508
FXUS63 KGLD 222321
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
521 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK WITH MODERATE HEAT RISK THROUGH TOMORROW.
- SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT IN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES OF KANSAS AND
NEBRASKA WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE.
- VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AREA ALONG THE NW KS AND NE CO BORDER, SKIES
ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
NORTHEASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON, LIKELY AFTER 3 PM, AND THEN MOVE
EAST TO NORTHEAST INTO THE REST OF NORTHEAST CO AND NORTHWEST
KS. MONITORING AN AREA NORTHWEST OF ST FRANCIS, BUT BELIEVE THE
MAIN AREA WILL BE WEST OF THE CWA TO START AND THEN MOVE INTO
THE CWA AFTER 4-5PM. HOT AND HUMID WX WILL CONTINUE AS WELL.
CURRENT FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD, BUT DID MAKE SOME CHANGES TO
DELAY POPS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA, OTHERWISE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL KICK OFF WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ALONG
THE ROCKIES AND JUST TO THE EAST IN EASTERN CO THIS AFTERNOON.
THESE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST TO NORTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. FORECASTED SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING AN INVERTED
V LOOK, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE A DAMAGING
WIND POTENTIAL WITH THESE STORMS. BASED ON SATELLITE LOOPS,
STORMS MAY BE STATIONARY FOR A TIME, BUT MODELS CONTINUE TO
FORECAST STORMS MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THIS EVENING. SPC'S
MARGINAL RISK FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 IN KS AND NE
CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD FORECAST FOR NORTHWESTERN KS AND EAST
CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHWEST NE. THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS LIKE THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, SO HIGHEST POPS WILL
BE IN THE WEST AND LOWER POPS WILL BE EAST OF HIGHWAY 25.
WEDNESDAY FORECAST WILL BE DIFFERENT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LAST AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. WITH THE
ABNORMALLY HIGH PWS AND DEWPOINTS, THESE STORMS COULD BE
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL BEING
POSSIBLE WITH THE SLOWER MOVING STORMS. LIKE TUE EVENING,
DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE A THREAT. SPC CURRENTLY DOES NOT
HAVE OUR AREA IN AN OUTLOOK TOMORROW, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF THAT CHANGES LATER TONIGHT WITH THE NEW DAY 1 OUTLOOK.
TONIGHT'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWER 70S IN THE EAST.
TOMORROW'S HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA, BUT DEFINITELY LOWER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD BRING IN DRIER DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY, BUT THAT WILL
LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE EVENING.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 223 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
STORMS WILL LINGER AGAIN WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP THURSDAY MORNING, ANOTHER SHOT OF STORMS WILL OCCUR THUR
AFTERNOON AND THUR NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO THE AREA
FOR FRIDAY, THE WEEKEND, AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE THE TRI-STATE AREA, BUT ALSO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 80S ON THURSDAY, HIGHS IN
THE 90S AND 100S ARE EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO OVER 100 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 518 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2025
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. KGLD MAY HAVE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SITE, BUT NOT OVER THE SITE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. KMCK SHOULD REMAIN STORM FREE. AM EXPECTING THE
STORMS CURRENTLY WELL TO THE SOUTH TO END AS THEY MOVE NORTH
INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...AUTEN
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...JTL
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