684  
FXUS63 KGLD 292344  
AFDGLD  
 
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS  
544 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
   
KEY MESSAGES
 
 
- SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH  
AND PING-PONG BALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS.  
 
- POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING DUST WHERE RAIN HAS NOT OCCURRED OVER  
THE LAST DAY OR SO.  
 
- FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS TONIGHT MAY OCCUR WHERE PROLONGED  
RAINFALL OCCURS. FAVORED AREA IS NORTH OF I-70 AND EAST OF A  
GOODLAND TO BENKELMAN LINE.  
 
- MOSTLY DRY AFTER TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS RETURNING  
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN  
CONUS, WITH A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A SHORT WAVE  
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK COLD FRONT  
HAD MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, TURNING WINDS TO THE EAST  
BEHIND IT. MORNING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED STORMS FORMING ALONG THIS  
FRONT IN NORTH CENTRAL KS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED GRAVITY WAVES  
EXTENDING UP TO ATLEAST THE MID TROPOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONT. NORTH  
OF THE FIRST FRONT WAS A SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRAVITY WAVES  
WERE ALSO EVIDENT BEHIND THIS SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MIDLEVEL  
CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES  
SOUTH. THE FRONT IS MOVING SOUTH FASTER THAN THE CLOUDS, CAUSING  
THE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT TO ERODE THE CLOUD COVER.  
 
FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE RATHER MESSY  
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SECOND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIGGERS  
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST NEAR TERM MODEL DATA INDICATES THE SECONDARY  
FRONT IS WHAT STORMS WILL FORM OFF OF LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE  
QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE FRONT BE BY THAT TIME. BASED ON THE  
SPEED OF THE SECONDARY FRONT, IT SHOULD BE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY  
MID AFTERNOON, ASSUMING OUTFLOW FROM THE STORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY  
WELL EAST OF DODGE CITY DOES NOT PUSH THE FRONT BACK NORTH SOME. IF  
THE FRONT IS NOT PUSHED BACK NORTH, THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG IT  
WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.  
 
FOCUS FOR STORM ACTIVITY TONIGHT IS ON THE LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL  
MOVE EAST OUT OF COLORADO THIS EVENING. NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO  
SUPPORT THIS BEING THE MAIN SHOW FOR STORM ACTIVITY. THE LATEST  
SHORT TERM MODEL ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWS RATHER WIDE SPREAD WIND GUSTS  
OF 60-70 MPH, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF 80 MPH GUSTS. THE DATA  
IS INDICATING THE OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TIED TO THE LINE OF  
STORMS INSTEAD OF RACING OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE  
STORMS TO MAINTAIN THEIR INTENSITY/ORGANIZATION. THE WORST WINDS  
WILL BE ALONG THE POINT OF ANY BOW THAT FORMS, WHICH LOOKS TO OCCUR  
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE 0-3KM BULK SHEAR IS PERPENDICULAR TO THE  
LINE, HOWEVER THE SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK; AROUND 15-20 KTS AT MOST.  
HOWEVER THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS 30 KTS AND IS ALSO PERPENDICULAR TO  
THE LINE. THIS CONTINUES TO RAISE CONCERN FOR BRIEF SPINUPS  
TORNADOES OCCURRING ALONG THE LINE OF STORMS; WHICH LOOKS MORE  
LIKELY THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS GIVEN THE OUTFLOW WINDS SHOULD  
STAY WITH THE STORM ACTIVITY NOT AHEAD OF IT. IF TORNADOES DO FORM  
THEY WILL BE RAIN WRAPPED. LARGE HAIL DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A THREAT  
AS STORMS MERGING TOGETHER. HOWEVER, EARLY IN THE EVENING, ANY LONE  
STORMS MAY POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL BEFORE MERGING INTO THE LINE.  
 
ANOTHER HAZARD GAINING ATTENTION IS THE HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING.  
PROPAGATION VECTORS ARE AROUND 20 MPH TONIGHT, QUITE SLOW. SO WHILE  
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY MAY MOVE THROUGH RATHER  
QUICKLY, THE STORM ACTIVITY AS A WHOLE MAY NOT MOVE AS FAST. IF  
THIS OCCURS IT WILL CAUSE THE STORM ACTIVITY TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE  
TO THE EAST; AS IS BEING SHOW IN SOME OF THE NEAR TERM MODEL DATA.  
THE FAVORED AREA FOR THE HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE  
FORECAST AREA LATE EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  
 
TONIGHT A STOUT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST  
WYOMING THEN CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL DIP SOUTH INTO THE NORTHEAST PART  
OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE STORM  
ACTIVITY WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH, WHICH MAY MERGE  
WITH THE ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE MERGING  
OF THIS STORM ACTIVITY MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING. DEEP  
LAYER SHEAR IS 20-30 KTS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER WINDS VERTICALLY ARE  
AROUND 20KTS CONSISTENTLY WHICH IS NOT TOO SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE  
THUNDERSTORMS; MORE LIKE STORMS PULSING IN INTENSITY. WITH STORMS  
LIKELY IN A GROUP ALREADY, THE MAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE  
STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL/MAYBE EVEN  
FLOODING IF HEAVY RAINFALL PERSISTS OVER THE SAME AREA LONG ENOUGH.  
THIS STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA  
AROUND 7 AM CT MONDAY MORNING, IF NOT BEFORE.  
 

