545
FXUS63 KGLD 061618
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1018 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SLIGHT TO
ENHANCED RISK ON MONDAY.
- REMAINING MILD THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW 90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1015 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
THE TRI-STATE AREA REMAINS SITUATED IN A WEAK FORCING REGIME,
ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (ANCHORED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS), IN W TO WSW FLOW
ALOFT. WEAK LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW (<= 15 KNOTS FROM THE
SURFACE TO 500 MB) PERSISTS.. WITH STRONGER FLOW CONFINED TO THE
200-300 MB LEVEL (~25-35 KFT AGL). ANOTHER COMPLEX, CHALLENGING
CONVECTIVE FORECAST. COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT
LIMITED TO: LINGERING MESOSCALE FEATURES FROM ANTECEDENT
CONVECTION (E.G. A PROMINENT MCV NEAR LAMAR, CO AT 15 UTC) AND
ONGOING CONVECTION WITH A REMNANT MCS IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA
(BETWEEN GORDON/KGRN AND VALENTINE/KVTN AT 15 UTC). WEAK, ILL-
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL FORCING PERSISTS NEARBY AND UPSTREAM/WEST OF
THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA (I.E. NO APPRECIABLE OR
READILY APPARENT FEATURES IN WV IMAGERY OR SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA
AT 15 UTC).
RECENT 12Z RUNS OF THE HRRR AND NAM NEST SUGGEST A SCENARIO
ROUGHLY SIMILAR (MORE ROBUST, PERHAPS) TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED
YESTERDAY, I.E. SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE, CHEYENNE RIDGE AND PALMER DIVIDE AT
PEAK HEATING AND ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO CLUSTERS AND
PROGRESSES/PROPAGATES E-ESE INTO THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING (~23-06 UTC,
BEGINNING ~5 PM MDT, ENDING ~12 AM MDT). IF THIS IS THE CASE,
DAMAGING WINDS WOULD LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR ROUGHLY ANALOGOUS TO YESTERDAY.. E.G. THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER, SEASONABLY STRONG DCAPE,
MARGINAL-MODERATE DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION (500-1500 J/KG MLCAPE)
AND EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF SIMILAR MAGNITUDE (~25-35
KNOTS). 15 UTC OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND MESOANALYSIS TRENDS
SUGGEST THAT OUTFLOW EMANATING FROM ONGOING CONVECTION /REMNANT
MCS/ IN NORTHERN NEBRASKA MAY STALL NEAR, OR JUST NORTH, OF THE
I-80 CORRIDOR IN WESTERN NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE MOISTURE
POOLING IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY
FACILITATE MODERATE TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION (2000-2500 J/KG
MLCAPE).. AND A MORE ROBUST, ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL
MAY EXIST. WITH THIS IN MIND, LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 36 (OR ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM IDALIA TO ST.
FRANCIS, ATWOOD, OBERLIN AND NORTON) APPEAR TO BE MOST AT-RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT SAT JUL 5 2025
SUN-MON: GUIDANCE INDICATES RELATIVELY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
'BIG PICTURE', I.E. THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL REMAIN IN A WEAK
FORCING REGIME ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
(ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN MEXICO) IN WSW
FLOW ALOFT. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, COVERAGE AND EVOLUTION IN
THE GOODLAND COUNTY WARNING AREA MAY BE INFLUENCED (DIRECTLY OR
INDIRECTLY) BY UPSTREAM AND/OR ANTECEDENT CONVECTION ON EACH
DAY. BOTTOM LINE, LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST SPECIFICS
(CONVECTIVE MODE, COVERAGE, EVOLUTION). GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE
THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE PACIFIC
COAST WILL TIGHTEN THE HEIGHT GRADIENT (AND MAGNITUDE OF WSW
FLOW ALOFT) OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, 4-CORNERS AND PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.. SUGGESTING THAT STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR
(AND GREATER OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL) WILL EXIST ON
BOTH SUN-MON.
TUE-SAT: LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT RIDGING ALOFT WILL
PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, AND THAT THE TRI-STATE AREA
WILL REMAIN SITUATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE, AT
OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
BROADLY SPEAKING, EXPECT NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND
A DAILY POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFT-EVE CONVECTION (MAINLY IN
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLORADO
FRONT RANGE).. DEPENDING ON THE ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE AND
PROXIMITY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 505 AM MDT SUN JUL 6 2025
VFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THIS EVENING, THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY IN
RAIN. A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTERWARDS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...024
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