFUL GIVEN WE ARE WELL
PAST OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL LAST FREEZE DATE. LUCKILY THIS SURFACE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE SHORT LIVED AS A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF
WESTERN CONUS RIDGING DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THIS OUT OF THE AREA.
SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY WHICH MAY TRY TO SPARK SOME STORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE INTER MOUNTAIN
WEST WHICH IF CURRENT PLACEMENT HOLDS PUTS THE REGION ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. TYPICALLY IN THESE PATTERNS WEAK WAVES
THAT ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA; WHAT MAKES THIS INTERESTING IS THAT THERE ARE
ALREADY SOME SIGNALS ARE SOME EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH MAKES ME THINK
THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN MAY EMERGE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND.
WITH THIS STILL BEING 5-7 DAYS OUT A LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE BUT IT
DOES APPEAR THAT ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY
RETURN AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
START OUT FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGH SIN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS
THE AREA BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S MY WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THE MID 80S AGAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AS THAT RIDGE BEGINS
TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS MENTIONED ABOVE,
SOME CONCERN FOR FROST AND MAYBE FREEZE TO START THE PERIOD
BEFORE A RECOVER TO MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND
MID 50S BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MVFR-
IFR CEILINGS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP AROUND, OR SHORTLY BEFORE,
SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING AT BOTH TERMINALS. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON (~17-19Z SUN).
ESE TO SE WINDS AT 10-17 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.. INCREASING TO 15-25 KNOTS LATE SUNDAY MORNING.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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