409
FXUS63 KGLD 191148
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
548 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TWO ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS LOOK TO START THIS
AFTERNOON AND LAST INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF THE NIGHT. ALL
HAZARDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE 90S TODAY, CONTINUALLY WARMING INTO
NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MAY REACH THE LOW 100S BY
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS HEAT INDICES APPROACH 105 DEGREES.
- FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A
OAKLEY TO BENKELMAN LINE
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE DAILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH
SATURDAY LOOKING MOST FAVORABLE AT THIS TIME WITH HAIL AND
WIND THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 111 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM OAKLEY TO BENKELMAN. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR WITH
THE FOG IN THIS AREA WILL BE TEMPERATURES REMAINING TOO HIGH THAT
SATURATION DOES NOT OCCUR. THE COUNTIES THAT KS 27 RUNS THOUGH LOOK
TO GET AROUND 95+% RH VALUES, BUT A SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA LOOKS TO BRING IN SOME LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL LESSEN
THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG. ON TOP OF THAT, THE SURFACE LOW WILL LESSEN
OR ALTOGETHER PREVENT A BOUNDARY INVERSION FROM FORMING, ALSO
LESSENING THE POTENTIAL FOR AND SEVERITY OF FOG.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY BREAKING 100 DEGREES. HEAT INDICES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM UP TO 102, POSING A MILD HEAT RISK.
WE ARE EXPECTING A SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, CAUSING A WAVE OF STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA. WE ALSO EXPECT THE DRYLINE TO FIRE OFF SOME STORMS BEFORE THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. THE DRYLINE STORMS LOOK TO START STORMS AROUND
20-22Z, BUT MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS 18Z. WE EXPECT THIS TO START
AS A COUPLE OF ISOLATED CELLS AROUND THE CHEYENNE WELLS TO
GOODLAND AREA AND PROGRESS NORTHEAST. THE DRYLINE MAY (10-15%
CHANCE) FIRE OFF ADDITIONAL STORMS AS FAR NORTH AS DUNDY COUNTY
OR FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CWA EXTENDS. ALTERNATIVELY, IF A
SURFACE LOW EJECTS OFF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN THE MIDDAY AND
SETS UP A STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG HIGHWAY 24 ACROSS THE CWA,
STORMS WILL LIKELY FIRE OFF OF THIS IN PLACE OF THE DRYLINE.
THIS WOULD GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE AT A FEW LANDSPOUTS FORMING;
ON THE CONDITION THIS SCENARIO PLAYS OUT, THERE IS A 5% CHANCE
OF A BRIEF LANDSPOUT OCCURRING. THERE IS A 10% CHANCE THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY SCENARIO OCCURS. GENERAL HAZARDS FROM THE
FIRST WAVE OF STORMS WILL BE 1.5-2 INCH HAIL, BUT MAXIMUM HAIL
SIZE COULD REACH 3 INCHES. WINDS GENERALLY LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND
THE 45- 60 MPH RANGE, HOWEVER A WET MICROBURST IS A NOTABLE
CONCERN. WITH A WET MICROBURST, WE COULD SEE UP TO 80 MPH WINDS.
EVEN THOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS WOULD BE WITH A WET MICROBURST,
ONCE THE WIND OUTRUNS THE MOISTURE, BLOWING DUST COULD BE A
CONCERN. THE THREAT FOR A SUPERCELL TORNADO IS VERY LOW WITH
THIS WAVE, AND THE LANDSPOUT THREAT MENTIONED ABOVE IS THE
GREATER TORNADIC CONCERN. SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS
INCLUDE MUCAPE RANGING FROM 2,500-3,750 J/KG, EBWD SHEAR 40+
KTS, MLLCL AROUND 2,250 M, MICROBURST COMPOSITE OF 9, PWATS
1.6-1.75 INCHES, 850-500 MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM, AND
DCAPE RANGING FROM 1,400-1,800 J/KG.
