900
FXUS63 KGLD 111742
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER TODAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 50 MPH LOOK TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD
WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 100 BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME LINGERING STRATUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. AN
OVERALL COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S; I DID NUDGE HIGHS UP SOME AS WE HAVE BEEN
WARMING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME
ROGUE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA AS WELL
THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE
TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORM THAT WERE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER I DO HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN
FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
OVERLAPPING SURFACE VORTICITY AND SFC-3KM CAPE INCREASING TO
100-150 J/KG. HOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES BEING WEAK ARE SOME OF THE VARIABLES
PLAYING AGAINST IT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE LOW.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE LOW WRAPS AROUND
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 15-20% CURRENTLY IN DEVELOPMENT. DEPENDENT
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE
RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, DECATUR
AND NORTON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING MID MORNING.
TUESDAY, THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NW. LIGHT WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE HIGH. WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND IN
THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THEREFORE LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR THE DAY. I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PALMER TUESDAY ALSO
DOES LOOK TO BE THE START OF THE WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 144 PM MDT SUN AUG 10 2025
TO START THE EXTENDED PERIOD OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CURRENTLY
APPEARS TO BE SIMILAR TO THIS WEEKEND BUT MAIN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FEATURES LOOK TO BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AS THE
REGION IS MORE IN THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. SEMI
NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO RETURN AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SET UP ACROSS THE SW CONUS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES WITH
CONVECTION OFF OF THE ROCKIES BUT THE QUESTION WILL BE IF THE
MOISTURE IS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH AS THIS CUTS OFF THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FEED THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE. AS THE WEEK GOES ON
TROUGHING THEN LOOKS TO RETURN TO THE SW CONUS AS A SURFACE HIGH
RETURNS TO THE SE CONUS. THIS WILL THEN RETURN THE MONSOONAL
FLOW TO COLORADO BRINGING SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DAILY
SHOWERS AND STORMS AS THE MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY BACK TO THE
REGION.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES ANOTHER GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS FORECAST
TO OCCUR STARTING TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 90S TO
TRIPLE DIGITS OCCUR TOWARDS THE END OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. NO
SIGNALS FOR GUSTY OR STRONG SYNOPTIC WINDS IS CURRENTLY SEEN
EITHER LEADING ME TO THINK THAT WINDS THAT HAVE MAINLY BEEN
SEEN THUS FAR THIS SUMMER WILL REMAINS WITH DIURNAL GUSTS OF
20-30 MPH POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1024 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
PESKY STRATUS DOES NOT WANT TO MOVE OUT OF MCK SO HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO AS THE STRATUS SEEMS TO BE MORE SCATTERED THAN ANYTHING VIA
SATELLITE. OTHER THAN THAT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR GLD NW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LIGHT, SOME SPORADIC WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING AROUND THE MID
AFTERNOON HOWEVER DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO CONTINUOUSLY SHIFT FROM 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD BUT REMAIN LIGHT. FOR MCK WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AROUND 01Z THEN START TO CONTINUOUSLY
SHIFT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING FOR EACH TERMINAL ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE FOR MCK OVERNIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS LESS THAN 30% TO
WARRANT A PROB30 AT THIS TIME FOR EITHER TERMINAL.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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