011
FXUS63 KGLD 021708
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORM POTENTIAL RETURNS FRIDAY CONTINUING POSSIBLY INTO NEXT
WEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE 90S THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
HOT AND DRY. BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, SUBTLE HEIGHT RISES,
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN, EXPECT
SUBSIDENCE TO PREVAIL. MIXING UP TO H7 (10 KFT) EASILY THROUGHOUT
WHICH WINDS SHOULD BE BREEZY BUT NOT BLUSTERY, EXPECT SUSTAINED S
WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP AROUND 20 MPH AS THE
SKY REMAINS CLEAR AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. CAN
NOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 90S GIVEN THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND DEEP LAYER MIXING.
WINDS TAPER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE SKY REMAINS CLEAR. THE
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 TO
25 PERCENT AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S W TO
E ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD ALLOW FOR LOWS TO GET DOWN TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...
BLUSTERY S WINDS. AS THE W CONUS H5 TROF WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS NE IN
ADVANCE OF CONTINUED WAVE TRAIN OF N PACIFIC ENERGY, THE BROAD RIDGE
PATTERN SHUNTED E, THE SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE FALLS AND INCREASING SW
TO NE GRADIENT PROMOTES STRONG S WINDS WHILE ADVECTING SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE N AT THE SURFACE THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS. SUBTLE COOLING OF
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WITH MOIST ADVECTION AND ANTICIPATED DEEP-LAYER
MIXING UP AROUND 5 KFT, EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGH
THE DAY THAT SHOULD KEEP HIGHS AROUND THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AS
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH WITH THE MIX DOWN OF FASTER WINDS ALOFT. THROUGHOUT IT
ALL, MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 30
PERCENT.
OVERNIGHT, THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN STRONG SO ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY. PERHAPS SOME LOW LYING AREAS COULD DECOUPLE BECOMING
LIGHT BUT HAVE DOUBTS. NEVERTHELESS, THE CONTINUED S WINDS ADVECTING
BOTH MOISTURE AND WARMER AIR ALOFT, AS GROUND TEMPERATURES COOL HAVE
EXPECTATIONS OF A CAPPING INVERSION BENEATH WHICH MOISTURE SHOULD BE
ALLOWED TO POOL THUS PROMOTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS INTO
THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. THIS MAY BE THE CASE OVER A MAJORITY OF
THE FORECAST AREA MINUS PERHAPS EAST-CENTRAL CO. LOWS IN THE MID 60S
MAINTAINED BY THE BREEZY S WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
POTENTIALLY ACTIVE PATTERN LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK. H3-5
TROF ACROSS WESTERN N AMERICA WEAKENS N AS THE SUMMER-TIME PATTERN
EVOLVES WITH A MONSOONAL HIGH ACROSS THE 4-CORNERS REGION OF THE
CONUS. IT'S DURING THE EVOLUTION WE SEE A RETURN OF 1.0 TO 1.5 INCH
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST OUT AHEAD
OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAIN THROUGH THE BROADER SW TO AN
EVOLVING ZONAL PATTERN. IT'S WITHIN THIS PATTERN THAT WAVE IMPULSES
WILL INVIGORATE A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE WEATHER EVENT FOR FRIDAY
SEEMINGLY EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEREAFTER FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK HEAT AND INSTABILITY WILL PREVAIL UPON
WHICH ANY LIFT AND FORCING MECHANISMS, IF PRESENT, WILL INVIGORATE
ADDITIONAL STORM ACTIVITY.
SO, IN BREVITY, ORGANIZED STORMS FOR FRIDAY IN OUR VICINITY. A CLOSE
EYE ON A LIKELY EVOLVING DRYLINE OUT AHEAD OF WHICH INSTABILITY WILL
PREVAIL. BETTER SHEAR PARENT WITH AN ANTICIPATED MID-LEVEL TROF AXIS
MAKES THE CASE FOR ORGANIZED STORM ACTIVITY. JUST A BIT TOO EARLY TO
SAY WITH ANY CERTAINTY ON CONVECTIVE MODE AND POTENTIAL THREATS.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK, CONTINUED INSTABILITY BENEATH THE
EVOLVING ZONAL PATTERN THAT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY DIPS WITH
ENERGY FROM THE N IN INVIGORATING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS OUR AREA. THIS AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER
THE N CONUS ALONG WHICH LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL FOCUS MESO-
SCALE CONVECTIVE STORM SYSTEMS SWEEPING SOUTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR
REGION SO WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY POTENTIAL INFLUENCES.
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECASTER MENTIONED, A MESSY PATTERN, PREVAILING S
WINDS, UPSLOPING BOTH HEAT AND INSTABILITY. WASH, RINSE, REPEAT OF
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN A WEAK-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
YIELDING A LOW RISK FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S
WITH LOWS DOWN IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MDT WED JUL 2 2025
VFR. S-SSW FLOW AROUND 200-220 AT AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH INTERMITTENT
GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS TODAY. SKC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF FEW 060-080
WITH RESPECT TO CIGS. SHOULD SEE WINDS TAPER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD AROUND 3Z WHILE REMAINING AROUND 180.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...SIPPRELL
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