205
FXUS63 KGLD 111122
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
522 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DAILY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
AND INTO SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
- REMAINING MILD THROUGHOUT WITH HIGHS AROUND THE LOW TO MID
90S.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 200 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE WILL ALSO AID IN LIFT. MODELS IN RARE GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND
NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. INITIALLY, HAZARDS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SOME BLOWING DUST/LOCALIZED
DUST STORMS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS NOT MUCH RAIN FELL AND AFTER
ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TOP SOIL SHOULD STILL BE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO BLOWING. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY
STRONGER UPDRAFTS BUT INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED. AS THE
COMPLEX SETTLES INTO THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, CONCERN WILL
TURN TO HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. FAIRLY DECENT
SIGNAL FROM THE HREF 3-HOUR PMMS FOR 3-HR QPF TO EXCEED 1" IN A
SMALL AREA CENTERED AROUND THE TRI STATE BORDER
(YUMA/DUNDY/CHEYENNE KS), AND EVEN A LOW PROBABILITY FOR 3" IN
THE SAME AREA. THE 50% PROBABILITY FOR 1" EXTENDS ANOTHER COUNTY
OR SO BEYOND THAT, WHICH IS WHERE THE FLOODING RISK WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 03Z AND 09Z TONIGHT (9 PM MT TO
3 AM MT).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING
AROUND 21Z IN OUR WESTERNMOST AREAS AND THEN PROGRESSING
EASTWARD. GENERALLY, THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE SO IT
SHOULD BE OUT OF OUR AREA BY 06Z IF NOT EARLIER. RECENT MODEL
TRENDS HAVE BEEN WEAKENING THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH OUR
AREA. REGARDLESS, THE ENVIRONMENT IS STILL DECENTLY FAVORABLE TO
SEE SEVERE WEATHER. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE
LACK OF SHEAR WITH THIS EVENT. IF WE GET ENOUGH INSTABILITY THIS
CAN BE OVERCOME, HOWEVER, THE INSTABILITY IS LOOKING FAIRLY
LACKING OVERALL TODAY, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER
THAN EXPECTED THIS MORNING. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE BEST CHANCE
OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WILL BE OUR
WESTERNMOST AREAS, BUT IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA. GIVEN THE HIGH DCAPE AMONG OTHER VARIABLES, THE DAMAGING
WIND THREAT WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN TONIGHT WITH WINDS
60-75MPH POSSIBLE. WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER BY SPC TO REFLECT THIS THREAT. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THESE
STORMS TO BE MOVING THROUGH WILL BE STARTING AROUND 3PM MT FOR
THE WESTERNMOST AREAS AND GETTING TO OUR KANSAS COUNTIES BY
AROUND 6PM MT. THE WHOLE THING SHOULD BE THROUGH OUR AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MT.
AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL, THE FLASH
FLOODING THREAT WILL BE QUITE MINIMAL, AND WE ARE NOT OUTLOOKED
BY WPC FOR A CONCERN OF HEAVY RAINFALL. ONE OTHER THING THAT WE
WANTED TO MENTION IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME CONCERN FOR
BLOWING DUST WITH THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TONIGHT IF THESE STORMS
COLD POOL QUICKLY, MAINLY SINCE THE SOIL WAS ABLE TO GET QUITE
DRY YESTERDAY FROM THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. WHILE THE CONCERN IS
A BIT LESSER NOW GIVEN THE COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY,
VISIBILITIES MAY BE SLIGHTLY REDUCED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RESULT, SO WE WANTED TO MAKE SURE TO MENTION IT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2025
FRIDAY, ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN UNTIL A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. GENERALLY, SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
CONFIDENCE ON THIS HAS BEEN INCREASING LOOKING AT THE RECENT
MODEL TRENDS, BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS FAVORABLE ENOUGH FOR THESE
STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE. THE BIGGEST LIMITING FACTOR RIGHT
NOW APPEARS TO BE THE LACK OF SHEAR, BUT IT IS ENOUGH/DECENT.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS (60-70MPH) AND A
SECONDARY LOWER THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED OUR
ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS CONCERN. THE MAIN TIMING FOR THIS STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DURING EVENING HOURS PREDOMINANTLY. THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW MOVEMENT OR TRAINING SO THERE IS A
CONCERN FOR MINOR FLASH FLOODING AS A RESULT. WE ARE OUTLOOKED
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR HEAVY RAINFALL BY WPC TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
RISK.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT,
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SEVERITY AND TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. RIGHT
NOW, THE SYSTEM MAY NOT LINE UP WITH THE BEST FORCING/LIFTING.
BUT A LOT WILL DEPEND ON HOW THINGS DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
REGARDLESS, BASED ON THE INITIAL MODES, ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH, AND WE WILL BE MONITORING IT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 520 AM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
LOW CEILINGS MAY IMPACT KMCK FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS EARLY THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM COLORADO WITH REDUCED VISIBILITY
AND CEILINGS LIKELY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING
DUST MAY ACCOMPANY THE INITIAL ONSET OF STORMS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...WILLIAMS
LONG TERM...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...KAK
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