948
FXUS63 KGLD 190541
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1141 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, THYE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY
LARGELY BE CONFINED TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
STORMS HAVE EXITED THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT, WITH LIGHT
NORTHWEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN THEIR WAKE. LOWS TONIGHT
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE
WILL ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CHANCES BEGIN IN NORTHEAST COLORADO AROUND MID
DAY, THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH BEST
CHANCES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. HOWEVER, WITH DRY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND DEW POINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S,
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ACROSS THE REGION RANGING FROM 30 TO 50
KTS, BUT THE LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD TRANSLATE TO LOW SEVERE
CHANCES, WITH PERHAPS THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREA,
GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES IN KANSAS, WHERE HRRR DOES SHOW
SOME UPDRAFT HELICITY. MAIN HAZARDS SHOULD THEY OCCUR WOULD BE
HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZED AND GUSTY WINDS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN COLORADO TO THE MID 40S IN NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH WILL LIFT NNE-NE FROM THE 4-CORNERS TO NORTHEAST CO
WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LEE CYCLONE OVER
EASTERN COLORADO AND EXTREME WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH (IN
THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL-SOUTHERN ROCKIES) AND DEEP VERTICAL
MIXING WILL ASSIST THE NORTHWARD ADVANCEMENT OF A PRONOUNCED
DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. BY 00Z, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE NW-
SE ORIENTED DRYLINE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG/NEAR A LINE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM YUMA TO GOODLAND AND SCOTT CITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROBUST SEVERE
WEATHER, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHERN AND EASTERN EXTENT INTO
CENTRAL KS.. WHERE RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH A PRONOUNCED
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (700-500 MB LAPSE RATES ~9 C/KM) WILL
FOSTER STRONG INSTABILITY (3000-4000 J/KG MLCAPE). CURRENT AND
RECENT CONVECTION ALLOWING GUIDANCE INDICATE TWO POTENTIAL AREAS
OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON: [1]
ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 OVER PORTIONS OF YUMA-CHEYENNE-SHERMAN
COUNTIES ~21-22Z AND [2] SOUTH OF I-70 AND ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY
83 (GOVE COUNTY) ~22-23Z. GIVEN THAT RIGHT-MOVER MOTION WILL BE
FROM THE SSW-SW (200-220 DEGREES) AT ~30 KNOTS, THE 'WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY' FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NWS GOODLAND COUNTY
WARNING AREA WILL BE FAIRLY SHORT IN DURATION (~4 HOURS), MAINLY
BETWEEN ~21-02Z. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE
PRIMARY MODE. ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE ON THE TABLE. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA AFTER
CONVECTION EXITS (~03-04Z THIS EVENING).. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
AND PROFOUNDLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE DRYLINE
(ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70), WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 35-45
KNOT FLOW THROUGHOUT A VERY DEEP MIXED LAYER.. AND SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 30-40 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 55 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR
TO SUNSET.
MON-MON NIGHT: THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL EVOLVE INTO A
BROAD (ALBEIT COMPLEX) UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT SLOWLY PROGRESSES
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS IN THIS PERIOD. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY LIFTING NNE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
(TONIGHT) WILL EVOLVE INTO CUT-OFF, VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER
SOUTH DAKOTA ON MON. IN THE LOWER LEVELS.. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL
EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND KANSAS. WHILE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON,
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT.. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY BE RELEGATED TO CENTRAL-EASTERN KS (EAST OF HWY 283).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY A SURFACE LOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AROUND THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA/NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE
LINES AS BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH AS
30 KNOT 850MB JET REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A
45-50 KNOT 700MB JET REMAINS IN PLACE, ASSUMING IF SOME MIXING
CAN OCCUR THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A ROGUE 60 MPH GUST
OCCURS IF THESE TRENDS HOLD. AT THIS TIME TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY BUT IF THE LOW SETS UP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THEN
SOME VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW MOVES IT A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT TO THE WEST. IF THIS SHIFT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER TO OCCUR
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER WHICH MAY BRING SOME
FROST OR MAYBE FREEZE CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
WOULD BE IMPACTFUL GIVEN WE ARE WELL PAST OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL
LAST FREEZE DATE. LUCKILY THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THIS OUT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY
TRY TO SPARK SOME STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH IF CURRENT PLACEMENT HOLDS PUTS THE REGION
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. TYPICALLY IN THESE
PATTERNS WEAK WAVES THAT ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; WHAT MAKES THIS
INTERESTING IS THAT THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SIGNALS ARE SOME
EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
MAY EMERGE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS STILL BEING 5-7
DAYS OUT A LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY RETURN AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO START OUT FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGH SIN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
MY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S AGAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AS
THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME CONCERN FOR FROST AND MAYBE FREEZE TO
START THE PERIOD BEFORE A RECOVER TO MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 50S BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
DIRECTLY IMPACTING EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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