432
FXUS63 KGLD 091633
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1033 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
DURING THE EVENING, MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL, AND MAYBE A TORNADO. ADDITIONAL REDEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND.
- ADDITIONAL STORMS AND SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE UPPER LOW SPINNING AROUND THE MT/ND
AND CANADA. THIS HAS HELPED CREATE SOME LINES OF STORMS ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR
SHOWING BANDS EXTENDING FROM CHEYENNE COUNTY IN KANSAS, ALL THE WAY
INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. THIS HAS KEPT STORMS DEVELOPING A LITTLE
LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, THOUGH THANKFULLY WITH JUST SMALL HAIL. THIS
SETUP MAY CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STORMS UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER SUNRISE,
ESPECIALLY WITH A REINFORCING TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
ONCE THE SUN RISES AND WE BEGIN TO HEAT UP, LINGER STORMS AND CLOUDS
SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO
INFLUENCE THE AREA AND NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE,
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE COOLER IN THE 80S AND LOW 90S.
STARTING IN THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AROUND 3 PM MT, WE WILL HAVE
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS. WITH THE DEWPOINT RECOVERY THAT HAS
OCCURRED, THE AREA SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
STORMS. WITH THAT, THERE ARE 3 POSSIBLE AREAS OF FORCING AND STORM
INITIATION. THE FIRST IS THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PLAINS. AS IT HAS DONE DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, IT MAY BE ABLE TO DEVELOP
SOME BANDS OF STORMS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THESE STORMS
WOULD LIKELY START OUTSIDE OF THE AREA, BUT COULD FORM ANYWHERE
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36. THE SECOND AREA IS ALONG THE SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE LOW IS FORECAST
TO GENERALLY BE SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
SUGGESTED IT COULD EITHER EXPAND OR RETROGRADE CLOSER TO THE AREA.
THIS COULD GIVE A CONVERGENCE ZONE SOMEWHERE ALONG OR SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 40. FINALLY, STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. OF THE THREE, THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT IMPACTING THE AREA IS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST OF THE AREA, AND THEN MOVE INTO
FAR EASTERN COLORADO AROUND 4-6PM MT. FROM THERE, STORMS WOULD TRY
TO PUSH EAST INTO THE AREA, POTENTIALLY LINKING UP WITH THE
ADDITIONAL STORM AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. STORMS WOULD THEN CLUSTER
AND PUSH THEIR WAY EAST THROUGH THE AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT IF EITHER STORM DEVELOPMENT ZONE MOVES INTO THE
AREA (HIGHER CHANCE OF THE SOUTHERN LINE SETTING UP AND KEEPING
STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR). THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE WITH THE EARLIER STORMS AS SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD
HAVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KTS, CAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG, AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 8 C/KM. BASED ON THIS AND THE ANALOGS, INITIAL STORMS
WOULD HAVE THE CHANCE TO HAVE HAIL UP TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE
CHANCE FOR TORNADOES IS A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE DUE TO FORECAST WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE BEING IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS, LEADING TO EITHER
STRAIGHT OR ANTI-CYCLONIC HODOGRAPHS. WOULD NEED TO WATCH FOR
MODIFICATION AND WHERE ANY BOUNDARIES SETUP. WIND GUSTS WOULD COME
INTO PLAY AS STORMS BECOME MORE PULSEY AND CLUSTER TOGETHER, LIKELY
GOING INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THOUGH, ALL HAZARDS
WOULD REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THERE ARE A FEW FAILURE POINTS. THE FIRST IS IF THE UPPER TROUGH
PUSHES MORE EAST OR SOUTH AS THE BOUNDARY IN THE NORTH WOULD LIKELY
LEAVE THE AREA FASTER AND THE BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH WOULD BE PUSHED
OUT OF THE AREA. THE SECOND FAILURE POINT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A
CAP OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION REMAINING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE HAS AROUND
50-100 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME AS THE STORMS TRY
TO PUSH EAST. THE THIRD IS FOR UPSTREAM ANVILS TO STABILIZE THE AIR,
AND LIMIT HOW MUCH THE STORMS CAN PUSH EAST. THIS IS ESPECIALLY A
CONCERN IF THE CAP DOES REMAIN IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH THESE FAILURE POINTS, THEY WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND HOW MUCH OF THE AREA SEES SEVERE WEATHER.
MOST OF THEM WOULD PUSH STORMS NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA, LEAVING
ONLY THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO SEE
STORMS. SO LOOK FOR UPDATES AS THIS EVENT COULD PLAY OUT IN A COUPLE
OF DIFFERENT WAYS. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS IN TIMING, WITH STORMS
UNLIKELY TO FORM OR ENTER THE AREA UNTIL AFTER 3PM MT.
AS MENTIONED, STORMS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHICH WOULD
KEEP CLOUD COVER ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH VARYING WINDS
DUE TO THE OUTFLOW. WITH THE OUTFLOWS, CLOUD COVER, AND MOISTURE,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STAY IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH 50S POSSIBLE
ANYWHERE THAT CAN CLEAR OUT EARLY IN THE NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1247 PM MDT FRI AUG 8 2025
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE SUNDAY, AIDED BY A SLOW-MOVING UPPER WAVE. THIS WILL KEEP
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR SUN AFTERNOON-EVENING,
INCREASING WITH WESTWARD EXTENT. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS, ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT INSTABILITY VALUES ON SUN WILL
BE LOWER RELATIVE TO SAT.
CAN'T RULE OUT SOME LINGERING PRECIP INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREAL. OTHERWISE, NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS. HIGH
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO RISE FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ON MON TO
MID/UPPER 90S WED-FRI.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1030 AM MDT SAT AUG 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO START THIS TAF PERIOD. MAIN FOCUS
WILL BE FOR INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS WELL WITH
THE CURRENT HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE
GLD TERMINAL AFTER 00Z. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS AS WELL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...ERWIN
AVIATION...TRIGG
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