 
   
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 1146 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER GIVEN THE COOLER AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THE  
COLD FRONT FROM TODAY. SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERSION PRESENT DURING  
THE MORNING, WITH ELEVATED CAPE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER, THIS LOOKS TO  
BE BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH  
FROM THE STORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO  
THE WEST STRENGTHENS, WHICH SHOULD ROUTE STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF  
THE FORECAST AREA THAT WOULD COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS  
CONTINUES TO SHOW NO STORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA, WHICH  
SEEMS REASONABLE. HIGHS FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY AND SATURDAY ARE  
SEASONAL, IN THE 90S.  
 
THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST LOOKS DRY FOR THE MOST PART. THE  
RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL  
PLAINS. THIS WILL ROUTE STORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK THE RIDGE MAY SHIFT EAST OF THE  
FORECAST AREA. IF THIS HAPPENS, THAT WOULD ALLOW UPPER LEVEL SHORT  
WAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS SHOW ONE SUCH  
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL HAVE A  
LARGE IMPACT ON INDEPENDENCE DAY ACTIVITIES. ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF  
STORM ACTIVITY COULD HAPPEN EACH EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  
 

 
   
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
 
 
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. MAIN FOCUS  
CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING LINE OF STORMS TO THE WEST. AS  
THE STORMS MOVE THROUGH ANTICIPATE CONDITIONS WORSENING. STRONG  
TO SEVERE WINDS FROM THE WEST AS THE STORMS NEAR, THEN COULD  
HAVE BREEZY WINDS COME FROM THE EAST AS THE STORMS DEPART THE  
SITES. LATEST MODEL DATA REMOVED THE LLWS FOR KMCK; LOOKS LIKE  
THAT FEATURE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE MAY BE LOW  
CLOUDS BEHIND THE STORM ACTIVITY. HOWEVER MOST CONSENSUS DATA IS  
NOT SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL.  
 

 
   
HYDROLOGY
 
 
ISSUED AT 515 AM MDT SUN JUN 29 2025  
 
WITH THE STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING, THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE  
MULTIPLE HIGH PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS MOVE OVER THE SAME AREA,  
LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. BASED ON A MIXTURE OF 0Z HREF,  
AND MPAS GUIDANCE, AS WELL AS OTHER CAMS, THE MOST LIKELY AREAS  
TO SEE A FLOODING RISK WOULD BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KANSAS.  
THERE ARE TWO POTENTIAL SETUPS THAT COULD CREATE THIS FLOODING  
CONCERN.  
 
THE FIRST RISK OF FLOODING WOULD BE OFF OF THE FIRST  
LINE OF STORMS. IF THESE STORMS FORM IN A LINE ORIENTED IN THEIR  
DIRECTION OF TRAVEL, AND STAY CONCENTRATED AND DO NO SPREAD OUT,  
TRAINING STORMS FROM THIS LINE COULD LEAD UP TO 2-5 INCHES OF  
RAIN FALLING IN SOME LOCATIONS. IF THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT,  
AREAS ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF INITIATION ZONE OF THIS LINE  
WILL BE AT THE HIGHEST RISK OF FLOODING. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO  
OCCUR IS AROUND 10-15%.  
 
THE SECOND RISK WOULD BE FROM AN MCV FORMING AS THE SECOND, AND  
POTENTIALLY THIRD, WAVES OF STORMS COLLIDE. FOR THIS RISK TO  
OCCUR, THE SECOND WAVE OF STORMS WOULD NEED TO BE STRONGER THAN  
THE FIRST WAVE,, AND TWO SETS OF CLUSTERED STORMS WOULD SUSTAIN  
THEMSELVES AND COLLIDE IN NORTHWESTERN KANSAS OR SOUTHWESTERN  
NEBRASKA. POTENTIAL FOR THIS RISK WOULD GREATLY INCREASE IF THE  
FIRST WAVE DOES NOT FORM AT ALL. THIS RISK WOULD LEAD TO BE  
MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING RISK, LIKELY AROUND THE SIZE OF A  
COUNTY. THIS COULD LEAD TO 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING AND AREAS  
AROUND, AND INCLUDING, DECATUR COUNTY LOOK TO BE AT THE HIGHEST  
RISK FOR THIS FLOODING THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS  
AROUND 10%.  
 

 
   
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
 
 
KS...NONE.  
CO...NONE.  
NE...NONE.  
 

 
 

 
 
SHORT TERM...JTL  
LONG TERM...JTL  
AVIATION...JTL  
HYDROLOGY...CA  
 
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