343
FXUS63 KGLD 120802
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
202 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A COOLER AND DRIER DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
STORMS GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH MON/TUES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 159 AM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE STORMS SHOULD BE OVER BY 3AM MT/4AM CT WITH THE
SHOWERS CONTINUING TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST. ALL THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD END BY ABOUT SUNRISE AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG IN THE AREA DUE TO ALL THE
MOISTURE IN THE AREA FROM THE RAIN.
FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, A COOLER AND CLEARER DAY IS FORECAST ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM TO AROUND 80 TODAY. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY START FROM THE NORTH AND EAST, BEFORE SHIFTING TO OUT OF
THE SOUTH LATER IN THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 10-15
MPH WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING BROAD ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, THERE IS ABOUT A 20% CHANCE THAT
MAYBE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GRAZE EASTERN COLORADO WITH THE
USUAL PRECIPITATION THAT FORMS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, MOST
OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR SHORT OF MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM
THE STORMS TO THE WEST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO AROUND 60 WITH
WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH. WINDS MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH THAT SOME
PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AGAIN CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1216 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE
AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY OVERALL SATURDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY AS A RESULT. WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANTLY
SOUTHERLY. SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE KEPT TO A MINIMUM
WITH RHS WELL ABOVE 20-30%. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN
THE MID 90S OVERALL WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 90S.
GENERALLY, EXPECT SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK, MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF RAINFALL AND SYSTEMS ARE POSSIBLE AS ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE
PATTERN AND 1-2 SHORTWAVES COULD INFLUENCE THE AREA. THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY IN THESE SYSTEMS, ESPECIALLY
SINCE ONE WILL INFLUENCE THE OTHER AS WE GO TOWARD THE WEEKEND.
GENERALLY, LOOKING AT THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS, ALL MODES OF
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AND
FLASH FLOODING COULD ALSO BE A CONCERN IN HILLY OR URBAN AREAS
WHERE RAIN TRAINS OR FALLS MULTIPLE TIMES OVER THE SAME AREA. A
LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK WILL BECOME MORE
CLEAR AS WE GET TO MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME. WE WILL KEEP
MONITORING CLOSELY FOR CHANGES. MSW
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1010 PM MDT FRI JUL 11 2025
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS EACH TERMINAL. AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO IMPACT KGLD JUST BEFORE THE
START OF THE PERIOD BUT SHOWER AND STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH AROUND 09Z WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. THE PERHAPS MORE IMPACTFUL TERMINAL IMPACTS
LOOK TO BE FOR KMCK WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER WINDS AROUND 45KT. AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR STRATUS TO
IMPACT KGLD STARTING AROUND 11Z, SOME FOG CAN'T BE RULED OUT BUT
THINK STRATUS IS MOST LIKELY. RAIN SHOULD END LATER AT KMCK THAN
AT KGLD SO NOT IMPACTING ANY IMPACTS. POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS MAY
LINGER AROUND UNTIL THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOR KGLD BEFORE FINALLY
CLEARING OUT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR KSZ001.
CO...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090.
NE...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR NEZ079.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...WILLIAMS
AVIATION...TRIGG
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