079
FXUS63 KGLD 011116
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
516 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. WINDS OF
40-60 MPH ARE THE MAIN RISK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCREASES
LATER IN THE WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 248 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
OVERALL, A FAIRLY STABLE PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT-TERM.
AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH HAS MOVED INTO THE HIGH PLAINS, WHICH WILL KEEP
OUR POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED AND SEVERE CONVECTION PRETTY LOW. THIS
EVENING, WE COULD SEE SOME DECAYING STORMS MOVE IN FROM NORTHEASTERN
COLORADO. THESE STORMS AND SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE SOME 40-60 MPH GUSTS
AROUND THE TRI-STATE BORDER, BUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS
LESS THAN 10%, POTENTIAL FOR STORMS AT ALL IS LESS THAN 30%, AND
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 0-6Z. TOMORROW, THE HIGH LOOKS TO BE EVEN
STRONGER OVER THE CWA, BASICALLY ELIMINATING ANY POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE HIGH EXTENDING DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND BEING OFF TO THE
EAST, WE ARE EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THE
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP US REBOUND FROM OUR RECENT COLD
FRONT AS HIGHS LOOK TO WARM TO AROUND 90. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TOMORROW, BUT A LOW NEAR THE ROCKIES WILL BE A BIGGER
FACTOR WITH THESE WINDS. HOWEVER, CLEAR SKIES WILL ONCE PERSIST AND
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. GOING BACK TO THE
WINDS FOR TODAY, RAP, GFS, NAM, AND SREF GUIDANCE ARE ALL SHOWING A
10-18 KTS 850 MM FLOW. THIS WILL BE THE GENERAL, SUSTAINED SPEED OF
WINDS TODAY, HOWEVER THE NBM IS THROWING IN GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS IN
EASTERN COLORADO. THE NBM'S WINDS SEEM A LITTLE HIGH BASED ON FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND GUSTS OF 20-25 KTS SEEM FAR MORE LIKELY,
BUT IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP, THE STRONGER WINDS WOULD
BE POSSIBLE.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES LOOK TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WITH WINDS REMAINING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY. IF THE WINDS
BECOME CALMER THAN EXPECTED, OR HAVE MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT,
SOME PATCH FOG MAY FORM, BUT THAT POTENTIAL IS LESS THAN 10%.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 100 PM MDT MON JUN 30 2025
A BROAD ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES ON FRIDAY WITH A
COUPLE OF EMBEDDED WAVES. THE FIRST WAVE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE
SHEARING OUT AS A NEW ONE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC WEST COAST.
MODELS SHOW A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY, POSSIBLY A FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION,
ALTHOUGH PRECISE LOCATION VARIES MODEL TO MODEL. OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED. FORCING
IS ALSO NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM THE UPPER WAVE. WOULD EXPECT TO
SEE WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL LOW END
SEVERE RISK FOR WIND AND HAIL WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP.
MESSY PATTERN CONTINUES ON SATURDAY WITH WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW
ALOFT, BUT MORE OF AN UPSLOPE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE. THERE IS
NO REAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.
END RESULT WILL BE RATHER TYPICAL WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS WITH A LOW RISK FOR SEVERE.
SUNDAY WILL SEE A RIDGE BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES, AMPLIFYING NORTHWARD ON MONDAY. CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL SEE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVES TOPPING THE RIDGE
CONTRIBUTING TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE IN BOTH INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IN THIS PATTERN, WHICH MAY LEAD TO MORE OF A SEVERE RISK.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER,
WE ARE SEEING SOME STRATUS FORMING AROUND THE KMCK AREA, BUT NO
OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING CEILINGS BELOW 5,000 FT AGL, AND THAT
SHOULD PERSIST. WE CANNOT FULLY RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL OF
CEILINGS APPROACHING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM DECAYING STORMS AT
KMCK AROUND 3-9Z, BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 15%. BESIDES THESE
IMPACTS, THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION BEING A FACTOR AT
EITHER SITE TODAY IS LESS THAN 10%. WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP
TODAY, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 KTS,
BUT SOME GUSTS OF 30 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...CA
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