670
FXUS63 KGLD 181113
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
513 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S TODAY, CONTINUALLY WARMING
INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOW 100S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE DAILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
SATURDAY LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1227 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
THIS MORNING, STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 15Z. WE COULD SEE SOME PATCHY TO LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH THIS
MORNING AS WELL. MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE FOG WILL BE ALONG AND EAST
OF US 83 AS WINDS WITH MORE OF AN WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL
PROMOTE UPSLOPE FLOW. FOG IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NO LATER THAN 15Z,
TOO. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME 500 MB VORTICITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS MORNING, WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME DRIZZLE OR
LIGHT SHOWERS BEFORE 15Z.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TODAY ONCE THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT. HIGH LOOK
TO BE IN THE MID 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10-
15 KTS, ALTHOUGH SOME GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY
ALLOW SOME SHOWERS OR ISOLATED STORMS TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
CWA. CONFIDENCE IN THIS PRECIPITATION IS ONLY AROUND 20-25%. AROUND
THE SAME TIME FRAME, AN 850 MB LOW WILL BE EJECTING OFF THE ROCKIES
AND COULD SPARK A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ACROSS YUMA COUNTY. THE SPC
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR WIND AND HAIL ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TODAY
IS COVERING THE POTENTIAL IF THE LOW MOVES THROUGH SOONER THAN
EXPECTED AND IS ABLE TO FIRE STORMS CLOSER TO MCCOOK, NE. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY MORE SUPPORTIVE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IF
THIS OCCURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS LESS THAN 5%.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO CONCLUDE AROUND 6-9Z AND LOWS WILL COOL INTO
THE 60S TONIGHT. THERE IS A RETURN CHANCE OF STRATUS AND FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT, ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1233 PM MDT THU JUL 17 2025
SOME SUBTLE DIFFLUENCE IN THE 500MB LEVEL AND BEING NEAR THE RIGHT
EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK MAY BE ENOUGH LIFT FOR SOME MORNING
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO TAKE FORM. WILL ADD IN SOME SILENT POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
POTENTIAL FOR NOW BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE THERE TO
INTRODUCE INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. A DEVELOPING SURFACE
LOW ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE DEVELOPING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE EXACT
POSITIONING OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DICTATE HOW
WARM IT GETS AND THE COVERAGE/LOCATION OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
DAY. A FURTHER NORTH LOW WILL LEAD TO WARMER TEMPERATURES AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS INTO NEBRASKA, SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHORTWAVE HOWEVER BUT MAY BE MORE
LIMITED BUT WOULD FAVOR WIND AND HAIL. IF THE LOW STAYS FURTHER
SOUTH THEN HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WILL BE MORE LIKELY AND
INCREASE SBCAPE WHICH POTENTIALLY MAY LEAD TO AN ALL HAZARDS
POSSIBLE DAY. ALL GUIDANCES SHOWS STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WHICH
SUPPORTS SPLITTING CELLS. ENOUGH WIND SHEAR SHOULD BE IN PLACE
FOR SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE GROWING UPSCALE INTO A CLUSTER.
WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN PLACE CLOUD COVER COULD PLAY A
ROLE INTO HOW EVERYTHING PANS OUT AS WELL SO THERE STILL DOES
REMAIN QUITE A BIT OF VARIATION INTO THE DAY.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE PATTERN REMAINS ROUGHLY THE SAME WITH PERHAPS
SOME SLIGHT NORTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG
STORY FOR NEXT WEEK MAY BE THE WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE DOES APPEAR
HOWEVER TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDICES
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 NEARING 105 DEGREES POTENTIALLY FOR
MULTIPLE DAYS. DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST THE MAIN HIGH DOES SET UP
WILL ALSO DICTATE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AS WELL AS MONSOONAL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FEED UP INTO THE ROCKIES.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 509 AM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE EAST OF THE KS/CO STATE LINE. MORNING
WEB CAMERAS CONFIRMING THAT KGLD RIGHT ON THE EDGE OF LOW CLOUD
BANK, WITH CIGS LIKELY OSCILLATING BETWEEN IFR AND VFR UNTIL
AFTER 13Z WHEN SFC HEATING WILL HELP DISSIPATE CLOUDS ALONG
EDGE OF ADVECTING MOISTURE. MCK WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE STRATUS
LONGER, WITH SOME SUPPORT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. ONCE STRATUS DISSIPATES, EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL FROM 18Z ONWARD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JRM
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page