762
FXUS63 KGLD 121722
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1122 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 100
BY FRIDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 252 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
FOG THIS MORNING EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF BY
15Z, BUT COULD BE DENSE AT TIMES. OTHERWISE, EXPECTING A PARTLY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH TEMPERATURES A TAD WARMER COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LIGHT EAST
TO NORTHEAST WINDS. CAMS HAVE GONE DRY SO NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1140 AM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA LEADING TO
LIGHT WINDS. A WEAK SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED JUST NORTH OF THE CWA
WHICH IS LEADING TO SOME LINGERING STRATUS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS. AN
OVERALL COOLER DAY IS IN STORE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH HIGHS
FORECAST IN THE LOWER 80S; I DID NUDGE HIGHS UP SOME AS WE HAVE BEEN
WARMING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS. SOME
ROGUE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING. WATCHING
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG SUBTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON, A WEAK
500MB SHORTWAVE ALSO LOOKS TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE CWA AS WELL
THAT MAY PROVIDE SOME EXTRA LIFT. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN PLACE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE
TO MEAGER LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS UP
TO 50 MPH LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN HAZARD WITH ANY STORM THAT WERE
TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER I DO HAVE A LITTLE CONCERN
FOR LANDSPOUT FORMATION DUE TO PROXIMITY OF THE LOW AND
OVERLAPPING SURFACE VORTICITY AND SFC-3KM CAPE INCREASING TO
100-150 J/KG. HOWEVER DUE TO THE WEAK WINDS AND ANY SURFACE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES BEING WEAK ARE SOME OF THE VARIABLES
PLAYING AGAINST IT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS ACROSS
WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO DUE TO INFLUENCES FROM THE
PALMER DIVIDE AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE LOW.
TONIGHT, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY MOVE THROUGH
NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE LOW WRAPS AROUND
CONFIDENCE IS AROUND 15-20% CURRENTLY IN DEVELOPMENT. DEPENDENT
ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT SOME PATCHY DENSE
RADIATION FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS HITCHCOCK, RED WILLOW, DECATUR
AND NORTON COUNTIES AROUND 12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING MID MORNING.
TUESDAY, THE AXIS OF THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA AS A
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES IN FROM THE NW. LIGHT WINDS ARE AGAIN FORECAST
ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO THE HIGH. WITH THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND IN
THE INCOMING SURFACE HIGH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THEREFORE LIMITING ANY RAINFALL CHANCES
FOR THE DAY. I CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME TERRAIN INDUCED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PALMER TUESDAY ALSO
DOES LOOK TO BE THE START OF THE WARMING TREND FOR THE AREA
WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1246 PM MDT MON AUG 11 2025
WEDNESDAY A SURFACE HIGH BEGINS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND EXPAND NORTHWARD INTO THE TRI-STATE AREA
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO THE AREA AND
PEAKING FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ARE
CURRENTLY FORECAST. HEAT INDICES A CURRENTLY FORECAST TO REMAIN
NEAR THE AIR TEMPERATURE SO NO HEAT RELATED PRODUCTS ARE
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THOSE IN RED WILLOW,
DECATUR, NORTON, AND GRAHAM COUNTIES ARE FORECAST TO SEE THE
HIGHER DEW POINTS CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 60S SO IF
TEMPERATURES DO TREND UP A FEW DEGREES IF THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES A BIT FURTHER TO THE NORTH THEN SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES
MAY APPROACH 105 ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. WINDS MAY ALSO INCREASE
WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY AS GUIDANCE HINTS AT SOME SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO WHICH WOULD HELP INCREASE
THE WIND FIELDS. WINDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED
WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 30 MPH EACH OF THOSE DAYS, SO NOT
ANYTHING CRAZY FOR THE HIGH PLAINS BUT MORE NOTICEABLE THAN
MOST DAYS SO FAR THIS SUMMER. THERE ARE DISCREPANCIES ON
EXACTLY WHERE THE LOWS WILL SET UP AS A FURTHER NORTH LOW WOULD
DECREASE THE WINDS.
THE HOT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE AREA HELPING TO STABILIZE THE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S. THE TROUGHING DOES
APPEAR TO BE RATHER BROAD FOR THIS WEEKEND WHICH BRINGS SOME LOW
CONFIDENCE TO SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL AS IT MAY HAVE TO TAKE
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO HELP DEVELOP ANYTHING NOTEWORTHY WHICH
THE GFS DOES SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL WHICH IS WHAT LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE TO THE RAINFALL FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
ALL IN ALL IT DOESN'T LOOK TO BE COMPLETELY DRY FOR THE NEXT
WEEK BUT THE SIGNALS CURRENTLY ARE NOT THERE FOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST AT EACH TERMINAL.
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO VEER THROUGH OUT
THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. FOR GLD
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SPORADIC WIND GUST UP
TO 20 KNOTS FROM 22-01Z TODAY. BREEZIER WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST
TO ENSUE STARTING AROUND 12Z WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
AROUND 25 KNOTS. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. WITH THE SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A SURFACE HIGH THINK PRECIPITATION IS UNLIKELY BUT
HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO THIS SIGNAL FOR EACH TERMINAL.
AT THIS TIME IF PRECIPITATION WERE TO OCCUR DUE THINK IT WOULD
FAVOR MCK OVER GLD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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