332
FXUS63 KGLD 131838
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1238 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FAVORING
EASTERN COLORADO.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S ARE FORECAST FOR THE AREA AS AN UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES. WINDS HAVE
PICKED UP AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. WITH THIS, WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 15-20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THIS EVENING, THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR
A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO EASTERN
COLORADO. WITH THE UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE
AREA (COMPARED TO RECENT WEEKS), THE SHOWERS WOULD STRUGGLE TO MOVE
INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND LIKELY NOT MOVE EAST BEYOND THE
COLORADO BORDER. IF STORMS DID MOVE INTO THE AREA, THE POTENTIAL
THREATS WOULD BE LIGHTNING AND MAYBE A 50-60 MPH WIND GUST.
TONIGHT, A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH AND WEST MAY SCRAPE PARTS OF
THE AREA, BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER SUBSIDENCE, LOWER MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY, AND THE ADDITIONAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE AREA CLEAR. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND 15-20
MPH THROUGH THE NIGHT FROM THE SOUTH, WHICH SHOULD HELP MIX THE
LOWER ATMOSPHERE AND KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
TOMORROW, A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
SURFACE LOW'S POSITIONING AND STRENGTH WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ARE A BIT MORE. WITH THIS AND
THE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER AROUND 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.
TOMORROW LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CENTER OF LOWER
PRESSURE COULD BE MORE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER
TERRAIN. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING BROAD, THE SURFACE LOW'S
FORCING MAY BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND GIVE THE
AREA A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. EVEN SO, OVERALL CONCERN REMAINS
CURRENTLY LOW AS THE DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND INHIBIT HOW STORMS COULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. WE ALSO
COULD HAVE ANVILS DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND HELP CREATE A CAP BY
COOLING TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAYTIME HOURS, FURTHER INHIBITING
STORM CHANCES. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
EITHER THE MOISTURE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST, OR THAT STORMS SURVIVE
FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IF A STRONG STORM COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH A
STORM IN RELATIVELY DRIER AIR COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TOMORROW NIGHT, THERE COULD BE A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THAT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BUOYED BY EITHER THEIR OWN
OUTFLOWS OR FROM A WEAK MCV. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE
A MIX OF CLOUDY AND CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE SOUTH
AT 10-15 MPH. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S AND
70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 652 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2025
FRIDAY, WILL SEE A GRADUAL PATTERN CHANGE THROUGH THE DAY. A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN NORTHEAST COLORADO
REINFORCING THE WIND FIELD AGAIN IN THE 700MB LEVEL. THE ECMWF
IS CURRENTLY THE STRONGEST WITH THE JET AROUND 35 KNOTS; SO IF
THIS DOES VERIFY THEN THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE
INCREASED BY AROUND 10 MPH. HOWEVER AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF IT
AS THE GFS IS TYPICALLY THE BETTER PERFORMING WIND MODEL FOR THE
AREA AND ONLY HAS THE JET AROUND 25 KNOTS. HAVE BUMPED UP WINDS
A LITTLE BIT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL HOWEVER. FRIDAY WILL
BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS IT APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
FAVORED FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW 100S. IF THE LOW IS A LITTLE SLOWER
ON THE EJECTION INTO THE AREA THEN WINDS WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AND WOULD PROMOTE MORE OF A DOWNSLOPING EFFECT
WHICH IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
FOR KGLD & KMCK... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE SHOULD REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 KTS. BE
ALERT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR TONIGHT AROUND 5Z-12Z AS A LOW
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 40-45 KTS A FEW HUNDRED FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...TRIGG
AVIATION...KAK
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