051
FXUS63 KGLD 141749
AFDGLD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1149 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AS THE MAIN HAZARD. LARGE HAIL AND BLOWING
DUST ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. FAVORED AREA IS EASTERN COLORADO AND
ADJACENT COUNTIES.
- GENERALLY DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1147 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
FOR THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 100
DEGREES. A FEW LOCALES EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 COULD STILL HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 100-105 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ROUGHLY FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE AREA WHICH IS CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
MORE FROM THE NORTH FOR LOCALES NEAR THE TRI-STATE BORDER. FOR
LOCALES UNDERNEATH THE CENTER OF THE LOW, THE WINDS WILL LIKELY VARY
IN DIRECTION WHILE TRYING TO REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH.
ON TOP OF VARYING THE WINDS, THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS ALSO
FORECAST TO BE A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CONVERGENCE ZONE SET UP, STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIRE UP
IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES AND TRY TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. THEY ARE FORECAST TO FORM IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH MARGINAL
SUPPORT DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND THE CONTINUED UPPER
SUBSIDENCE. WITH THIS, MOST STORMS ATTEMPTS SHOULD FAIL OR LEAD TO
SHORT LIVED STORMS. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50-60 MPH (70 MAX) WITH THE DRIER AIR ALLOWING FOR HIGHER
DCAPE AND LEADING TO INVERTED V SOUNDINGS. IF A STORM CAN SURVIVE
LONG ENOUGH, LARGE HAIL COULD BECOME A POSSIBILITY WITH MUCAPE
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 9 C/KM.
ANOTHER CONCERN WITH STORMS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHES OF DENSE
BLOWING DUST WITH THE RECENT AND DRY CONDITIONS. WE MAY END UP BEING
TOO MIXED FOR NEAR-ZERO VISIBILITY, BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT, THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO RE-CENTER
FURTHER NORTH WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT BECOMING A BIT MORE DIFFUSE
OVER THE AREA. WITH THIS, THE STORM RISK SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR. WITH WINDS REMAINING FROM THE
SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH AND THE EARLY CLOUD COVER, LOWS SHOULD ONLY DROP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S.
FOR FRIDAY, ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY IS FORECAST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100 AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE UPPER RIDGING. THAT BEING SAID, AN
UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM OVER THE
WESTERN COAST. THIS SHOULD SEND A SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM OVER THE AREA,
WHILE ALSO HELPING THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RECENTER DOWN CLOSER TO
THE AREA. WITH THIS, STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PULLED INTO THE AREA. THE
FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR DEWPOINTS TO DROP INTO THE 40S, WHICH
WOULD LOWER INSTABILITY AND STORM CHANCES WITH THE CONTINUED WEAK
UPPER SUBSIDENCE. THAT BEING SAID, SEVERE STORMS SHOULD BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE FOR ANY
STORM THAT COULD SUSTAIN ITSELF. THE FAVORED AREA WOULD AGAIN BE
EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT COUNTIES.
TOMORROW NIGHT WOULD BE SIMILAR TO TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S WITH SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED AUG 13 2025
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN THE
MAIN INFLUENCE OVER THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 100 EACH DAY. THAT BEING SAID, AN UPPER TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS, KEEPING THE AREA IN
ALMOST PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO ALLOW WIND GUSTS TO REACH 25-30 MPH, NOT ENOUGH
DRY AIR IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO MOVE IN AND GIVE US CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS WITH RH GENERALLY 20%+. THE UPPER TROUGH'S
POSITIONING WOULD ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
AND HELP SPARK SOME STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGHER
TERRAIN IN EASTERN COLORADO. WITH THE RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVELS,
THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND SEVERITY IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BE
ON THE LOWER SIDE. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULD BE REASONABLE IN
THIS SETUP FOR ABOUT ONE TO TWO SEVERE STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING, FAVORING EASTERN COLORADO.
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH THE MID PART OF THE WEEK, THE RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO REFORM AND AMPLIFY OVER THE ROCKIES. AFTER A FEW DAYS IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S, HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 100S. IF THE
RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY AS HIGHLY AS SOME GUIDANCE IS SAYING, IT MAY KEEP
THE MAIN NORTHWEST FLOW NORTH OF THE AREA AND TRULY KEEP OUR STORM
CHANCES BELOW 10%. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT
CURRENTLY FORECAST AS BOTH THE FLOW MAY BE TOO WEAK DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE RIDGE AXIS GETS, AND WE MAY KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN
FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 30% RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT THU AUG 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES. NEAR SURFACE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AT 10-15 KTS. THERE COULD BE A FEW GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
STORMS COULD MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 21-09Z.
THESE STORMS, IF THEY FORM, COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS
OF 40 KTS AND MAYBE SOME HAIL. THE OTHER CONDITION TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AROUND A FEW HUNDRED
FEET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 40-45 KTS. THE REASON I DIDN'T INCLUDE
IT IS THAT THE SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW COULD MOVE OVER BOTH
TERMINALS, PREVENTING THE SOUTHERLY JET FROM IMPACTING EITHER
TERMINAL. WINDS WOULD THEN BE A BIT VARIABLE AT A FEW HUNDRED
FEET WITH SPEEDS AROUND 20 KTS INSTEAD.
GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SHORT TERM...KAK
LONG TERM...KAK
AVIATION...KAK
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