082
FXUS63 KGLD 141707
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1107 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
- LOW CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND, FAVORING
EASTERN COLORADO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN OVER THE FOUR CORNERS THIS WEEK
WILL MOVE EAST AND SETTLE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND
TOMORROW. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING
AROUND THE RIDGE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CAMS SHOW
CONVECTION INITIATING AROUND 21-22Z THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE
PALMER DIVIDE, AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS. STORMS WILL TEND TO MERGE
INTO A CLUSTER THIS EVENING OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
AREA CENTERED AROUND YUMA COUNTY. ENSEMBLE AVERAGE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SUGGEST BOTH WILL BE RATHER LIMITED.
NONETHELESS, IN THE HOT AND DRY ENVIRONMENT WOULD EXPECT TO SEE
A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY BLOWING DUST GIVEN THE
RECENT DRY SPELL. STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z AND
THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1236 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
TODAY, A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
THE SURFACE LOW'S POSITIONING AND STRENGTH WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE ARE A BIT MORE. WITH THIS AND
THE LOWER LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION, HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO BE A BIT WARMER AROUND 100 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
SKIES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY.
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE CENTER OF LOWER PRESSURE COULD
BE MORE OVER THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN. WITH
THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINING BROAD, THE SURFACE LOW'S FORCING MAY
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE UPPER SUBSIDENCE AND GIVE THE AREA A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. EVEN SO, OVERALL CONCERN REMAINS
CURRENTLY LOW AS THE DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO BE OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND INHIBIT HOW STORMS COULD MAINTAIN THEMSELVES. WE
ALSO COULD HAVE ANVILS DEVELOP WEST OF THE AREA AND HELP CREATE
A CAP BY COOLING TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE DAYTIME HOURS, FURTHER
INHIBITING STORM CHANCES. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS A
20% CHANCE THAT EITHER THE MOISTURE REMAINS FAR ENOUGH WEST, OR
THAT STORMS SURVIVE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE
POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT IF A STRONG STORM
COULD DEVELOP, THOUGH A STORM IN RELATIVELY DRIER AIR COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS.
TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE A CLUSTER OR TWO OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THAT PUSH THROUGH THE AREA, BUOYED BY EITHER THEIR OWN OUTFLOWS
OR FROM A WEAK MCV. OTHERWISE, MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD SEE A
MIX OF CLOUDY AND CLEAR SKIES WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
SOUTH AT 10-15 MPH. WITH THIS, TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE MAIN
INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
AROUND 100 EACH DAY. THAT BEING SAID, AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
PUSH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, KEEPING THE AREA IN ALMOST PERSISTENT
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW IS FORECAST TO ALLOW
WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25-30 MPH, NOT ENOUGH DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO MOVE IN AND GIVE US CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS WITH RH
GENERALLY 20%+. THE UPPER TROUGH'S POSITIONING WOULD ALLOW SOME
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THE
RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS, THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND SEVERITY IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE ON THE LOWER SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SETUP FOR ABOUT ONE TO TWO SEVERE STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, FAVORING EASTERN COLORADO.
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 100S. IF THE
RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY AS HIGHLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SAYING, IT MAY KEEP
THE MAIN NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND TRULY KEEP OUR STORM
CHANCES BELOW 10%. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS BOTH THE FLOW MAY BE TOO WEAK DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE RIDGE AXIS GETS, AND WE MAY KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 30% RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
STORMS COULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-09Z.
THESE STORMS, IF THEY FORM, COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KTS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. THE OTHER CONDITION TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40-45 KTS. THE REASON I DIDN'T INCLUDE
IT IS THAT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW COULD MOVE OVER BOTH
TERMINALS, PREVENTING THE SOUTHERLY JET FROM IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL. WINDS WOULD THEN BE A BIT VARIABLE AT A FEW HUNDRED
FEET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 KTS INSTEAD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page