745
FXUS63 KGLD 201124
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S AGAIN TODAY,
CONTINUALLY WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
THE LOW 100S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS HEAT INDICES APPROACH 105
DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE DAILY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 134 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IS FORECAST TO SEE CLOUD
COVER SLOWLY CLEAR AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO
THE EAST. THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO STAY FAIRLY
MOIST, SO SOME FOG COULD DEVELOP. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO TRY AND HAVE
MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH COULD HELP LIMIT FOG, BUT THE
OVERALL LOW SPEEDS MAY ALLOW A FEW PATCHES TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY, THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE
FAIRLY STAGNATE WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE AREA AND SOME
SPLIT/SOUTHWEST FLOW JUST UPSTREAM. FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS, THIS IS
FORECAST TO ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S.
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, A FEW STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP WITH CAPE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND
TEMPERATURES NEARING CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
FORCING IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE WEAK, BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
A LOW FROM THE SURFACE TO ABOUT 700MB MAY BE ABLE TO CREATE SOME
WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES, ALLOWING FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE IF THE
LOW DOES NOT OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FAIRLY
HIGH WITH ABOUT 30-45 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR FORECAST. THE MAIN
PROBLEM WITH IT IS THAT THERE COULD BE A SHARP CUTOFF WITH WINDS IN
THE LOW LEVEL FROM THE SOUTHEAST WHILE WINDS JUST ABOVE IN THE MID
LEVELS COULD BE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY CAUSE STORMS TO SPLIT
AND GUST OUT INSTEAD OF BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED. WITH THIS,
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MORE SPORADIC STORMS WITH OCCASIONAL
INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS. CURRENTLY HAVE FORECASTS OF
UP TO 1.5" HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, THOUGH A MORE ORGANIZED
AND LONG LIVED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL OF 2-3". THE FAVORED AREA
LOOKS TO GENERALLY BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 83, THOUGH THE WHOLE AREA HAS
A CHANCE.
WITH THE OVERALL LACK OF SYNOPTIC FORCING, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO
FIZZLE RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND END BY MIDNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STORMS THAT CAN FORM OFF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES,
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS CURRENTLY UN-OPTIMISTIC. SKIES ARE FORECAST TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO COOL TO NEAR DEWPOINT IN THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT SAT JUL 19 2025
STORM POTENTIAL MONDAY AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IS A
LITTLE MORE MURKY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING
TO EXPAND TO THE NORTH BUT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST IT
GOES. GFS SUGGESTS THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND BACK INTO COLORADO
WHICH WOULD LIMIT STORM POTENTIAL DUE TO WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE. THE
ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES HOWEVER KEEP OUT OF COLORADO AND CONTINUE
THE MONSOONAL FLOW WHICH WOULD STILL SUPPORT STORMS RIDING UP AND
AROUND THE HIGH PRESSURE. AT THIS TIME I FEEL THE ECMWF IS MORE
PLAUSIBLE AS ITS HANDLING THE FORECASTED HUMIDITY THE BEST AND THE
MONSOONAL PATTERN MAY BE ENOUGH TO HELP KEEP THE HIGH SHUNTED
FURTHER TO THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE THE BIGGEST STORY
HOWEVER AS A VERY STRONG SIGNAL CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THIS UPCOMING STRETCH OF HEAT VERSUS WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS IS THAT
WE WILL HAVE MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDICES
AROUND 100 WITH POTENTIAL FOR 105 IN OUR FARTHEST EAST COUNTIES. THE
HEAT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE AS THE HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS
TO BE ENTRENCHED IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 511 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS REGION
REMAINS ON PERIPHERY OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT AND ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING,
WILL LIKELY SEE LITTLE IF ANY OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED, BUT WITH
MINIMAL COVERAGE EXPECTED CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT
EITHER TERMINAL LOCATION.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KMK/TRIGG
AVIATION...JRM
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