383
FXUS63 KGLD 181814
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1214 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
MAINLY BETWEEN 3-8 PM MDT. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA HAS
A CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS, LOCALES ALONG AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 ARE FAVORED. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.
- STRONG SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND A NORTHWARD ADVANCING
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE
SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 55 MPH FOR SEVERAL
HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY LARGELY BE
CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL LIFT NNE-NE FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO NORTHEAST
CO WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LEE CYCLONE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH (IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES) AND DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING WILL ASSIST THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A PRONOUNCED
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. BY 00Z, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NW-
SE ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG/NEAR A LINE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND SCOTT CITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT INTO
CENTRAL KS.. WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A PRONOUNCED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ~9 C/KM) WILL
FOSTER STRONG INSTABILITY (3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE). CURRENT AND
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATE TWO POTENTIAL AREAS
OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON: [1]
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 OVER PORTIONS OF YUMA-CHEYENNE-SHERMAN
COUNTIES ~21-22Z AND [2] SOUTH OF I-70 AND ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 (GOVE COUNTY) ~22-23Z. GIVEN THAT RIGHT-MOVER MOTION WILL BE
FROM THE SSW-SW (200-220 DEGREES) AT ~30 KNOTS, THE 'WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY' FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY
WARNING AREA WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION (~4 HOURS), MAINLY
BETWEEN ~21-02Z. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
PRIMARY MODE. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE ON THE TABLE. STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS AND PROFOUNDLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEHIND THE DRYLINE (ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70), WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45 KNOT FLOW THROUGHOUT A VERY DEEP MIXED
LAYER.. AND SUSTAINED WINDS AT 30-40 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 55 MPH
FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNSET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 133 PM MDT SAT MAY 17 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY A SURFACE LOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AROUND THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA/NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE
LINES AS BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH AS
30 KNOT 850MB JET REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A
45-50 KNOT 700MB JET REMAINS IN PLACE, ASSUMING IF SOME MIXING
CAN OCCUR THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A ROGUE 60 MPH GUST
OCCURS IF THESE TRENDS HOLD. AT THIS TIME TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY BUT IF THE LOW SETS UP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THEN
SOME VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW MOVES IT A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT TO THE WEST. IF THIS SHIFT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER TO OCCUR
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER WHICH MAY BRING SOME
FROST OR MAYBE FREEZE CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
WOULD BE IMPACTFUL GIVEN WE ARE WELL PAST OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL
LAST FREEZE DATE. LUCKILY THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THIS OUT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY
TRY TO SPARK SOME STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH IF CURRENT PLACEMENT HOLDS PUTS THE REGION
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. TYPICALLY IN THESE
PATTERNS WEAK WAVES THAT ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; WHAT MAKES THIS
INTERESTING IS THAT THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SIGNALS ARE SOME
EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
MAY EMERGE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS STILL BEING 5-7
DAYS OUT A LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY RETURN AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO START OUT FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGH SIN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
MY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S AGAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AS
THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME CONCERN FOR FROST AND MAYBE FREEZE TO
START THE PERIOD BEFORE A RECOVER TO MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 50S BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
GLD: A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE IN VICINITY OF THE
GOODLAND TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON (~22-23Z). OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
25-35 KNOT SE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND INCREASE TO 30-40
KNOTS (W/GUSTS 45 KNOTS) BEHIND A DRYLINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
(~22-01Z). WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.. AS A LEE CYCLONE PROGRESSES EASTWARD
OVER NORTHWEST KS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND INCREASE TO
10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.. FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-30 KNOTS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE MCCOOK TERMINAL
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING (~23-03Z). MVFR-IFR
STRATUS IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AND PERSIST
OVERNIGHT. 25-35 KNOT SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AROUND OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AS A LEE CYCLONE PROGRESSES EASTWARD OVER
NORTHWEST KS AND SOUTHWEST NE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WNW AND
INCREASE TO 15-25 KNOTS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...VINCENT
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