800
FXUS63 KGLD 131638
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TUESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT, CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER RIDGE NOSES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THERE COULD BE A FEW PATCHES OF FOG THIS MORNING AS DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN AROUND A FEW DEGREES OR LESS, BUT
SOUTH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS SHOULD HELP KEEP THINGS MIXED ENOUGH
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TO STAY CLEAR. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER TODAY IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH THE CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN THE FLOW ALOFT WHILE THE LACK OF FEATURES
KEEPS THE AREA IN A BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT. LOWS TONIGHT ARE
FORECAST TO COOL BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S WITH A FEW UPPER 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO HIGH PLAINS REGION. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING,
BRINGING SOME WEAK 20% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY FOR ANY
STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN REMAINING DOMINANT AND LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR FORCING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. SHOULD SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP, ALL MODES CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH FLASH FLOODING A
POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE WHO GET MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND THE 50S
TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY
SAGS INTO THE AREA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AM FORECASTING A CUMULUS
FIELD TO DEVELOP AROUND 20Z ALONG WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 02Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO THE LACK OF
FORCING AND THE LIMITED SPATIAL NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION
PRECLUDES ME FROM INTRODUCING INTO THE TAF. IF THIS STARTS TO
LOOK MORE PROBABLE OF OCCURRING OVER THEN AN AMD WILL BE
WARRANTED. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KGLD AS A
WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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