879
FXUS63 KGLD 131739
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1139 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- 5-10% CHANCE FOR SHOWER/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG A BOUNDARY
ROUGHLY FROM FLAGLER TO NORTON. SUDDEN/SPORADIC WIND GUSTS OF
50-60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO START THE WEEK.
- DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN TUESDAY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
DISSIPATING STRATUS ACROSS SW PORTIONS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO
IS ONGOING THIS MORNING YIELDING A RELATIVELY SUNNY AND WARMER DAY
THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHTER AS THE DAY GOES ON AS A SAGGING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO SET UP ACROSS THE AREA WHICH WILL
ESSENTIALLY ELIMINATE OUR WIND FIELD; OUTSIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY
HOWEVER (EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA) SOME
SPORADIC GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH DIURNAL MIXING. I
DID ADD IN SOME 5-10% CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS BOUNDARY WHICH
BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ROUGHLY FLAGLER UP
THROUGH NORTON. OVERALL FORCING IS NEBULOUS BUT RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DO SHOW US REACHING OUR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SO
IT'S NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A ROGUE SHOWER OR STORM TO DEVELOP WITH
SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE AS INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE IN
PLACE. THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME WITH THIS BOUNDARY OTHER THAN
SHIFTING WINDS IS CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT ALONG IT. NO LANDSPOUT
THREAT IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
SURFACE CONVERGENCE. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SOME WIND GUSTS ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
25 OF 20-25 MPH AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA.
SOME STRATUS CAN'T BE RULED OUT AS WELL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN
THROUGH THE DAY. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN NUDGES INTO THE AREA WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BRING SOME BREEZIER WINDS AROUND 25-35 MPH TO WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN
TODAY ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE AFTERNOON HOURS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY BUT COULD SEE SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
PALMER DIVIDE STORMS AFTER 6PM MT MOVING INTO EASTERN COLORADO WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED WITH THESE AS THEY SHOULD BE ON THE
WEAKENING TREND OF THINGS AS THEY MOVE IN, BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
A CLOSE EYE ON STRONGER WINDS AS THEY DISSIPATE ALONG WITH SOME
HEAT BURST POTENTIAL AS WELL. A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING
LEADING TO BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS AROUND
30 MPH.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 237 PM MDT SAT JUL 12 2025
MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FURTHER ACROSS
THE GREAT PLAINS WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGHS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE TO HIGH PLAINS REGION. MOISTURE WILL TRY TO ADVECT INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING,
BRINGING SOME WEAK 20% CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO. CONFIDENCE IS LOW CURRENTLY FOR ANY
STORMS TO MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THE ACTIVE PATTERN
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE RIDGE PATTERN REMAINING DOMINANT AND LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR FORCING, CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE. SHOULD SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOP, ALL MODES CAN BE POSSIBLE WITH FLASH FLOODING A
POSSIBILITY FOR THOSE WHO GET MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY COULD HAVE HIGHS IN THE 80S BOTH DAYS BEFORE WARMING INTO
THE LOW 90S. OVERNIGHT LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND THE 50S
TO MID 60S.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1029 AM MDT SUN JUL 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR EACH TERMINAL. WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A BOUNDARY
SAGS INTO THE AREA. ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AM FORECASTING A CUMULUS
FIELD TO DEVELOP AROUND 20Z ALONG WITH A 5-10% CHANCE OF
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH 02Z.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE STORMS DEVELOPING DUE TO THE LACK OF
FORCING AND THE LIMITED SPATIAL NATURE OF ANY CONVECTION
PRECLUDES ME FROM INTRODUCING INTO THE TAF. IF THIS STARTS TO
LOOK MORE PROBABLE OF OCCURRING OVER THEN AN AMD WILL BE
WARRANTED. A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST TO OCCUR
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT KGLD AS A
WEAK LLJ DEVELOPS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...TRIGG
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