498
FXUS63 KGLD 010509
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1109 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WITH A
RISK FOR STRONG WINDS.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS. POSSIBLY, AN INCREASE IN
SEVERE CHANCES LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE DRY WITH THE SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TOMORROW, CAMS SHOW CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG THE LEE TROUGH
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO TO SOUTHEAST WYOMING IN THE AFTERNOON,
HELPED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE TOPPING THE RIDGE. QUESTION WILL BE
IF ANY OF THAT CONVECTION CAN SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT
INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. NAMNEST MOST AGGRESSIVE AS USUAL,
SHOWING A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER IN WESTERN NEBRASKA DIVING
SOUTHEAST IN THE EVENING, WHILE THE HRRR SHOWING A BROKEN LINE
OF DECAYING SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. SO WILL INTRODUCE
SOME LOW POPS ACROSS AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE NAMNEST SHOWING A RATHER ROBUST
COLD POOL WITH THE CLUSTER IN NEBRASKA. ANY STORM THREAT SHOULD
BE OVER BY LATE IN THE EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 60S.
THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MODELS
SHOW AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
MAKE LITTLE IF ANY PROGRESSION EASTWARD. WITH THE STRENGTHENING
RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOW TO
MID 90S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S.
THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST ON THURSDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS TROUGH
EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN AND FRONT
RANGE CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT, MAINTAINED BY
THE TROUGH ALOFT. ENVIRONMENT BY THAT TIME WILL BE WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED, SUGGESTING A MARGINAL AT BEST RISK
FOR A LOW-END SEVERE STORM AND ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
A BROAD ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE
SHEARING OUT AS A NEW ONE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY, POSSIBLY A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED. FORCING
IS ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM THE UPPER WAVE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL LOW END
SEVERE RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, BUT MORE OF AN UPSLOPE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
NO REAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
END RESULT WILL BE RATHER TYPICAL WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN THIS PATTERN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A SEVERE RISK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
12Z, GENERALLY WITH HEIGHTS BETWEEN 3500-7500FT. OTHERWISE,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH CLOUDS ABOVE 5000FT ARE FORECAST. WINDS
SHOULD SHIFT TO OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH 11Z, WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 8 KTS. BY ABOUT 14-15Z, SPEEDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR STORMS AFTER 00Z AT BOTH
TERMINALS. STORMS WOULD MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IF THEY DID FORM
AND SURVIVE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...KAK
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