536
FXUS63 KGLD 210902
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
302 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND PATCHY MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
100S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS CHANCES TODAY WITH
LOCALIZED RISKS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
WEAKENING MCV FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WILL MOVE THROUGH
NORTHWEST KANSAS THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
DISSIPATING. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE MCCOOK AREA AROUND
SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN OR
ENVIRONMENT TODAY COMPARED TO SUNDAY. IT IS STILL VERY MOIST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH NO CHANGE IN PWATS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL ROTATE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
PROVIDING WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT. CAMS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON
WHERE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE BUT ALL OF THEM SHOWING SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, GENERALLY FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES TAKE OVER. STORM MOTIONS
CONTINUE VERY SLOW, EVEN SLOWER COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUGGESTS LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OTHER MAIN
HAZARD WITH STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
WET MICROBURSTS, AGAIN LOCALIZED IN NATURE. FINALLY,
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES
APPROACHING THE LOWER TO MID 100S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
ANOTHER DAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHILE SHORTWAVES TRAVEL OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CORE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGIONS
TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
UPGRADED THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83 TO
A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-40 KTS AND AROUND 20
KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR. WE HAVE AMPLE CAPE TO WORK WITH TODAY WITH
SURFACE BASED VALUES UP TO 3,000 J/KG AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO
2,500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO REMAINS HIGH FOR THE AREA AROUND
1.3-1.5". GENERAL FORCING DOES NOT REMAIN STRONG TODAY GIVEN THE
PATTERN; HOWEVER, THERE ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES THAT COULD SET UP
ALONG AND WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO COLBY TO TRENTON LINE. THESE
CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL ALLOW THE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE. A BIG
QUESTION FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL IS HOW THE WINDS LOOK IN SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. MAJORITY SHOW GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO ~700 MB WITH A SHARP DIRECTION CHANGE
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST. HODOGRAPHS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORING SPLITTING
STORMS THAT COULD GUST OUT BEFORE THEY BECOME STRONGLY ORGANIZED. WE
COULD SEE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 20-22Z OVER EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND CONTINUE THROUGH ~12 AM MDT/1 PM CDT TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE FOR TODAY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE STORMS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING, BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL COULD BE CONFINED TO
THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL UP
TO 1.5" AND POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 70
MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
GOOD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.
TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE HOT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER KANSAS, SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES HELPING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN A SIMILAR AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH DETERMINING IF STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OR
CLUSTERED IN NATURE. THE NAMNEST SEEMS TO BE THE MOST BULLISH WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO IMPACT NORTHWEST KANSAS AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A
CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE IN
COLORADO. THE HRRR FAVORS MORE OF A CLUSTER MODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY LOOKS GOOD WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1,500+
J/KG DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO
40 KTS. THE WIND PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS IS ALSO A BIT IMPROVED
WITH A VEERING PROFILE AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE,
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE HAVING SIMILAR PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAT TOMORROW SHOULD HELP DRY THE
GROUND AND ALLOW ANY HEAVY RAIN TO ABSORB A BIT. THE MAIN WINDOW FOR
ANY STORM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 12 AM (MIDNIGHT) MDT. THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS THROUGH 4 AM MDT
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S
TOMORROW WITH HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F POSSIBLE FOR THOSE ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM
(NOON) TO 8 PM CDT FOR RED WILLOW, DECATUR, NORTON, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM
AND GOVE COUNTIES DUE TO THE HEAT INDICES OVER THERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HEAT WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON-EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
A CUT-OFF LOW TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
MIDWEEK BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE THE BIGGEST STORY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING
STRETCH OF HEAT VERSUS WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS IS THAT WE WILL HAVE
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 105 IN OUR FARTHEST EAST COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF THE 100S FOR OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WITH AREA-WIDE 60S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
FOR KGLD... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD,
THOUGH THE INITIAL CONCERN IS FOR SOME STORMS THAT WERE JUST
SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL AS OF 05Z. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN
TRYING TO MOVE EAST NEAR/INTO THE TERMINAL, THOUGH THEY ARE
STARTING TO GUST OUT WHICH MEANS THEY COULD FAIL TO HOLD
TOGETHER AND GET TO THE TERMINAL. WILL MONITOR CLOSELY, BUT HAVE
LEFT STORMS OUT FOR NOW. STORMS MAY ALSO TRY AND MOVE NEAR THE
TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-03Z. SIMILAR TO TODAY, STORMS COULD FORM
WEST OF THE TERMINAL AND TRY TO MOVE EAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FAVORS MORE ISOLATED STORMS WHICH WOULD LIMIT THE CHANCE THEY
MAKE IT TO THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH SHORT OF ANY FLUCTUATIONS FROM OUTFLOWS IN THE AREA.
FOR KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD AROUND OR BELOW 10 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
STORMS BETWEEN 00-06Z AS POP UP STORMS FORM WEST AND SOUTH OF
THE TERMINAL AND TRY TO MOVE NORTHEAST. CURRENTLY, CHANCES ARE
BELOW 30% SO HAVE LEFT THE STORM MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ003-004-015-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ081.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page