232
FXUS63 KGLD 191914
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
114 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
HAIL IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN NORTHWEST KANSAS, MAINLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN 3-7 PM MDT.
- BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 WHERE SUSTAINED
WINDS AT 30-40 MPH MAY GUST UP TO 55 MPH DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
TODAY: A BROAD AND SOMEWHAT COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW
(SITUATED OVER THE ROCKIES THIS MORNING) WILL PROGRESS EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. BREEZY NNW-NW WINDS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
WILL KEEP RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-
STATE AREA TODAY.. WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS FALLING THROUGH THE
40'S AND INTO THE 30'S THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE, UNIMPEDED INSOLATION AND MODERATELY STEEP (7.5 C/KM)
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FOSTER MARGINAL DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION (~500 J/KG MLCAPE) OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND STRONG CYCLONIC SHEAR
VORTICITY (ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE REGION) WILL FOSTER THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/STORMS IN EASTERN CO AND WESTERN KS THIS AFTERNOON..
MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70 BETWEEN ~21-01Z. MODEST (~25-30 KT)
EFFECTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY FOSTER OCCASIONAL AND/OR
TRANSIENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION (ESP. IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
UPPER FORCING).. AS ONE MIGHT INFER FROM SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY
FORECASTS VIA CURRENT AND RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR. WITH THIS IN
MIND, AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER
SIZED HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.. MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-70
BETWEEN ~21-01Z.
TUESDAY: SPEEDY WNW FLOW ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN
THIS PERIOD.. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH/LOW AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTS NNE-N TO THE CENTRAL MS RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. A
TIGHT 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENT ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
LOW WILL FOSTER 35-45 KNOT LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER NEBRASKA AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KANSAS, WHERE UNIMPEDED INSOLATION AND
MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL PROMOTE ROBUST VERTICAL
MIXING DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WITH THIS IN MIND,
BREEZY TO STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA ON TUESDAY, STRONGEST ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 WHERE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUSTAINED WINDS ~30-40 MPH. IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA.. GUSTS MAY APPROACH 55 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL CREATE DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND, WHEN COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY, WILL FOSTER A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1218 PM MDT SUN MAY 18 2025
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTING TUESDAY A SURFACE LOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AROUND THE SOUTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA/NEBRASKA/IOWA STATE
LINES AS BREEZY TO GUSTY NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THIS LOW. WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH
ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH AS
30 KNOT 850MB JET REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A
45-50 KNOT 700MB JET REMAINS IN PLACE, ASSUMING IF SOME MIXING
CAN OCCUR THEN WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A ROGUE 60 MPH GUST
OCCURS IF THESE TRENDS HOLD. AT THIS TIME TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN DRY BUT IF THE LOW SETS UP A LITTLE FURTHER WEST THEN
SOME VORTICITY MAXIMA MAY LEAD TO SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THIS LOW MOVES IT A COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WHICH
IS FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY MORNING LOWS INTO THE 30S. AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH ALSO MOVES INTO THE AREA WITH THE FRONT
WHICH IS FORECAST TO BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE THEY
SHIFT TO THE WEST. IF THIS SHIFT TO THE WEST IS SLOWER TO OCCUR
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER WHICH MAY BRING SOME
FROST OR MAYBE FREEZE CONCERNS TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHICH
WOULD BE IMPACTFUL GIVEN WE ARE WELL PAST OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL
LAST FREEZE DATE. LUCKILY THIS SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SHORT LIVED AS A LEE TROUGH AHEAD OF WESTERN CONUS RIDGING
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES THIS OUT OF THE AREA. SOME GUIDANCE DOES
INDICATE A WEAK WAVE MOVING THROUGH WITH THIS ACTIVITY WHICH MAY
TRY TO SPARK SOME STORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS SO WILL NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WEAK
MID LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE INTER
MOUNTAIN WEST WHICH IF CURRENT PLACEMENT HOLDS PUTS THE REGION
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE. TYPICALLY IN THESE
PATTERNS WEAK WAVES THAT ARE NOT HANDLED WELL BY LONG RANGE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA; WHAT MAKES THIS
INTERESTING IS THAT THERE ARE ALREADY SOME SIGNALS ARE SOME
EMBEDDED WAVES WHICH MAKES ME THINK THAT ANOTHER ACTIVE PATTERN
MAY EMERGE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THIS STILL BEING 5-7
DAYS OUT A LOT CAN AND WILL CHANGE BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER MAY RETURN AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TUESDAY IS
FORECAST TO START OUT FAIRLY COOL WITH HIGH SIN THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
MY WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE MID 80S AGAIN FRIDAY ESPECIALLY AS
THAT RIDGE BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN. FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AS
MENTIONED ABOVE, SOME CONCERN FOR FROST AND MAYBE FREEZE TO
START THE PERIOD BEFORE A RECOVER TO MORE SEASONABLE LOWS IN THE
UPPER 50S AND MID 50S BY THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT MON MAY 19 2025
GLD: ASIDE FROM A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS ~21-02Z THIS AFTERNOON
(MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70), VFR CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 20-30 KNOT NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO
10-20 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. IF
WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.. NORTHWESTERLY LOW- LEVEL WIND
SHEAR MAY WELL BE PRESENT. NW WINDS WILL MARKEDLY STRENGTHEN
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (~12-14Z) TUESDAY MORNING.. INCREASING TO
25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
MCK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. 15-25
KNOT NW WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10-20 KNOTS AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. IF WINDS BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT..
NORTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY WELL BE PRESENT. NW
WINDS WILL MARKEDLY STRENGTHEN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE (~12-14Z)
TUESDAY MORNING.. INCREASING TO 25-35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT
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