969
FXUS63 KGLD 171642
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S FRIDAY, CONTINUALLY WARMING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOW 100S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE DAILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 906 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS ENDED RESULTING IN ALLOWANCE
OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ON TIME. SOME LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF
VISIBILITY LESS THAN ONE MILE STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 10AM MT
OR 11AM CT HOWEVER. CONTINUE TO REMAIN AWARE FOR SUDDEN REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY IF TRAVELING THIS MORNING.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST
AS AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTH. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE, BUT THE
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS COMBINED WITH MOIST AIR OVER THE AREA IS
FORECAST TO KEEP CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA. FOG SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AS THE MORNING GOES ON. THERE COULD BE PATCHES OF DENSE FOG,
BUT THE CURRENT LOW LEVEL CLOUD DECK MIGHT KEEP US JUST INSULATED
ENOUGH THAT THE NEAR SURFACE AIR CAN'T FULLY SATURATE. STILL,
WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF MOST OF THE AREA HAD 1-4 MILE VISIBILITY IN
FOG.
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS, THE FOG SHOULD SLOWLY BURN OFF AS SOME SUN
POKES THROUGH THE CLOUDS AND WE HEAT UP A BIT. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO NOT WARM TOO MUCH AS THE SLIGHTLY COLDER AIR MASS
COMBINED WITH THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP KEEP US IN THE 70S. THOSE
WHO SEE THE CLOUD COVER BREAK APART COULD WARM TO AROUND 80. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE HIGH PUSHES THROUGH THE
AREA, GENERALLY AROUND 10-15 MPH. THOUGH WITH LOW PRESSURE TRYING TO
BUILD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AGAIN, SPEEDS COULD BE CLOSER TO 20 MPH
FOR COUNTIES ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER.
THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT, THERE MIGHT BE A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE
FROM THE FRONT RANGE INTO EASTERN COLORADO, BUT CHANCES ARE ONLY
AROUND 20% WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE LINGERING IN/NEAR THE AREA. MOST
OF THE AREA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CLOUD COVERED AND COULD SEE SOME
PATCHES OF FOG AGAIN. HOWEVER, WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE, SOME DRIER AIR MAY BE ABLE TO PUSH IN FORM
THE WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING SKIES, AGAIN FOR THOSE COUNTIES
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER. WITH THIS, LOWS IN THE WEST COULD DROP
INTO THE 50S, WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA IS IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 101 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2025
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CONUS AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST.
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL WHICH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT
DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE AREA.
FOR FRIDAY SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WE DO HAVE SOME
SUPPORT FROM A WEAK 700MB WAVE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 FOR SOME
STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE STORMS. AT THIS TIME THE FAVORED DAY FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO BE ON SATURDAY AS A MORE POTENT WAVE LOOKS
TO MOVE OFF OF THE ROCKIES. MOISTURE WILL AGAIN BE ON THE INCREASE
AS EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS. DISCREPANCIES STILL LIE WITH THE
AMOUNT CAPE AND WIND SHEAR AVAILABLE BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A POSSIBLE MORE IMPACTFUL DAY IF EVERYTHING CAN ALIGN. ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO DO SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF RAINFALL ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-70 DURING THAT TIMEFRAME WHICH IS FURTHER
INCREASING MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING. A SEMI STAGNATE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH ANOTHER THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
A PATTERN CHANCE THEN FINALLY BEGINS TO PRESENT ITSELF TO START THE
NEW WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTH EXPANDS INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS SENDING THE JET STREAM FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THIS
APPEARS TO BRING AN END TO THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
THE CAVEAT OF IF THE HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FURTHER EAST THEN STILL
MAY HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME MONSOONAL DISTURBANCES TO
IMPACT WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH THE HOTTEST BEING MONDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S. MAY NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON SOME POTENTIAL HEAT PRODUCTS AS MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO REMAIN
IN PLACE WITH SOME HEAT INDICES HAVING THE POTENTIAL TO REACH 105
ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF
THE DAY BEFORE BREAKING AROUND MCK NEAR 22Z AND GLD AROUND 20Z.
A RETURN OF STRATUS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR AGAIN TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH
IT MAY BE NOT AS LONG LIVED AT GLD AS IT IS AT MCK WINDS BECOME
MORE SSW ENDING THE THREAT AS SOME DRIER AIR BEGINS TO PUSH IN.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...TRIGG
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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