595
FXUS63 KGLD 202003
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
203 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 90S AGAIN TODAY,
CONTINUALLY WARMING INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES MAY REACH
THE LOW 100S BY TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AS HEAT INDICES APPROACH 105
DEGREES.
- HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR RED WILLOW, DECATUR, NORTON,
SHERIDAN, GRAHAM, AND GOVE COUNTIES MONDAY FROM 12 PM TO 8 PM
CDT DUE TO HEAT INDICES UP TO 105 DEGREES.
- CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE DAILY THROUGH THE
WEEK. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON-EVENING WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL AS
THE MAIN THREATS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
ANOTHER DAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHILE SHORTWAVES TRAVEL OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CORE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGIONS
TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
UPGRADED THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83 TO
A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-40 KTS AND AROUND 20
KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR. WE HAVE AMPLE CAPE TO WORK WITH TODAY WITH
SURFACE BASED VALUES UP TO 3,000 J/KG AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO
2,500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO REMAINS HIGH FOR THE AREA AROUND
1.3-1.5". GENERAL FORCING DOES NOT REMAIN STRONG TODAY GIVEN THE
PATTERN; HOWEVER, THERE ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES THAT COULD SET UP
ALONG AND WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO COLBY TO TRENTON LINE. THESE
CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL ALLOW THE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE. A BIG
QUESTION FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL IS HOW THE WINDS LOOK IN SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. MAJORITY SHOW GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO ~700 MB WITH A SHARP DIRECTION CHANGE
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST. HODOGRAPHS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORING SPLITTING
STORMS THAT COULD GUST OUT BEFORE THEY BECOME STRONGLY ORGANIZED. WE
COULD SEE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 20-22Z OVER EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND CONTINUE THROUGH ~12 AM MDT/1 PM CDT TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE FOR TODAY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE STORMS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING, BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL COULD BE CONFINED TO
THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL UP
TO 1.5" AND POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 70
MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
GOOD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.
TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE HOT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER KANSAS, SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES HELPING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN A SIMILAR AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH DETERMINING IF STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OR
CLUSTERED IN NATURE. THE NAMNEST SEEMS TO BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
COLORADO. THE HRRR FAVORS MORE OF A CLUSTER MODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS GOOD WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1,500+
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO
40 KTS. THE WIND PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS IS ALSO A BIT IMPROVED
WITH A VEERING PROFILE AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE,
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE HAVING SIMILAR PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAT TOMORROW SHOULD HELP DRY THE
GROUND AND ALLOW ANY HEAVY RAIN TO ABSORB A BIT. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
ANY STORM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 12 AM (MIDNIGHT) MDT. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS THROUGH 4 AM MDT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F POSSIBLE FOR THOSE ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM
(NOON) TO 8 PM CDT FOR RED WILLOW, DECATUR, NORTON, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM
AND GOVE COUNTIES DUE TO THE HEAT INDICES OVER THERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HEAT WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON-EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
A CUT-OFF LOW TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
MIDWEEK BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE THE BIGGEST STORY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING
STRETCH OF HEAT VERSUS WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS IS THAT WE WILL HAVE
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 105 IN OUR FARTHEST EAST COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF THE 100S FOR OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WITH AREA-WIDE 60S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER KMCK AND KGLD TERMINALS
THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD AS THE REGION SITS UNDER AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH ~00Z BEFORE
WINDS START TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY AT 5-10 KTS THROUGH ~06Z.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT VARIABLY AGAIN OVERNIGHT RANGING FROM
CALM TO 5 KTS. KGLD HAS POTENTIAL PRIMARILY BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z
TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 40% FOR ANY IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINAL. IF ANYTHING DOES MOVE OVER, BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH HAZARDS OF WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH AND HAIL TO 1.5
INCHES.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR NEZ081.
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KMK
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