510
FXUS63 KGLD 011941
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. MAIN THREAT IS STRONG WINDS WITH POSSIBLE
GUSTS UPWARDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH.
- STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS FRIDAY CONTINUING POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
EXPECTED LATE DAY FOCUSED LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NORTHEAST CO DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST KS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF 40 TO 60 MPH GUSTS.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS AND SHORT-TERM FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT
ROUND THE 4-CORNERS H5 RIDGE A WEAK-WAVE IMPULSE WILL TRANSCEND OVER
OUR FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF WHICH THERE ARE ALREADY INDICATIONS OF A
WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE FRONT-RANGE COLLOCATED WITH
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT. AN UPTICK IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WITHIN
THE COLUMN THROUGH WHICH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP, WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WE SHOULD SEE EROSION OF THE CAP AND DEVELOPMENT OF
INSTABILITY. INVERTED-V SOUNDING SETUP, WITH HIGH BASE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED, EVAPORATIVE COOLING THROUGH THE COLUMN, IT IS NO SURPRISE
TO SEE DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG.
BUT ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND CORE-LOFTING IS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. OF
CERTAINTY IS THE BETTER ENVIRONMENT OVER NORTHEAST CO WITH ATTENDANT
INCREASE IN LOW-MID LEVEL WINDS WITH AFOREMENTIONED H5 WEAK IMPULSE.
YET AGAINST N DRIFTING SUB-TROPICAL ENERGY OVER OK / TX AHEAD OF A
DOMINANT TROF AXIS OVER CA, HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE MAINTAINED
OVER A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR AREA AND AREAS AROUND NORTHEAST KS LOOK TO
BE IN FAVORABLE REGIONS OF SUBSIDENCE. A SQUEEZE PLAY.
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS PER STORM PREDICTION CENTER, NO
SURPRISE TO SEE THE GREATER THREAT NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH EXPECTED
DYNAMICS. BUT AGAIN AN EYE ON NORTHEAST CO. S WINDS PREVAILING WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES DOWN MOMENTUM AS HIGH AS
10 KFT AGL, ESPECIALLY IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE MID-LEVEL WEAK WAVE IMPULSE. HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. MONITORING OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH REMNANT
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED FROM LINGERING DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS. WHERE IT
RAINS MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR LOW STRATUS, MAYBE SOME PATCHY FOG IN
LOW-LYING AREAS.
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
LOOKING FAIRLY QUIET. WEAKENING W CONUS TROF AXIS OUT AHEAD OF WHICH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE OK / TX REGION IS BEING USURPED N, AN
EXPECTATION THAT SUBSIDENCE WILL PREVAIL YIELDING DRY WEATHER. S
WINDS CONTINUE TO PREVAIL, BREEZY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS UP
TO AROUND 25 MPH AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MIXES OUT UPWARDS OF 10
KFT YET AGAIN. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S WITH LOWS INTO THE 60S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. H3-5
TROF ACROSS WESTERN N AMERICA WEAKENS N AS THE SUMMER-TIME PATTERN
EVOLVES WITH A MONSOONAL HIGH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE
CONUS. IT'S DURING THE EVOLUTION WE SEE A RETURN OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST OUT AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAIN THROUGH THE BROADER SW TO AN
EVOLVING ZONAL PATTERN. IT'S WITHIN THIS PATTERN THAT WAVE IMPULSES
WILL INVIGORATE A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WEATHER EVENT FOR FRIDAY
SEEMINGLY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HEAT AND INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL UPON
WHICH ANY LIFT AND FORCING MECHANISMS, IF PRESENT, WILL INVIGORATE
ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY.
SO, IN BREVITY, ORGANIZED STORMS FOR FRIDAY IN OUR VICINITY. A CLOSE
EYE ON A LIKELY EVOLVING DRYLINE OUT AHEAD OF WHICH INSTABILITY WILL
PREVAIL. BETTER SHEAR PARENT WITH AN ANTICIPATED MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS
MAKES THE CASE FOR ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO
SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND POTENTIAL THREATS.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, CONTINUED INSTABILITY BENEATH THE
EVOLVING ZONAL PATTERN THAT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DIPS WITH
ENERGY FROM THE N IN INVIGORATING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE N CONUS ALONG WHICH LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL FOCUS MESO-
SCALE CONVECTIVE STORM SYSTEMS SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR
REGION SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL INFLUENCES.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, A MESSY PATTERN, PREVAILING S
WINDS, UPSLOPING BOTH HEAT AND INSTABILITY. WASH, RINSE, REPEAT OF
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A WEAK-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
YIELDING A LOW RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S
WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1118 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
VFR PREVAILS WITH FEW-SCT 040-080 OUT AHEAD OF A LINE OF TSRA
EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST CO BY 22Z SWEEPING GRADUALLY SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS KGLD / KMCK BY 6Z AND DISSIPATING. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
BOTH LOCATIONS REMAIN DRY. S WINDS WITH G20-25KT INTO EARLY
EVENING, DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. CAN NOT RULE OUT GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 30 KT.
OVERNIGHT, MAIN CONCERN IS FOR LOW CIGS AT KMCK AROUND 6Z TIME-
FRAME. NOT CONFIDENT ON LOWER THAN VFR AT THIS MOMENT, WILL
EVALUATE WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCE.
TOMORROW, MOSTLY SKC BUT CAN'T RULE OUT FEW 040-080 AGAIN. S
WINDS RETURN 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
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