398
FXUS63 KGLD 180459
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1059 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LOW CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO LATE THIS AFT-EVE (~5-10 PM MDT). SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT ANTICIPATED. OTHERWISE, THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (IF ANY)
THIS AFT/EVE WILL BE CONFINED WELL SOUTH OF THE NWS GOODLAND
CWA.
- STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A NORTHWARD
ADVANCING DRYLINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-70 WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE.
- SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING
WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN 4-8 PM MDT / 5-9 PM CDT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
TODAY-TONIGHT: EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL-NORTHERN PLAINS.
MODEST ESE-SE LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.. AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH GRADUALLY
SHIFTS EASTWARD. DESTABILIZATION ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WILL LARGELY BE CONFINED TO SOUTHWEST KS THIS AFTERNOON
AND, WHERE DESTABILIZATION DOES OCCUR, A STRONG CAP (SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) WILL BE PRESENT. THIS, IN
ADDITION TO MEAGER FORCING, SUGGESTS LITTLE.. IF ANY..
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF
HIGH-RES CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT
MEAGER HIGH-BASED UPDRAFTS WILL DEVELOP IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY/
GEOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS IN EASTERN COLORADO (HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE PALMER DIVIDE) WHERE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
WILL BE WEAKER (THOUGH, SO WILL INSTABILITY). WHILE ~15 KNOT SSW
STEERING FLOW MAY USHER UPDRAFTS TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS OF KIT
CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES.. INCREASINGLY SUBSIDENT/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO THE EAST WILL TEND TO WEAKEN OR
SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT (WITH EASTERN EXTENT). WITH THE ABOVE IN
MIND, CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.. AND ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER.. WILL BE RELEGATED WELL S AND SE OF THE GOODLAND
COUNTY WARNING AREA (E.G. OKLAHOMA).
SUN-SUN NIGHT: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST
(TODAY) WILL DIG SSE TOWARD THE 4-CORNERS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
(TONIGHT), THEN SLOW IN FORWARD PROGRESS AND EVOLVE INTO A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES (SUN-SUN NIGHT).
CYCLONIC SHEAR VORTICITY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGH
WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LEE CYCLONE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS DURING THE DAY. SOUTHERLY
FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH (IN THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES) AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL
ASSIST THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A PRONOUNCED DRYLINE TO THE
HWY 36 CORRIDOR (NEAR THE KS-NE BORDER) SUN AFTERNOON. STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND PROFOUNDLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND
THE DRYLINE (ALONG-SOUTH OF I-70), WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOLID 30-40 KNOT FLOW WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT A VERY
DEEP MIXED LAYER.. SUGGESTING SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH AND
GUSTS UP TO 50-55 MPH. THERMODYNAMIC/ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER (ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN EXTENT OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN KS, WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT). GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE SUPPRESSED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
NWS GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA, EXCEPT IN NORTHWEST PORTIONS
(IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER FORCING).. WHERE CONVECTION MAY
INITIATE ALONG A PRONOUNCED NW-SE ORIENTED DRYLINE IN VICINITY
OF THE CO-KS-NE BORDER ~22-23Z. GIVEN THAT RIGHT-MOVER MOTION
WILL BE FROM THE SW (~220 DEGREES) AT ~30 KNOTS, THE 'WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY' FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY BE SHORT IN DURATION (2-4
HOURS).. MAINLY BETWEEN ~22-02Z.
MON-MON NIGHT: THE BROAD UPPER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THIS PERIOD.
EXPECT ABOVE AVERAGE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND NEAR-AVERAGE
TO BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. WHILE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL MAY EXIST IN FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
(ALONG/NEAR HWY 283) DURING THE AFTERNOON.. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KS.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY A SURFACE LOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AROUND THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA/NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE
LINES AS BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH AS
30 KNOT 850MB JET REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A
45-50 KNOT 700MB JET REMAINS IN PLACE, ASSUMING IF SOME MIXING
CAN OCCUR THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A ROGUE 60 MPH GUST
OCCURS IF THESE TRENDS HOLD. AT THIS TIME TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY BUT IF THE LOW SETS UP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THEN
SOME VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW MOVES IT A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT TO THE WEST. IF THIS SHIFT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER TO OCCUR
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER WHICH MAY BRING SOME
FROST OR MAYBE FREEZE CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
WOULD BE IMPACTFUL GIVEN WE ARE WELL PAST OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL
LAST FREEZE DATE. LUCKILY THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THIS OUT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY
TRY TO SPARK SOME STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH IF CURRENT PLACEMENT HOLDS PUTS THE REGION
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. TYPICALLY IN THESE
PATTERNS WEAK WAVES THAT ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; WHAT MAKES THIS
INTERESTING IS THAT THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SIGNALS ARE SOME
EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
MAY EMERGE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS STILL BEING 5-7
DAYS OUT A LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY RETURN AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO START OUT FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGH SIN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
MY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S AGAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AS
THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME CONCERN FOR FROST AND MAYBE FREEZE TO
START THE PERIOD BEFORE A RECOVER TO MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 50S BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1054 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... ROUGH FLYING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT TIMES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 6
HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AS THE JET HAS BEEN OBSERVED TO
BE A FEW HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND WITH SPEEDS TO 40 KTS.
LOWER CEILINGS AROUND 1000-2000FT ARE POSSIBLE FROM 09-18Z AS
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO STREAM IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT
WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE STORMS WILL FORM AND HOW
WIDESPREAD THEY WILL BE. BUT BETWEEN MAINLY 21-04Z, SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH VERY LARGE HAIL, WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 50-60 KTS, AND MAYBE A TORNADO. USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND BE PREPARED FOR CHANGING CONDITIONS. AFTER 06Z, THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE FOR A FINAL WAVE OF STORMS TO PASS THROUGH KMCK, BUT
OTHERWISE CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page