378
FXUS63 KGLD 130055
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
655 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 90S BY WEDNESDAY AND NEAR 100
BY FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 652 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A 700MB SURFACE HIGH IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE TO THE REGION LEADING TO SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. WE MAY SEE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON FAVORING WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA DUE TO HIGHER
MIXING HEIGHTS IN PLACE. THERE IS A SLIM CHANCE OF A ROGUE
SHOWER OR STORM EAST OF HIGHWAY 25 THIS AFTERNOON ON THE BACK
SIDE OF A 500MB JET AS WE LIE IN THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
700MB JET; HOWEVER WITH THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE DUE TO THE LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA CONFIDENCE IS AROUND
10-14% IN THE FORMATION OF ANY STORMS. SHOULD ONE DEVELOP GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS TO 40 MPH WOULD BE THE PRIMARY ISSUE.
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO VEER
AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS AN 850MB JET BEGINS TO
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS AS A RESULT WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS WELL TO AROUND 10-15 MPH SUSTAINED. THE RAP AND NAM SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FLOW. DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE I DO HAVE MY DOUBTS IF
THAT WOULD TURN INTO ANYTHING OTHER THAN CLOUD COVER BUT THE 850MB
JET MAY BE ENOUGH TO FORM A SPOTTY SHOWER SO WILL MAINTAIN LOW END
RAINFALL CHANCES.
WEDNESDAY, A SIMILAR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
REMAINS IN PLACE HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MORE PROMINENT
RESULTING IN A CONTINUED WARMING TREND WITH MOST OF THE AREA
CURRENTLY FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WINDS HOWEVER WILL
BECOME BREEZY STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A 850MB JET
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH WINDS SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. USING THE 700MB JET AS A PROXY FOR WIND
GUST POTENTIAL, WELL THERE ISN'T MUCH OF A JET IN PLACE BUT THE
OVERALL WIND FIELD IS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS SO WIND GUSTS OF 25-30
MPH ARE CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THESE BREEZY WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL AS THE JET
REMAINS IN PLACE, DUE TO CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT MIXING HAVE
INCREASED OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN TO THURSDAY MORNING AS
WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
A SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
CONTINUING BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER DEPENDING ON
FAR EAST THE TROUGH GOES WINDS MAY ACTUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO; WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH REMAIN FORECASTED EAST
OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE. RIDGING HOWEVER IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AS WE CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE
UPPER 90S, WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW 100S ALSO.
FRIDAY, WILL SEE A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
REINFORCING THE WIND FIELD AGAIN IN THE 700MB LEVEL. THE ECMWF
IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE JET AROUND 35 KNOTS; SO IF
THIS DOES VERIFY THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED BY AROUND 10 MPH. HOWEVER AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF IT
AS THE GFS IS TYPICALLY THE BETTER PERFORMING WIND MODEL FOR THE
AREA AND ONLY HAS THE JET AROUND 25 KNOTS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS
A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL HOWEVER. FRIDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S. IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE EJECTION INTO THE AREA THEN WINDS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WOULD PROMOTE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 507 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
LIGHT NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS AT 23Z
TUESDAY MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
BEGINS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THESE DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z AS THIS SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
DEEPENS. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATING VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRIGG
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...TRIGG
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