THE SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PRODUCE A SECOND, TRAILING WAVE OF STORMS,
LIKELY STARTING AROUND 22-0Z. THESE STORMS LOOK TO BE MORE CLOSELY
CLUSTERED TOGETHER, AND MAY FORM A QLCS BY 1-3Z AS THE STORMS
PROGRESS TO THE EAST. IF THE STORMS FORM INTO A QLCS, THE LIKELIHOOD
OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL GREATLY INCREASE VERSUS A CLUSTER OF
COMPETING SUPERCELLS. HAIL WOULD LIKELY BE AROUND THE 1-1.5 INCH
MARK, BUT SOME STONES AROUND 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS AROUND
55-70 MPH WOULD BE MORE COMMON, BUT HIGHER WINDS FROM A BOWING
SEGMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE SHEAR PROFILE GETS MESSY WITH THE
SECOND WAVE, BEING MODIFIED FROM THE FIRST WAVE, BUT 0-3 KM SHEAR IS
STILL AROUND 30 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST, MEANING WE CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR TWO QUICK QLCS SPIN UPS. THIS SECOND ROUND
OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THE MOST INTENSE ALONG AND NORTH OF US 36,
WITH THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMING MORE SUPPORTIVE FARTHER NORTH.
THERE IS SOME CONCERN WITH TRAINING, HIGH PRECIPITATION STORMS
CAUSING FLASH FLOODING, PRIMARILY IN OUR NEBRASKA COUNTIES.
CAMS ARE CURRENTLY ESTIMATING UP TO 3 INCHES OF QPF IN ISOLATED
SPOTS COMING DOWN IN LESS THAN 3 HOURS. WITH THE CURRENT CAM RUNS,
DUNDY COUNTY LOOKS TO BE THE PRIME TARGET FOR THIS RAIN.
CURRENT CONFIDENCE IN NUISANCE FLOODING IS ABOUT 40%, CONFIDENCE IN
FLASH FLOODING IS ABOUT 20%.
THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS TO END AROUND 6Z WITH A FEW LINGERING STORMS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 9Z. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL INTO THE 60S
TO LOW 70S, WARMEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. STRATUS LOOKS TO FOLLOW THE
STORMS, ESPECIALLY EAST OF KS 25, AND WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
FAIRLY WARM OVERNIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI JUL 18 2025
SUNDAY, IS FORECAST TO BE SYNOPTICALLY SIMILAR TO SATURDAY BUT
A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS BEGINS TO
EXPAND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS LEADS TO ME TO THINK THAT
ANY SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL MAY BE MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
IN NATURE DUE TO SUBSIDENCE BEING CLOSER TO THE AREA. WIND
SHEAR IS NOT AS STRONG AS SATURDAY EITHER BUT MOISTURE MAY STILL
BE PLENTIFUL. NAM SOUNDINGS SHOW SATURATION FROM 700MB TO
AROUND 250MB SO CIRRUS AGAIN MAY BE IN PLAY AGAIN AS WELL. AT
THIS TIME HAIL INITIALLY, PERHAPS ACCUMULATING WOULD BE IN PLAY
ALONG WITH DOWNBURST POTENTIAL AS WE HAVE WEAK FLOW IN GENERAL.
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD BE SLOW MOVING DUE TO THE WEAK
FLOW.
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A
LITTLE MORE MURKY AT THIS TIME. THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
EXPAND TO THE NORTH BUT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST WILL
IT EXPAND. GEFS/GFS SUGGESTS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO
COLORADO WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD
SUBSIDENCE. THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HOWEVER KEEP OUT OF
COLORADO AND CONTINUE THE MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT
STORMS RIDING UP AND AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE. AT THIS TIME I FEEL
THE ECMWF IS MORE PLAUSIBLE AS ITS HANDLING THE FORECASTED
HUMIDITY THE BEST AND THE MONSOONAL PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO
HELP KEEP THE HIGH SHUNTED FURTHER TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE THE BIGGEST STORY
HOWEVER AS A VERY STRONG SIGNAL CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THIS UPCOMING STRETCH OF HEAT VERSUS WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS IS THAT
WE WILL HAVE MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 WITH POTENTIAL FOR 105 FURTHER TO THE EAST. THE HEAT
DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BE ENTRENCHED IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 541 AM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
4SM-7SM VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
AREA DUE TO SMALL POCKETS OF FOG. THIS IS LIKELY THE WORST
CONDITIONS WILL GET AS IT APPEARS VERY SHALLOW AND WILL
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY ONCE SURFACE HEATING STARTS. OTHERWISE OTHER
CONCERN WILL BE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LEANED TOWARDS THE HREF ENSEMBLE
TIMING FOR INITIATION WHICH IS SLIGHTLY LATER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN ON EXACT TIMING AND IMPACT AT
EACH TERMINAL AT THIS POINT, BUT SHOULD STORMS MOVE OVER ANY TAF
SITE, EXPECT HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...JRM
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