537
FXUS63 KGLD 211726
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1126 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA AND PATCHY MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
100S EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS CHANCES TODAY WITH
LOCALIZED RISKS FOR FLASH FLOODING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
- VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING, BUT A
FEW CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT IN FAR
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE
EAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AN THEN MOVING NORTHEAST INTO
NORTHWEST KS TONIGHT WHICH IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST. SOME,
HOWEVER ARE SHOWING ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FROM EAST CENTRAL CO
TO WEST CENTRAL KS FROM GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES...AND TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THIS AREA FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
ANOTHER DAY WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LEE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS WHILE SHORTWAVES TRAVEL OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE CORE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE PANHANDLE REGIONS
TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH NORTH. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
UPGRADED THOSE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF US HIGHWAY 83 TO
A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ENVIRONMENT SEEMS
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 25-40 KTS AND AROUND 20
KTS OF 0-3 KM SHEAR. WE HAVE AMPLE CAPE TO WORK WITH TODAY WITH
SURFACE BASED VALUES UP TO 3,000 J/KG AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE UP TO
2,500 J/KG. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO REMAINS HIGH FOR THE AREA AROUND
1.3-1.5". GENERAL FORCING DOES NOT REMAIN STRONG TODAY GIVEN THE
PATTERN; HOWEVER, THERE ARE WEAK CONVERGENCE ZONES THAT COULD SET UP
ALONG AND WEST OF A TRIBUNE TO COLBY TO TRENTON LINE. THESE
CONVERGENCE ZONES WILL ALLOW THE SCATTERED STORM COVERAGE. A BIG
QUESTION FOR THE STORM POTENTIAL IS HOW THE WINDS LOOK IN SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS. MAJORITY SHOW GENERALLY WEAK
FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TO ~700 MB WITH A SHARP DIRECTION CHANGE
TO BE OUT OF THE WEST. HODOGRAPHS ARE ONCE AGAIN FAVORING SPLITTING
STORMS THAT COULD GUST OUT BEFORE THEY BECOME STRONGLY ORGANIZED. WE
COULD SEE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND 20-22Z OVER EAST-CENTRAL
COLORADO AND CONTINUE THROUGH ~12 AM MDT/1 PM CDT TONIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW-MODERATE FOR TODAY WHEN IT COMES TO SEVERE STORMS
ACTUALLY OCCURRING, BUT THE BEST POTENTIAL COULD BE CONFINED TO
THOSE COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. LARGE HAIL UP
TO 1.5" AND POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH GUSTS TO 70
MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR ANY STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING IF STORMS MOVE OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED
GOOD RAINFALL LAST NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL
INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.
TOMORROW IS GOING TO BE HOT, ESPECIALLY FOR OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER KANSAS, SOUTHERN
NEBRASKA, AND EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES HELPING TO PROVIDE ANOTHER CONVERGENCE ZONE
IN A SIMILAR AREA AS THIS AFTERNOON. CAM GUIDANCE IS A BIT ALL OVER
THE PLACE WITH DETERMINING IF STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OR
CLUSTERED IN NATURE. THE NAABOUT MID AFTERNOONMNEST SEEMS TO BE
THE MOST BULLISH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS TO
IMPACT NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING
THE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A CLUSTER OF STORMS THAT MOVES INTO
THE AREA FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE IN COLORADO. THE HRRR FAVORS
MORE OF A CLUSTER MODE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
INSTABILITY LOOKS GOOD WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1,500+ J/KG DEPENDING
ON WHICH MODEL YOU LOOK AT AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR UP TO 40 KTS.
THE WIND PROFILE IN THE SOUNDINGS IS ALSO A BIT IMPROVED WITH A
VEERING PROFILE AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS. SHOULD STORMS FIRE,
HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE. DESPITE HAVING SIMILAR PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AS THE LAST FEW DAYS, THE HEAT TOMORROW SHOULD HELP
DRY THE GROUND AND ALLOW ANY HEAVY RAIN TO ABSORB A BIT. THE
MAIN WINDOW FOR ANY STORM ACTIVITY IS BETWEEN 2 PM AND 12 AM
(MIDNIGHT) MDT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS THROUGH 4 AM MDT HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S TOMORROW WITH HEAT
INDICES UP TO 105F POSSIBLE FOR THOSE ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY
83. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 12 PM (NOON) TO 8 PM
CDT FOR RED WILLOW, DECATUR, NORTON, SHERIDAN, GRAHAM AND GOVE
COUNTIES DUE TO THE HEAT INDICES OVER THERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S TOMORROW NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SUN JUL 20 2025
THE CURRENT PATTERN OF HEAT WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON-EVENING
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. WITH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOWING POTENTIAL FOR
A CUT-OFF LOW TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS
MIDWEEK BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. MOST SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER
COLORADO AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
HOURS.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD MAY BE THE BIGGEST STORY.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THIS UPCOMING
STRETCH OF HEAT VERSUS WHAT TYPICALLY OCCURS IS THAT WE WILL HAVE
MOISTURE IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 WITH
POTENTIAL FOR 105 IN OUR FARTHEST EAST COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND, WE COULD SEE A RETURN OF THE 100S FOR OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S,
WITH AREA-WIDE 60S WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY NIGHTS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2025
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMCK AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING, DUE
TO PATCHY FOG AND SOME LOW STRATUS. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THIS EVENING. WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM
IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL, EXPECT BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
LATE TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS BECOME LESS FAVORABLE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-
016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...KMK
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...AUTEN
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