734
FXUS63 KGLD 101759
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1159 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
- REMAINING MILD THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW TO MID
90S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
BEGINNING AROUND 21Z IN OUR WESTERNMOST AREAS AND THEN
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. GENERALLY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY
PROGRESSIVE SO IT SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 06Z IF NOT
EARLIER. RECENT MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THIS SYTEM AS
IT MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA. REGARDLESS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL
DECENTLY FAVORABLE TO SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE BIGGEST LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE LACK OF SHEAR WITH THIS EVENT. IF WE GET
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS CAN BE OVERCOME, HOWEVER, THE
INSTABILITY IS LOOKING FAIRLY LACKING OVERALL TODAY, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE
LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WILL BE OUR WESTERNMOST AREAS, BUT IT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA. GIVEN THE HIGH DCAPE AMONG
OTHER VARIABLES, THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST
CONCERN TONIGHT WITH WINDS 60-75MPH POSSIBLE. WE ARE OUTLOOKED
IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC TO REFLECT THIS
THREAT. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THESE STORMS TO BE MOVING THROUGH
WILL BE STARTING AROUND 3PM MT FOR THE WESTERNMOST AREAS AND
GETTING TO OUR KANSAS COUNTIES BY AROUND 6PM MT. THE WHOLE THING
SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY MIDNIGHT MT.
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL, THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, AND WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
BY WPC FOR A CONCERN OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE OTHER THING THAT WE
WANTED TO MENTION IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR
BLOWING DUST WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TONIGHT IF THESE STORMS
COLD POOL QUICKLY, MAINLY SINCE THE SOIL WAS ABLE TO GET QUITE
DRY YESTERDAY FROM THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE CONCERN IS
A BIT LESSER NOW GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY,
VISIBILITIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RESULT, SO WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE TO MENTION IT. MSW
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNTIL A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING LOOKING AT THE RECENT
MODEL TRENDS, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR THESE
STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR RIGHT
NOW APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF SHEAR, BUT IT IS ENOUGH/DECENT.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (60-70MPH) AND A
SECONDARY LOWER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR
ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS CONCERN. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DURING EVENING HOURS PREDOMINANTLY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVEMENT OR TRAINING SO THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR MINOR FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT. WE ARE OUTLOOKED
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY WPC TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
RISK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT
NOW, THE SYSTEM MAY NOT LINE UP WITH THE BEST FORCING/LIFTING.
BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS, BASED ON THE INITIAL MODES, ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH, AND WE WILL BE MONITORING IT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. MSW
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL AREA AIRPORTS. PROB30 GROUPS ARE
IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING MVFR CONDITIONS FROM 6P-9P
TIMEFRAME DUE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AT BOTH AREA AIRPORTS DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT. WIND SHIFTS GREATER THAN 30 DEGREES
WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. MSW
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...WILLIAMS
LONG TERM...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...WILLIAMS
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